Keys to victory for Wichita State basketball vs. San Francisco in Hall of Fame title game
The Wichita State men’s basketball team will try to win its first in-season tournament championship since 2013 on Tuesday when the Shockers take on San Francisco in the Hall of Fame Classic finals.
Here’s a game preview between Wichita State (3-1) and San Francisco (5-0) with how to watch the game — which will be broadcast on CBS Sports Network — with the tip time at 1 p.m. on Tuesday at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo.
A betting line has not be released yet for the WSU-San Francisco game, but the Shockers are favored by 1 point on the neutral court by KenPom.com.
Here are five keys to a win for Wichita State:
1. Be ready for San Francisco to go bombs away
Todd Golden may be on the Florida sidelines now, but his love for the three-ball has stayed behind with new head coach Chris Gerlufsen, who was promoted after serving last season as Golden’s associate head coach.
It’s early, but San Francisco has attempted more threes than twos this season, and its 52.6% three-point rate is the fifth-highest in the country. That tracks for a program that ranked in the top-50 of launching threes all three seasons under Golden.
Khalil Shabazz, a 6-foot senior guard, is the star player to know. He’s averaging 15.8 points and has made at least two three-pointers in all five games this season, connecting on a career-best 39.4% right now beyond the arc.
When USF isn’t playing its gargantuan 7-foot-1 center, it likes to have five players with the green light to shoot from deep on the floor. Tyrell Roberts (10 triples on 43.5% accuracy) and Julian Rishwain, who is off to a cold start this season but made 43.9% of his threes last season, are the two other major threats beyond the arc with Shabazz.
WSU’s defense has found success this season protecting the paint and forcing opponents to make jumpers, which has worked well considering opponents as throwing up mostly bricks. (Opponents are making less than 23% of threes vs. WSU). The Shockers are relying more on their zone defense lately, something that USF hasn’t seen at all so far this season — an interesting cat-and-mouse game that could develop.
USF isn’t shooting the lights out (32% this season from deep), but there’s always a wide range of outcomes for a team that has hoisted 73 three-pointers in its last two games. WSU fans should be prepared to hold their breath a lot on Tuesday, as USF could shoot more than 30 threes.
Goal: WSU should aim to hold USF to under 35% shooting on three-pointers.
2. Be ready for San Francisco’s dynamic duo in transition
It’s already going to be a challenge to defend Khalil Shabazz and Tyrell Roberts, but San Francisco’s dynamic guard duo is even more difficult to defend in transition.
Shabazz and Roberts average a combined 8.4 points with a 67% effective field goal percentage in transition. It’s common for one to push the pace, the other to sprint to an open spot on the perimeter and the two to connect on an assist and three-pointer before the defense can get set.
San Francisco doesn’t rate as a particularly efficient fast-break offense, but it showed its potency in Monday’s comeback win over Northern Iowa, as the Dons scored a season-high 18 points in transition at a blazing 1.50 points per possession clip. For the season, USF is playing at the 18th-fastest adjusted tempo in the country, per KenPom.com, and scoring 14.0 points per game on average (0.97 PPP) efficiency, per Synergy.
Goal: WSU should aim to hold USF under its season average of 14 points in transition.
3. Be ready for long misses that mean long rebounds
Wichita State has struggled corralling defensive rebounds this season and one reason might be because opponents are missing so many three-pointers, which has created longer-than-normal rebounds.
With WSU’s defense prioritizing defending the paint, opponents are shooting a lot of three-pointers and shooting them poorly — the 22.8% mark against WSU is the ninth-worst in the country. The Shockers have also struggled to match up underneath to box out when shots go up against their zone defense.
As detailed above, USF needs no encouragement shooting threes and WSU is likely going to have to come down with more of those long rebounds if it wants to hand the Dons their first loss of the season.
The Shockers have the 13th-best effective field goal percentage (39.4%) defense in the country but barely crack the top-50 (No. 49) in overall adjusted defense on KenPom’s ratings because they give up so many second and third chances to teams.
As a team, San Francisco doesn’t crash the offensive glass well (No. 267 nationally), but WSU’s bigs will have their hands full trying to keep Zane Meeks, who uses his big frame (6-9, 220) to battle for position well when shots go up, from grabbing offensive rebounds and kicking out to shooters on the perimeter.
Goal: WSU should aim to grab 75% of available defensive rebounds.
4. Be ready to break out of the outside shooting slump
It’s hard to overstate how bad Wichita State has been at shooting threes this season.
After watching his team throw up brick after brick last season, when WSU shot 31% as a team, head coach Isaac Brown made it a priority to find better shooting in the transfer portal.
While that might prove to be true over the course of the season, the Shockers are throwing up even more bricks to start this season. WSU is shooting 23.5% on three-pointers through four games, which ranks No. 347 in the country, and hasn’t shot better than 29% from beyond the arc yet.
Peel back the numbers further on Synergy and WSU’s woes become even more troubling: the Shockers are scoring 0.70 points per possession on 22.6% shooting on catch-and-shoot triples, which ranks No. 358 — or sixth-worst in the country. WSU is shooting just 25% (6 of 24) on looks judged to be unguarded by Synergy.
Players like Kenny Pohto (2 for 14) and Xavier Bell (1 for 12) are getting some of the best looks on the team, but they are struggling to connect from deep so far. Despite the early struggles, the WSU coaching staff has given both players their stamp of approval to keep firing in hopes that those numbers will correct themselves closer to the 40% mark the staff believes both to be capable of on catch-and-shoot threes.
San Francisco is once again limiting three-point attempts better than almost any team in the country, but this season opponents are shooting a healthy 36.5% beyond the arc against the Dons.
The shooting slump has to end at some point this season for WSU and Tuesday’s matchup could present more of the open opportunities the Shockers haven’t been cashing in on yet. It’s unlikely WSU will explode for double-digit threes, but at least matching its season-high of six threes on a better percentage seems within reason.
Goal: WSU should try to make at least six three-pointers on better than 33% accuracy.
5. Be ready to take advantage of the Dons in the post
Any time the Shockers go against an undersized backcourt, Craig Porter is going to be licking his chops. And that’s exactly the matchup waiting for him Tuesday with USF’s starting backcourt of 5-foot-11 Tyrell Roberts and 6-foot Khalil Shabazz.
Porter has been a smooth operator when WSU has been able to isolate him inside the arc against a smaller guard. If guarded by Roberts or Shabazz, don’t be surprised to see Porter make a UCLA cut down to the left short corner to receive an entry pass and go to work against what could be a mismatch.
But Porter isn’t WSU’s only threat in the post-up game. If USF goes to its three-guard lineups (with a 6-foot-2 player at small forward), look for WSU’s 6-foot-7 wing Jaykwon Walton to go straight to the low blocks and muscle his way to the rim.
Another Shocker to watch if USF decides to go small is James Rojas, the 6-6 senior who has tortured defenders so far this season with his array of spin moves to spring himself to the rim for easy baskets.
USF has allowed opponents to score 1.11 points per possession on post-up attempts this season, which ranks No. 314 in the country. Look for Porter, Walton and Rojas to try to exploit that in Tuesday’s championship game.
Goal: WSU should look to exploit USF’s smaller lineups and have Porter and Walton score at least once in the post.
This story was originally published November 22, 2022 at 6:00 AM.
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