Anxiety and urgency as Wichita State prepares for whatever happens Sunday
A tuba weighs 50 pounds. A drum coffin, used to protect drums, not bury, weighs 105 pounds. The WuShock costume is 30 pounds of fabric, padding and fake wheat.
This is how Wichita State’s trip to the NCAA Tournament starts — not with a bracket or in a committee room. It starts in front of a computer screen, filling out forms to prepare for a chartered plane that will leave Yingling Aviation at Wichita Eisenhower National Airport on.…
Well, that’s the problem. Nobody knows when. Or bound for where.
“My worst nightmare,” said Ruth Matz, director of administration and personnel, who plays a large role in getting the Shocker basketball traveling circus right with the NCAA and TSA, on the plane and cleared for takeoff.
The possibility of playing Tuesday or Wednesday in the First Four in Dayton, Ohio, adds a layer of crazy and uncertainty WSU administrators are trying to fight with organization and experience. On Sunday, CBS will announce the bracket in a two-hour show — new length this season — with a similar format that is sure to take more time for discussion and analysis and delay the reveal.
More waiting. More uncertainty.
WSU (24-8) is a polarizing candidate for one of the 36 at-large spots in the 68-team field. The Shockers are the darling of the eye test, favored by anyone who watches them more than once, loves defense and understands great guard play. Their list of impressive wins, however, consists of Utah and, perhaps, Northern Iowa. WSU lost five non-conference games to some of the better teams it played, three without guard Fred VanVleet, and lost twice to Northern Iowa and at Illinois State.
The Shockers are viewed as something of a borderline NCAA team. That may mean they are sent to Dayton on Tuesday or Wednesday for what the NCAA calls the First Four, actually a play-in round to advance to the main 64-team bracket. The last four at-large teams head to Dayton to play for the right to play in second-round games two days later.
They could end up in the main bracket, perhaps as a No. 8 seed, as ESPN’s Joe Lunardi predicts, in places such as Oklahoma City, Brooklyn or Des Moines.
By Saturday, the possibility of WSU dropping to the NIT seemed to diminish. WSU, as the Missouri Valley Conference regular-season champion, holds an automatic bid to the NIT, a spot in the 32-team tournament it would gladly cede to Creighton or Kansas State.
You know, in a friendly gesture.
The possibility of missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011 adds unwelcome uncertainty to Sunday’s announcement. The possibility of flying Monday to Dayton for a Tuesday game, followed by a trip to a first-round site, would be welcome because it means the Shockers win. It also adds a crazy timetable WSU hasn’t dealt with in its four previous appearances.
“Anxiety,” said basketball director of operations Dominic Okon, who handles travel plans for the team. “It’s my job to get the team from A to B … without any notice. When people notice what I do, then there’s a problem.”
On Friday, Matz prepared the manifest that lists names as they appear on drivers licenses, birthdates and weights for all, plus equipment such as trombones, trumpets and flags. If you are one of the 150 or so people in WSU’s traveling party — players, coaches, trainers, cheerleaders, administrators, tuba players and mascot — she warned you to pack for a week of travel that could start in Dayton and end in St. Louis, Raleigh, Des Moines or elsewhere.
“That was not something you want to spring on people,” she said.
Teams that win in Dayton leave after the game for the next site. Losers wait until the next day. In past seasons, the committee limited travel for the First Four winners, sending them to nearby sites and usually within the Eastern time zone. Teams that win on Tuesday play Thursday; Wednesday winners on Friday.
The process will speed up when (or if) WSU’s fate is announced during the NCAA show. The Shockers may leave as early as Monday morning for Dayton, where media obligations begin at 4:20 p.m. with practice at UD Arena at 5:05 p.m. for the first team scheduled. The NCAA will tell Matz and Okon that a plane is available for a time window of a few hours and it’s their job to lock in the departure time and ground transportation. The NCAA assigns hotels.
