Analytics vs. Feel: Where advanced stats belong in high school basketball

There is a story Kapaun coach John Cherne likes to tell about the power of analytics.

It came during his second year coaching at Kapaun Mount Carmel in a late-season game with the Crusaders trailing, in desperate need of defensive stops. Cherne decided to insert a little-used player off the bench — a substitution that altered the game, sparked the defense and ultimately won Kapaun the game.

Afterward, someone asked Cherne how he knew to make such a bold move at the time.

“It was just a gut feeling,” he said, grinning.

What he chose not to divulge was this “gut feeling” actually originated from a 3x5 note card Cherne stores in the pocket of his jacket during games. In sloppy handwriting, Cherne had scrawled a list of names that were among the best on the team in defensive points allowed per second — an advanced statistic Cherne and his staff track from hours of scouting.

Even though the substitute had played sparingly, he ranked near the best on the team when it came to defense while he was on the court — one glance at a note card told Cherne this.

“It was my gut, but really it wasn’t,” Cherne said. “It was the numbers telling me that.”

The anecdote creates some interesting questions for Cherne and coaches like him.

Can statistics replacing the gut feel of coaching? How are the numbers changing the way basketball is being played? Where do analytical statistics belong at the high school level, if they belong at all?

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“Statistically, I have more information than I would ever need.”

– John Cherne, Kapaun boys coach

Analytics have seen a recent surge in the college and professional game, but advanced statistics have yet to seep into the high school game the same way.

The majority of teams track averages, such as points, rebounds, and turnovers. But advanced statistics replace those with categories such as effective field goal percentage, rebounding percentage, and turnover percentage. A handful of area schools — Kapaun, East, and Derby boys to name a few — have taken their stat-keeping measures a step further.

Cherne and his staff of James Vanek, Drew Culbertson and Will Hiebert create scouting reports so detailed that Cherne says with confidence they are on-par with what college programs are doing.

“I know how many times we’ve dribbled every possession. I know how many times we passed it every possession,” Cherne said. “I know the percentage that a certain player starts left and crosses over right. Honestly, when you look at what all we have, it’s a little overwhelming.”

At East, Joe Jackson has a student, Jackson Drake, film every game and uses the footage to assign a quality rating to every shot attempt. It’s designed to remind East’s players to constantly be striving for the best possible shot.

Instead of just telling his team they need to find better shots, Jackson has a number he can show his team to illustrate his point.

“Sometimes it may feel like we’re taking shots a little too early in possessions or trying to force some things,” Jackson said. “That’s when the stats back it up and you can show it to your guys. It’s just an extra thing for your athletes to see and hopefully buy into what you’re teaching.”

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“I’m not saying they’re not useful, but I haven’t found that they tell me a lot about my team.”

– Randy Jordan, Newton girls coach

While advanced stats are growing in popularity, they remain a luxury at the high school level.

Unless teams pay upwards of $1,000 to advanced scouting services like Hudl or Krossover, they don’t have access — or time — to track the kind of information they may wish for.

“I wish we could get those kinds of stats,” Southeast boys coach Melvin Herring said. “As the games goes on, I have to keep it in my head. If I had it down on paper, then I could show my kids the numbers. But it’s just too time-consuming to track all of that stuff.”

It’s a reminder that while coaches and players at higher levels consider basketball a full-time occupation, many at the high school level don’t — and some coaches argue they shouldn’t at that age.

“You have to remember a lot of high school coaches are also high school teachers and we’ve got papers to grade and lesson plans to make,” Maize girls coach Jarrod Handy said. “And then you’re also dealing with 16-, 17-, 18-year-old girls, who also have homework and boyfriends and parents and all of this other stuff. It’s not their full-time job like it is in college. You have maybe two or three girls that are planning to go play college basketball, and then the rest are doing it for the enjoyment of the game.”

Some coaches worry that a page full of numbers would only bog down their players.

Jordan recently subscribed to Hudl and has access to advanced stats for the first time. He chooses not to share them with his team because he feels they could over-complicate things. Instead, he only tracks turnovers and points off turnovers.

“I believe that tells me a lot more about my team and how we’re doing than any advanced stat,” Jordan said. “I’m sure those other stats are valuable in some way, but for me, the more simple I can keep the game for my players and for me, the more I can focus on the things I know need to be fixed.”

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“I don’t think it affects how you play, but it definitely plants a little seed in the back of your mind.”

– Thomas Wells, Kapaun player

The numbers are easy to digest after the games, but what about during?

“I don’t necessarily think they make me play any differently, but they’re definitely something I like to look at,” Wells said. “I just think that they are really interesting and I like to know that kind of stuff.”

East point guard Michael McKinney agreed with Wells, dismissing the notion that any player is worried about his assist-to-turnover ratio or the efficiency of a mid-range jumper during actual games.

“I feel like with our team, we’re going to play the way we’re going to play no matter what,” McKinney said. “The stats are interesting to look at after the game, but during the game we don’t care about the stats, we just want to win.”

So if the players aren’t actively thinking about the information during games, how do coaches effectively use the numbers to their benefit?

At Kapaun, Cherne created a spreadsheet for every one of his practice drills. The drill must meet the criteria of helping Kapaun improve in the “four factors” — shooting, rebounding, turnovers, and free throws — of winning in basketball to remain in the practice rotation.

“If something didn’t relate to what we were trying to accomplish with the four factors, then I got rid of it,” Cherne said. “So now everything that we do, every drill, every practice is centered around us improving with our four factors.”

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“We care about stats, but we care more about winning games.”

– Antwain Scales, South girls coach

Scales has led the South girls to four straight Class 6A championships without ever looking at an advanced statistic about his team.

He never felt the need to track them, rather trusting his instincts as a coach to lead his team.

“Coach (Steve) Eck used to say, ‘Stats are facts,’ ” Scales said.

There remains a faction in coaching circles that believe numbers will never be able to replace feel in coaching.

Analytics can’t brace you for the length and athleticism in Heights’ 3-2 zone. Numbers can’t quantify the strength and agility of an Israel Barnes baseline drive. Stats can’t tell you the force Matt Pile plays with in the post.

“There’s always going to be that feel to coaching,” Jordan said. “When it really comes down to it, it’s about the players and can your players make the plays and can you put your players in the right positions to make those plays? You have to know your kids like that. For me as a coach, those kinds of things will always be more valuable than looking at any numbers.”

Advanced stats aren’t meant to be the end-all, be-all to coaching decisions.

“I don’t think I have an advantage over anybody, but I do think I’m better prepared,” Cherne said. “We all have instincts on if we think a kid is playing good or bad, but as coaches we’re human beings too and sometimes we have bad days. Now I have information to back up those gut instincts and I think that the numbers help minimize those bad days.”

This story was originally published January 5, 2017 at 5:20 PM with the headline "Analytics vs. Feel: Where advanced stats belong in high school basketball."