Is Houston a must-win game for Wichita State’s NCAA chances? Bracketologists weigh in
Joe Lunardi, the face of bracketology on ESPN, did not have the answer Wichita State fans were looking for when discussing the Shockers’ March Madness chances this season.
When asked on Twitter earlier this week where the Shockers men’s basketballl team would rise in his projections if it was able to beat No. 6 Houston at Koch Arena in Thursday’s 6 p.m. game broadcast on ESPN2, Lunardi had a distressing answer for WSU fans — “Probably NEXT FOUR OUT.”
On the surface, the answer seemed preposterous. How could a WSU team that would theoretically have just registered a crown jewel of a win and improved to 13-4 and first place in the American Athletic Conference not be included in the 2021 NCAA Tournament field?
There’s no way of knowing for certain where WSU’s at-large résumé currently stacks up for the selection committee, but it is in the professional opinion of two bracketologists that The Eagle spoke to this week that Lunardi is correct in his assessment of where the Shockers stand.
Even with a win over Houston, WSU would have work left to do to complete its journey back to March Madness. Both bracketologists agreed that journey either begins or ends for the Shockers on Thursday.
“I do believe this is a must-win for Wichita State, given the position we think the Shockers are in and given how many games are left in the season and who those games are against,” said ESPN’s John Gasaway, Lunardi’s colleague. “With the state of the American being what it is this year, I’m not sure Wichita can get the fuel that they need in their profile outside of beating the Cougars.”
“By and large, it probably is a must-win when you look at their schedule and the five total remaining regular-season games that we know of,” said Rocco Miller, who runs the site The Bracketeer. “There’s just not a second chance at a top-30 team. So with just five games to go and no wins in the top-end of the top quadrant, that’s why this game becomes even more essential for Wichita State.”
The good news for WSU is that certain parts of its résumé could stand out against other bubble teams if it is able to procure the missing marquee win. Here’s what the bracketologists agreed stood out about WSU’s current team sheet:
- The Shockers have no bad losses. Three of their four setbacks are to projected NCAA Tournament teams, while the other was a Quadrant 1 game on the road. A 20-point loss at Memphis isn’t ideal, but there are far worse losses for a bubble team.
- WSU is 4-2 on the road, including three wins in the top two quadrants: at Mississippi, at Tulsa and at Central Florida. The Shockers also have a respectable 3-4 record against the top two quadrants.
- The 83-79 win at Ole Miss on Jan. 2 has aged well. Ole Miss has won four in a row and are now in NCAA Tournament consideration. With the Rebels favored in three of their final four games, per KenPom, the more Ole Miss wins, the better it is for WSU.
The bad news for WSU is the lack of quality wins, which is why it is generally viewed outside of the bubble. According to bracketmatrix.com, the Shockers appear in only five of 119 tracked brackets — the sixth team outside of the field on aggregate.
On top of games being sorted into Quadrant 1 (games against teams ranked 1-30 in the NET at home, 1-50 at neutral and 1-75 on the road) and Quadrant 2 (games against teams ranked 31-75 at home, 51-100 at neutral and 76-135 on the road), the selection committee further breaks those sections into two tiers. Simply put, not all Quadrant 1 and 2 games are treated the same. The committee splits both sections into upper-half games (Tier A) and lower-half games (Tier B).
For example, WSU’s win at Ole Miss (No. 56 NET) counts as a Quadrant 1 Tier B win and the wins at Tulsa (No. 116 NET) and at UCF (No. 117 NET) both count as Quadrant 2 Tier B wins. A win over Houston (No. 5 NET) would give WSU a much-needed Tier A victory.
With UConn (No. 54 NET) departing and it being a down year in the American, there were only three chances for WSU this season at a top-100 road win in conference play — Houston, Memphis and SMU.
“That’s important for a team like Wichita State because they do get a good clump of top-150 games, but they don’t get nearly as many at-bats as you would in a power league,” Miller said. “Unfortunately for them, there’s just not that second (Quadrant 1 Tier A opponent) in the league.”
Both bracketologists agree WSU does not have to necessarily win out to be an at-large NCAA team. But in order for WSU to be able to absorb one more loss, which likely can only be the road SMU game, the Shockers must collect the Quadrant 1 Tier A win over Houston on Thursday. Otherwise, WSU could be easily dismissed without a marquee victory.
A sweep of SMU (No. 59 NET) next week would likely put the Shockers back in consideration, but each win would end up as Tier B quality in its respective quadrant. Both bracketologists agreed that’s not going to cut it.
“Wichita State can come really close if they theoretically lose to Houston and then win out,” Gasaway said. “That would be two really good wins against SMU, but I’m just not quite sure that it would be enough.”
There is no standard for where at-large teams must finish in the NET rankings, both bracketologists agree WSU (currently No. 78) needs to be close to the top-50 come Selection Sunday.
Jumping nearly 30 spots sounds like a lot, but WSU has the potential wins remaining to do it. Gasaway estimates a win over Houston on Thursday would see the Shockers vault likely between 15 and 20 spots alone. Two straight wins over SMU would likely push them to where they needed to be.
Some WSU fans are confused to how the Shockers are rated so low in the NET and KenPom (No. 82) when they are winning and contending in the American. Gasaway says it’s important to remember those rankings take into account every possession in every game, not just the final result.
“It’s not only looking at what your record is and who you played, it’s looking at your season as a body of possessions, however many that’s been, let’s say 1,500,” Gasaway said. “Were you significantly better than your opponents over those 1,500 possessions and if so, how strong are those opponents?
“You can have two teams that clock in at about the same level of play in terms of how well they did over that number of possessions, but they can have very different win-loss records. Of course, it comes down to wins and losses in the final analysis, but that’s one additional piece of information the committee will have in front of them.”
Another question is if the selection committee will consider WSU was shorthanded due to COVID-19 protocol early in the season in home losses to Missouri and Oklahoma State.
“The closer they get to the cut line, the more deliberation there will be and the more some of those under-the-hood topics will be raised in the selection room,” Miller said. “A team like Wichita State if it doesn’t finish with a top Quadrant 1 win might be easy for the committee to dismiss early in the process if they don’t get the win against Houston (on Thursday). I think that’s what it’s going to take. Wichita has to do enough to make it be a conversation for the committee.”
Miller also notes that the committee typically makes a final decision on the at-large teams selected in the field the night before Selection Sunday. That means if WSU reaches the conference tournament championship, a loss would likely not hurt its chances.
“Regardless if they win or lose in the final, I think the decision will have already been made if they’re in the tournament,” Miller said.
This story was originally published February 18, 2021 at 6:00 AM.
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