Where will Wichita State go this March Madness? Here’s what the bracketologists say
The bubble life has been very favorable to the Wichita State men’s basketball team since its landmark 68-63 win over then-No. 6 Houston on Feb. 18.
While the Shockers were stuck at home not playing games because of COVID-19 cancellations from opponents, other bubble teams were playing games — and losing them.
At the time, the Houston win was not enough to propel WSU past the projected NCAA Tournament cut line for the majority of bracketologists. Even though WSU has not added a résumé-altering victory since, the Shockers are now generally considered on the right side of the bubble for the NCAA Tournament just three weeks later.
According to BracketMatrix.com, heading into its conference tournament Friday, Wichita State was included in 108 of the 113 bracket projections tracked nationally with an average seed of 11.15, which comes out to be the fourth No. 11 seed in the field.
“I think what we’ve seen is a bigger chunk of teams have fallen apart than teams have emerged,” said Rocco Miller, who runs his own NCAA Tournament forecast at Bracketeer.org. “It could have gone either way for WSU (not playing), but it just so happened that this year there were way more teams that played their way off the bubble than on.”
When compared against other bubble teams on Selection Sunday, WSU (16-4 entering Saturday’s American Athletic Conference semifinal game against Cincinnati) currently holds two significant chips:
- The Shockers won the AAC regular season championship outright. When compared against middling teams from power conferences, that will stand out.
- WSU does not have a bad loss in a Quad 3 or 4 game, a rarity for other bubble teams. Three of WSU’s four losses came in Quad 1 games, while the fourth came in a Quad 2-A game.
“You look at the big picture and there’s a lot more reasons to include the Shockers in the field right now than to exclude the Shockers,” Miller said.
So what does WSU have to do this weekend in Fort Worth, Texas at the AAC Tournament to punch its ticket to the Big Dance? The No. 1 seed Shockers (NET No. 64) got past one hurdle Friday, beating South Florida in the quarterfinals (NET No. 212) and avoiding a bad loss. But their semifinal game could prove key when the NCAA brackets are announced at 5 p.m. Sunday on CBS.
Miller pointed out the effect of SMU’s quarterfinal loss to Cincinnati. A Shockers loss to SMU (NET No. 65) would not damage WSU’s résumé and a win would slightly boost it, while a loss to Cincinnati (NET No. 127) in the semifinals could potentially keep the Shockers out of the field.
“That would be their first bad loss of the year and really put Wichita in a precarious situation,” Miller said. “Their NET could drop into the 70s. St. John’s got selected in 2019 ranked No. 73, but when you’re not in a power-six conference then it becomes a little more difficult to select a team that far outside of the uniform top-48. If you’re a good 20-plus spots out of that and you play in the American, then it could get a little tougher to be selected. So they would definitely need to make sure to take care of Cincinnati to stay risk-free.”
When asked about his team’s March Madness chances on Wednesday, WSU coach Isaac Brown agreed with Miller’s assessment.
“I don’t think we need to win the whole tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament,” Brown said. “I feel like our body of work is really good. We won the conference championship and that says a lot. We don’t have any bad losses, so I feel really good about our chances. I don’t think we need to make it to the championship game, but hopefully we can because we’re going down there to do one thing and that’s to win it all.”
And what if the weekend goes perfectly for WSU and the Shockers take home another championship? Miller says WSU fans would likely be disappointed in the lack of boost the Shockers would receive to their seed line from beating Houston (NET No. 6) for a second time and sweeping both conference titles.
“Unfortunately, their conference championship game is on Sunday and what we’ve come to find out is a lot of the work is already done on Saturday night around 7 p.m.,” Miller said. “What the committee does is wrap up their work and build as many contingency brackets as needed. So while a Houston win would be huge, I don’t think WSU’s seed would change very much.
“Unless there’s a lot of help around Wichita, I don’t see them getting above a 10 seed. It’s looking like they’re probably set for either a No. 10 or No. 11 seed.”
That certainly is the consensus for where bracketologists have the Shockers pegged going into the conference tournament. Here’s where some of the most well-known national bracketologists had WSU before Friday:
- The Athletic’s Brian Bennett had WSU as the sixth team from the cut line and a No. 11 seed up against former Shocker Austin Reaves and No. 6 Oklahoma.
- CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm was the most bullish on the Shockers and had them as a No. 9 seed taking on No. 8 BYU in the first round.
- ESPN’s Joe Lunardi listed WSU as the automatic qualifier out of the American, so he didn’t specify where it stands to his cut line for at-large bids. He had the Shockers as a No. 11 seed playing No. 6 seed USC.
- Sporting News’ Bill Bender doesn’t project matchups, but had WSU as the first team out of the First Four and as a No. 12 seed in the field.
- Yahoo! Sports’ Michael Lazarus also doesn’t project matchups and he also had WSU in the field currently as the AAC auto bid. He noted that the Shockers’ might not need it and had them in as a No. 12 seed.
As for bubble games to watch, Miller said WSU fans should be rooting for Michigan State to beat Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament, Miami to beat Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament and Oregon State to beat UCLA in the Pac-12 Tournament. But only Oregon State won.
Miller pointed out WSU picked up a huge boost with Louisville taking a 14-point loss to Duke in its first game in the ACC Tournament on Wednesday, a loss that he estimates could drop the Cardinals below WSU on the seed list.
As for another tournament to monitor, Miller suggest the Mountain West Conference where WSU fans should be rooting against Colorado State, Boise State and Utah State. Boise lost in the quarterfinals, while Colorado State lost in the semifinals. Utah State plays for the title on Saturday.
This story was originally published March 11, 2021 at 6:00 AM.
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