AAC tournament seeding on the line for Wichita State basketball: a look at tiebreakers
While a chance at a first-round bye in next week’s American Athletic Conference tournament is off the table, the Wichita State men’s basketball team still has plenty to play for in Sunday’s regular-season finale against South Florida.
For starters, Sunday’s 1 p.m. tip-off broadcast on ESPNU will be the final home game at Koch Arena for the team’s four seniors: Craig Porter, James Rojas, Gus Okafor and Isaiah Poor Bear-Chandler. All four players have exhausted their eligibility and will conclude their college careers this month.
WSU (15-14) has lost eight games in the Roundhouse this season, but will attempt to end an up-and-down regular season on a high note with its fifth straight victory on senior day.
After missing the Houston game on Thursday due to an illness, WSU leading scorer Jaykwon Walton is “hopeful” to play in Sunday’s game, according to a source with knowledge of the situation.
But the Shockers also need a victory for seeding purposes in next week’s conference tournament in Fort Worth, as they could land anywhere from the sixth seed to the eighth seed depending on Sunday’s results from WSU (8-9), UCF (7-10) and South Florida (7-10).
Here’s a guide to all possible results and where they would leave the Shockers for AAC tournament seeding next week.
If Wichita State wins…
This is the simplest scenario, as a WSU win guarantees the Shockers the No. 6 seed in the AAC tournament and a first-round matchup against No. 11 seed Tulsa (5-24, 1-17 AAC) at 6 p.m. Thursday, March 9 with the broadcast on ESPNU.
A victory would advance the Shockers to the quarterfinals, where they would play No. 3 seed Tulane (18-10, 12-6 AAC) at 8 p.m. Friday, March 10 with the broadcast on ESPNU.
It would seemingly be a favorable draw for WSU, considering its position, as the Shockers swept the regular-season series against Tulsa and recently beat Tulane 83-76 in New Orleans.
If Wichita State loses and UCF wins…
A road victory by South Florida over WSU paired with a home win by UCF over East Carolina on Sunday would create a three-way tie between the two Florida schools and WSU with an 8-10 conference record.
According to the AAC’s tiebreaker procedure, the three teams would be viewed as their own “mini conference” to compare head-to-head results against each other.
This would not end well for WSU since it lost both games against UCF and, in this scenario, split the season series against South Florida, leaving the Shockers in last place in the tiebreaker with a 1-3 record.
South Florida would vault to the top of the line for the No. 6 seed in the conference tournament because it swept the season series against UCF and split against WSU for a 3-1 record. UCF’s 2-2 record in the tiebreaker would be up next for the No. 7 seed.
That would leave the Shockers with the No. 8 seed in the AAC tournament and a first-round matchup against likely No. 9 seed East Carolina (15-15, 6-11 AAC) at 11:30 a.m. Thursday, March 9 with the broadcast on ESPNU.
A victory would advance the Shockers to the quarterfinals in a rematch against the No. 1 team in the country, Houston, at noon Friday, March 10 with the broadcast on ESPN2.
If Wichita State loses and UCF loses…
In this scenario, a senior day loss to South Florida would actually not drop the Shockers in the seeding race.
If UCF loses at home to East Carolina, then that would leave WSU and USF tied with an 8-10 conference mark. Because the two teams would have split the season series, the AAC tiebreaker procedure’s next step compares the team’s records against the best teams in the conference in descending order until the tie is broken.
Both WSU and USF lost to Houston and Memphis, the top two teams in the AAC, and although WSU beat the third-place team, Tulane, on Feb. 26, WSU was 1-1 against the Green Wave with USF being 0-1 — an unbalance that keeps the tiebreaker procedure rolling down the standings.
Next up would be Cincinnati and Temple, which are currently tied for fourth place in the standings. Neither WSU or USF has defeated Cincinnati, while the Shockers’ 79-65 win over the Owls in Philadelphia on Feb. 16 would win them the tiebreaker because USF was 0-2 against Temple this season.
WSU would secure the No. 6 seed in the AAC tournament and a first-round matchup against No. 11 seed Tulsa (5-24, 1-17 AAC) at 6 p.m. Thursday, March 9 with the broadcast on ESPNU.
A victory would advance the Shockers to the quarterfinals, where they would play No. 3 seed Tulane (18-10, 12-6 AAC) at 8 p.m. Friday, March 10 with the broadcast on ESPNU.
This story was originally published March 4, 2023 at 5:38 AM.
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