Okon and Matz downloaded the manuals for each site — largely similar documents adapted to arenas and cities — so they can move quickly when (or if) WSU’s opponent and destination is revealed.
Matz’s first job is to submit participant lists for players and pass lists for cheerleaders and the pep band. Okon will read the manual and wait for the NCAA and TV networks to set game times, which can take another hour or more after the bracket announcement, to plan WSU’s itinerary. If the Shockers play in Dayton, he will take part in a conference call on Sunday night. If it’s later in the week, the conference call likely takes place on Monday.
“If we are in the play-in games, if we have to stay until midnight or whenever to get all our after-practice stuff done … equipment, practice stuff, we’ll do it,” Okon said. “We have enough people and experience to make sure we’re ready. Laundered, packed and ready to go.”
Jeff Chapman, a student manager, wants an early reveal for WSU so he has time to prepare scouting videos for the coaches before they leave for the night.
He is in charge of downloading video of WSU’s opponents for coaches, who will spend Sunday evening developing plans and calling coaching friends for insights. WSU subscribes to the video library of Synergy Sport Tech, as most schools do, to scout opponents. Chapman will put recent games, perhaps the past five or so, on the Macs for coach Gregg Marshall, assistants Greg Heiar, Isaac Brown and Kyle Lindsted, and consultant Chris Jans, a former WSU assistant who helps with scouting.
Chapman will also download video of important players and situations that coaches request. Heiar usually wants clips of baskets made by a team against man-to-man defense and against zone defenses. Coaches could ask for in-bound plays, types of defenses or other categories. If it’s Dayton, Chapman will grab the first opponent, plus the three possible opponents for later in the week. If WSU is slotted into a first-round game on Thursday or Friday, coaches need the opponent and the two second-round options.
In the ticket office, associate athletic director Russell Wilkins is prepared for the NCAA or NIT. Season-ticket holders received a letter allowing them to select tickets for Dayton and the eight first-round sites. For the NCAA, tickets are handed out at the site.
If it’s the NIT, tickets go on sale Sunday night on goshockers.com. That possibility produced groans in the ticket office on Friday.
“We’ve already started working on letters to go out for the NIT,” Wilkins said. “We’re ready for every opportunity.”
Four-plus months of basketball come down to a few seconds on a two-hour selection show. Get your computers ready.
Paul Suellentrop: 316-269-6760, @paulsuellentrop
NCAA Tournament selection show
▪ 4:30 p.m., KWCH, Ch. 12
NIT selection show
▪ 7:30 p.m., ESPNU
In, out, where and when?
While the trend in bracket predictions looked positive on Saturday for Wichita State, the Shockers won’t feel secure until their school is shown during Sunday’s selection show. The past four seasons, the Shockers felt strong with RPIs ranked No. 12 in 2012, No. 37 in 2013, an automatic bid in 2014 and No. 17 last season.
WSU’s RPI ranks No. 46 as of Saturday.
“I’m pretty confident we’ll be in the field of 68,” WSU senior Ron Baker said. “If we’re not, it’s going to be a depressing feeling. I’ll be ready for it and go from there.”
WSU’s biggest minus is its 1-2 record against the top 50 of the RPI and a 3-5 record against teams ranked 51-100. After a win over No. 6 Utah, its next best is over No. 68 Northern Iowa. WSU played 20 games against Missouri Valley Conference opponents, went 17-3, and did not earn a top-50 victory, thanks to a conference ranked No. 13 nationally.
The Shockers are counting on the NCAA selection committee factoring in November injuries that robbed them of guard Fred VanVleet for three of those top-100 losses (Southern Cal, Alabama, Iowa) and center Anton Grady for Iowa. The committee considers injuries, although it won’t disregard losses or invent wins because of them.
On its side are 23 wins against NCAA Division I opponents, a convincing margin of victory over Utah, no disastrous losses and a non-conference strength of schedule ranked No. 12. It is also knows that committee members can watch as many games as they want and unanimously, it appears, observers count WSU as a team strong enough to play in the NCAA Tournament, while lacking an equally strong resume.
