Why Wichita State’s nonconference basketball schedule could work well in NET ranking
It didn’t take long after Wichita State released the nonconference schedule for the men’s basketball team before fans started to grumble about the games slated for Koch Arena.
After WSU brought in Baylor, Mississippi and Missouri to the Roundhouse the last three seasons, there is no such power-conference team coming to Koch Arena this winter.
Games against South Alabama and North Texas might be great matchups on paper, but the name recognition of those programs doesn’t generate the same type of excitement for the Shockers’ wider audience. And that’s what some fans pointed out when they saw the Koch Arena slate was rounded out by Jacksonville State, Tarleton State, Norfolk State, Alcorn State and Prairie View A&M.
While some fans may be disappointed, here are three reasons why WSU’s nonconference schedule could actually translate better to the NET rankings to boost the Shockers come March.
Wichita State men’s basketball season ticket packages, which also include nine home AAC games, are available for as low as $760, while single-game tickets go on sale on Oct. 19.
1. No marquee opponent at Koch Arena actually increases WSU’s Q1 opportunities
Quadrant 1 wins are the most valuable kind of win in the NET rankings and it’s much easier to rack those up playing top opponents on the road (top 75 NET teams count) or at a neutral site (top 50 NET teams count) than playing them at home, where only the top 30 NET teams count.
Since joining the American, WSU has played two Q1 non-conference games — no more, no less — every season. The way this non-conference schedule is set up, WSU very well could exceed that number and even double it.
WSU plays Arizona in the opening game in Las Vegas, then travels to Missouri and Oklahoma State — all three games have a strong possibility of landing as Q1 games. And if the Shockers beat Arizona, they’re almost certain to play Michigan, which would be a lock for a possible fourth Q1 game.
The danger is that WSU would play all of those games in a row during a three-week stretch. Remember, solely playing in Q1 games is not enough for WSU to improve its chances come March — the Shockers need to compete and beat NCAA Tournament-quality opponents. Poor showings against top competition could taint their team sheet.
2. North Texas and South Alabama could turn out to be quality games
While North Texas and South Alabama don’t carry the same name recognition as Baylor or Missouri, they might end up counting the same in the NET team sheet for the Shockers.
Both mid-major programs should be strong this upcoming season, but the key for WSU is for them to finish in the top 75 of the NET rankings to count as a Q2 game at home. Having one of those games bump up to Q2 territory would be a nice boost for the Shockers.
After winning the Conference USA tournament and upsetting Purdue in the first round of March Madness, North Texas actually finished the season No. 55 in the NET rankings. While the Mean Green do lose the majority of their production from last season, coach Grant McCasland has the program trending in the right direction.
South Alabama is a mid-major team to watch after coach Richie Riley completely overhauled the roster with an influx of high-major transfers from Auburn, LSU, Texas A&M, TCU and Memphis to go along with VMI standout Greg Parham. It will be an uphill battle for USA to finish top 75 playing in the Sun Belt, but it could happen if the revamped roster dominates the conference.
3. The Koch Arena games offer opportunity for WSU to boost its margin of victory
If there has been one flaw in the NET rankings the last two seasons, then it’s been how much weight margin of victory has in them.
Many fans last season wondered how a team like Colgate, which only played one Q1 game (and lost it) and only a pair of Q2 games in the Patriot League, could possibly rise to as high as No. 9 in the NET rankings. The explanation? Margin of victory. Colgate won its Q3 and Q4 games by an average margin of nearly 21 points, which boosted its profile.
While WSU has tried to target mid-major teams that could win their conference and end up in the NCAA Tournament, like Norfolk State (MEAC) and Prairie View A&M (SWAC), the Shockers will be favored heavily in the majority of their non-conference games at Koch Arena.
If WSU can rack up numerous double-digit wins at home, much like Colgate did last season, then it won’t matter that the Shockers are beating up on Tarleton State, Alcorn State and Jacksonville State as much. So while the slate at Koch Arena lacks in excitement, WSU is actually positioned itself well to exploit the well-known flaw in the NET system — margin of victory.
It’s also important to note playing a strong non-conference schedule does not correlate to a high NET ranking. In fact, only seven of the top 30 teams in the final NET rankings last season played a top-100 non-conference strength of schedule. And those top 30 teams featured programs from outside the traditional powerhouse leagues that didn’t play a strong non-conference slate in No. 5 Houston, No. 9 Colgate, No. 10 Loyola-Chicago and No. 23 Saint Bonaventure.
WSU’s non-conference slate is far from the toughest in the country, but the three reasons listed above plus the expected bounce back of the AAC as a whole in the NET rankings should give the Shockers more than enough opportunities to build a compelling March Madness resume.
Wichita State men’s basketball 2021-22 nonconference schedule
Wednesday, Nov. 3 — Missouri Southern (exhibition)
Tuesday, Nov. 9 — Jacksonville State
Saturday, Nov. 13 — South Alabama
Tuesday, Nov. 16 — Tarleton State
Friday, Nov. 19 — vs. Arizona in Las Vegas (9 p.m. CT, ESPNU)
Sunday, Nov. 21 — vs. Michigan or UNLV (8:30 or 11 p.m. CT, ESPN or ESPN2)
Friday, Nov. 26 — at Missouri
Wednesday, Dec. 1 — at Oklahoma State
Sunday, Dec. 5 — Kansas State (Intrust Bank Arena)
Saturday, Dec. 11 — Norfolk State
Tuesday, Dec. 14 — Alcorn State
Saturday, Dec. 18 — North Texas
Wednesday, Dec. 22 — Prairie View A&M
This story was originally published August 17, 2021 at 6:00 AM.
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