Ten bold player predictions and a season forecast for Wichita State basketball team
The Wichita State men’s basketball team will open the 2023-24 season at 6:30 p.m. Monday with a game against Lipscomb at Koch Arena.
To prepare fans for the first year of a new coach in Paul Mills and a mostly-new roster, Eagle beat reporter Taylor Eldridge has come up with 10 bold predictions on 10 different players entering the season.
All signs point toward future success for Mills, but it seems lofty given the current roster construction to expect that success to materialize in his first year. Those who have coached with Mills rave about his attention to detail. Those who coach with him now and play for him are confident in his plan. But this looks like more than a one-year turnaround.
It’s hard to not think the roster has less talent than last season, which isn’t as big of a slight as it may seem. WSU’s 2022-23 team did include all-conference point guard Craig Porter Jr., who is currently in the NBA with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and uber-talented Jaykwon Walton, now an expected starter for a borderline top-25 team in Memphis.
What WSU does have working for it is a new system under Mills, who is renowned for his X-and-O’s strategy in coaching circles, and what should be improved cohesion on the team. Chemistry can be an underrated trait for a college basketball team, and if WSU can click in that regard, the lack of a true point guard and depth in general might not matter as much.
In the end, it’s probably safe to assume WSU will wind up with a similar .500 record to last season. It’s quite a difficult nonconference slate for a first-year coach, and I see the Shockers finishing with a 7-6 record before hitting their stride somewhat to finish 9-9 in American Athletic Conference play.
That would slightly beat out their preseason projection for an eighth-place finish by the league’s coaches. Add it all up and that puts WSU at a 16-15 record entering postseason play, the same amount of regular-season wins as last season.
Kenny Pohto will lead WSU in assists this season
Much has been made about WSU’s apparent absence of a traditional point guard to run the offense, but Mills suggests that concern is overblown in the modern game. Pohto hit his stride during conference play last season when WSU used him as a play-making hub around the perimeter, which led to 2.4 assists per game. I’d expect Mills to come up with even more creative ways to employ the 6-foot-10 Swede and without a clear point guard racking up assists, I think Pohto can average between 3 and 3.5 assists per game to lead the way this season.
Colby Rogers will threaten WSU’s single-season record for 3-pointers made
The last time we saw Rogers on the court, he made 73 triples in 28 games for Siena and ranked top-10 in the country with his 42.9% accuracy during the 2021-22 season. The American Athletic Conference is an obvious step up from the MAAC, but the 6-foot-4 sharpshooter has drawn rave reviews from the new coaching staff and figures to play heavy minutes this season. If Rogers plays in 32 games, he needs to average 2.84 3-pointers per game to break Sean Ogirri’s program record of 91 made 3-pointers set in 2005-06. Against better competition and with more off-the-dribble shooting, Rogers’ accuracy is likely to take a dip, but Mills will encourage him to fire away from deep, and his volume should allow him to land somewhere in the top-five (at least 75) for single-season 3-pointers.
Xavier Bell will return to his reliable outside-shooting ways
After knocking down 37.5% of his 3-pointers in two seasons at Drexel, Bell saw his long-range accuracy plummet to 22.8% last season in his first year with the Shockers. The end to the season was encouraging for the 6-foot-2 guard, as the Wichita native connected on 39.1% of his triples in conference play. More playing time and more time on the ball should help Bell’s rhythm this year, not to mention Pohto’s kick-out passes, which should lead Bell to finishing somewhere around that 37.5% mark on 3-point shots.
Harlond Beverly will lead the team in steals this season
Before his back injury at Miami, Beverly displayed quick hands and good knack for timing steals on the defensive end. He averaged 1.5 steals per game as a sophomore in the 2020-21 season, a mark I think he should be able to replicate in his first season with the Shockers. Beverly showcased those same quick hands in the exhibition, as he is capable of using his length at 6-foot-5 to poke the ball out from a ball-handler or use his timing to dig at a ball passing by and knock it loose. He’s also an expert at shooting the gap when chasing shooters around screens along the perimeter, anticipating passes to the wing, cutting the corner and picking off the pass to start a fast break.
Quincy Ballard will join the 50-block club
All signs point toward a breakout season for the 6-foot-11 center who has averaged just 5.4 minutes per game in his 46 career appearances before this season. Ballard was in Mills’ first starting lineup and appears to work well playing alongside Pohto in two-big lineups. With his athleticism, size and timing, Ballard is going to block a ton of shots this season — the question is will he play in enough minutes? I think 15 minutes per game is a conservative estimate for Ballard’s playing time this season, but even that should be enough time on the court for him to become just the 10th player in program history to total 50 blocks in a season.
Dalen Ridgnal will double his career scoring average at WSU
After an All-American junior-college career at Cowley College, Ridgnal has had a somewhat muted impact at the Div. I level. In two seasons, split between Georgia and Missouri State, Ridgnal has averaged 3.9 points per game in 59 appearances. Expect that to more than double this season with the Shockers, as Ridgnal will be given more freedom to fire away from deep and to crash the offensive glass in Mills’ system. He is slated to start the season coming off the bench, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the 6-foot-6 forward slides into the starting lineup for certain matchups and becomes a consistent scorer for WSU.
Jacob Germany will knock down at least five 3-pointers this season
That isn’t a lot, so what’s the big deal? Considering Germany was just 1-of-16 on 3-pointers in his four-year career at UTSA, making multiple 3-pointers in the same season would qualify for a big deal to the 6-foot-10 center. Mills has encouraged the graduate transfer to expand his range this offseason and Germany has worked hard to develop touch out to the 3-point line to become a pick-and-pop weapon. Don’t think he will forget where his bread is buttered, which is on low-post touches, but Germany should showcase the offseason addition to his arsenal and knock down at least five triples this season.
Isaac Abidde will clear a 10% offensive rebounding rate
Offensive rebounding rate tracks how often a player grabs an offensive rebound on the possessions he is on the floor. Historically, a 10% offensive rebound rate would put Abidde comfortably in the top-10 in the AAC. Plenty of WSU players over the past two decades have hit the mark, but the majority of them are power forwards and centers. Abidde, who figures to play most of his minutes at small forward, would be a rarity, joining a short list that includes wings P.J. Couisnard (10.6% in 2006) and Cleanthony Early (10.5% in 2013). But at 6-foot-8 and with an explosive vertical, Abidde is capable of wreaking havoc on the offensive glass this season for the Shockers in his minutes.
Joy Ighovodja will flip a game with his defensive motor
Not only do I think the 6-foot-4 true freshman from Nigeria will play this season, but I think he will carve out a role as a reserve — almost out of necessity. If WSU starts Bell, Rogers and Beverly and Bijan Cortes is ineligible this season, then that leaves Ighovodja and fellow true freshman Yanis Bamba as the only guards left on scholarship. Offense is a work-in-progress for Ighovodja, but he has already made his mark in practices leading up to this season on the defensive end. It’s not hard to imagine him coming off the bench midway through a second half and flipping momentum back WSU’s way with his hustle and energy.
Yanis Bamba will redshirt his true-freshman season
It was always a long shot for the 6-foot-5 combo guard from Quebec, Canada to make an immediate impact and a summer foot injury all but sealed his fate. Even with WSU’s limited depth, it wouldn’t surprise me if Mills opts to use a redshirt on the true freshman and preserve a season for him.
This story was originally published November 6, 2023 at 6:00 AM.
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