Baker’s confidence is backed up by many of Saturday’s bracket predictions.
Where the bracket elite see the Shockers
CBSSports.com: No. 11 seed vs. Michigan in Dayton
ESPN.com: No. 9 vs. Southern Cal in St. Louis
FoxSports.com: No. 9 vs. Texas Tech in Brooklyn
Warrennolan.com: No. 11 vs. Saint Mary’s in Dayton
USA Today: No. 11 vs. Monmouth in Dayton
Sports Illustrated: No. 10 seed vs. Colorado, South Region
Yahoo.com: No. 11 seed
Bracketmatrix.com: Composite No. 10 seed, included in 88 of the 97 brackets surveyed.
How computers, statistics see the Shockers
While the RPI is the most well-known of the tools available to the 10-person NCAA selection committee, reliance on the RPI is less than commonly thought. This could be good news for WSU, which has an RPI ranked No. 46, iffy territory in many years.
“The committee doesn’t spend anywhere near as much time looking at or talking about RPI as I thought before I got on the committee,” Creighton athletic director Bruce Rasmussen said in November.
While the RPI is used, other statistical tools have gained prominence in recent seasons. Ken Pomeroy’s ranking systems is seen as increasingly important and that work in WSU’s favor. Pomeroy ranks WSU No. 11 nationally, a place that he says would be unprecedented to omit from the at-large pool. In the past five seasons, No. 27 Iowa in 2013 is highest-ranked team not included.
“My thought is that if the committee is selecting the 36 best at-large teams then they clearly should be in,” Pomeroy wrote in an email on Friday. “If the committee is selecting the 36 most accomplished teams, then it's a more difficult problem.”
Pomeroy’s calculations love the Shockers, in part, because of margin of victory. WSU wins by a margin of 14 points (19.1 in Missouri Valley Conference games), a number that includes a 17-point win over Utah.
Six of its eight losses are by five points or less. The RPI does not include margin of victory, a factor Pomeroy states possesses predictive value for determining the strength of a team. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index also weighs margin of victory.
Ken Pomeroy: No. 11
Nolan Power Index: No. 16
KPI Sports: No. 35
ESPN BPI: No. 26
Sagarin: No. 25
In a recent podcast, Matt Norlander of CBSSports.com said that committee chairman Joe Castiglione told him he checks kenpom.com daily.
“He did tell me that it is about what teams are better than (another), and not necessarily resume,” Norlander said. “As always, they qualify it. They’re going to take what teams they think are the best, unless their resumes are enough of a deterrent to kind of push them out. He looks at Sagarin and KPI and kenpom and those things are taken heavily into account, not just by him but by many committee members.”
How the First Four works
The Shockers could get sent to Dayton, Ohio, with seven other schools for a game Tuesday or Wednesday. Winners advance to the main bracket to play Thursday or Friday. WSU would be one of the four final at-large teams selected and play for the right to advance.
The other four teams are No. 16 seeds from the pool of automatic bids.
Games are played in 13,435-seat UD Arena on the campus of the University of Dayton. They are televised by TruTV at 5:30 and 8 p.m. both nights.
The winners fly after the game to their next site. The committee minimizes travel by placing them nearby and generally in the Eastern time zone. St. Louis (359 miles) is the closest site to Dayton, followed by Raleigh, N.C. (512), and Des Moines (589).
Tuesday’s winners play on Thursday; Wednesday’s winners on Friday.
VCU, a First Four team in 2011, started in Dayton and advanced to Chicago and San Antonio before reaching the Final Four in Houston. Last season, Dayton played in its home arena and advanced to Columbus, Ohio for the next round.
Paul Suellentrop: 316-269-6760, @paulsuellentrop
This story was originally published March 12, 2016 at 3:30 PM with the headline "Anxiety and urgency as Wichita State prepares for whatever happens Sunday."