A video breakdown of the three keys to victory for Wichita State basketball vs. USF
Here are the three keys to victory for the Wichita State men’s basketball team when it plays the South Florida Bulls at the Yuengling Center in Tampa. The game at 6 p.m. Tuesday will be streaming exclusively on ESPN+.
WSU is 3-2 overall and 1-0 in the American Athletic Conference, while USF (5-2, 1-0 AAC) is riding a four-game winning streak.
No. 1 Defensive rebounding will be a must
Here is my preview story on WSU’s decline in defensive rebounding so far this season.
To summarize, WSU was a top-40 defensive rebounding team pretty much annually under Gregg Marshall and has slipped to No. 286 in the country this season. It’s early, of course, but it doesn’t look like WSU will be a dominant defensive rebounding team this season.
That’s why WSU’s greatest concern against South Florida should be its defensive rebounding. Not only is that one of WSU’s biggest weaknesses, offensive rebounding is one of USF’s greatest strengths.
The Bulls are pulling down 35.2% of their own misses for the 31st-best offensive rebounding rate in the country. That’s led to an average of 9.3 points per game directly off offensive rebounds, which may not sound like a lot, but limiting those easy second chances are crucial to defenses.
As detailed in the story above, WSU’s drop in defensive rebounding has directly correlated to poor defensive rebounding rates in its big men. Centers typically grab between 18% and 20% of available defensive rebounds while on the floor, which is why WSU has been disappointed with the defensive rebounding so far from its two junior centers in Udeze (9.8%) and Isaiah Poor Bear-Chandler (5.8%).
WSU faces a significant size disadvantage tonight on the front lines. Trey Wade (6-6, 221) will be giving up two inches and 13 pounds to USF power forward Alexis Yetna (6-8, 234), while Udeze (6-8, 235) will be giving up four inches and 15 pounds to USF center Michael Durr (7-0, 250).
Durr will be a load to handle inside for WSU. He is a tremendous offensive rebounder, mostly due to his size at 7 foot. Udeze and Poor Bear-Chandler will need to work hard to battle with Durr for position when shots go up. It’s a tough ask, which is why I suspect redshirt freshman Josaphat Bilau (6-10, 232) may see more playing time this game because he has the size and athletic ability to soar for those rebounds.
Just as concerning is how well WSU will be able to keep Yetna off the glass. He is relentless in his pursuit of offensive rebounds and capitalizes when defenses fail to box him out every single time. That can be exhausting for defenses, which is why the vigilance of Wade (and Clarence Jackson) will be put to the test tonight. If they lose focus even for a second, there’s likely going to be more than one Yetna put-back tonight.
No. 2 Make USF play in the half court
In its two losses this season, Wichita State was crushed in transition by both Missouri (25 points) and Oklahoma State (23 points). To be fair to WSU, both of those games came when the Shockers couldn’t even practice 5-on-5 due to COVID-19 protocols.
Tulsa isn’t a team that likes to run, but the Shockers saw improvement in their effort last Tuesday to get back off misses and match up in transition. WSU held Tulsa to six points in 10 possessions in transition, a marked improvement that will need to carry over to tonight’s game against South Florida.
If WSU can limit the number of transition opportunities for USF, it will significantly increase its chances of winning. That’s because the Bulls overly rely on scoring on fast breaks — they are averaging 18.6 points in transition and scoring 1.15 points per possession (top-70 nationally). But when defenses get set and confine USF to a half-court setting, the Bulls’ efficiency plummets to 0.80 PPP (No. 258 nationally).
WSU has been masterful (ninth-best turnover rate in the country) at avoiding live-ball turnovers this season, which means the emphasis will be sprinting back on defense — on makes and misses alike — every time.
USF’s most dangerous weapon in transition is David Collins, a 6-foot-4 guard who uses his 220-pound frame most effectively against back-pedaling defenses. He is excellent at leaking out for passes ahead in transition or grabbing the rebound and attacking himself. Collins is averaging better than 6 points per game on fast-break opportunities and scoring at an efficient 1.36 PPP clip.
The good news for WSU is that Dexter Dennis is the ideal defender — the athleticism to stay in front of Collins with enough bulk to prevent him from bullying his way to the basket — to limit Collins. That’s proven true in the three meetings between the two teams in the last two seasons, as Collins has shot just 28.6% (8 of 28) from the field against WSU.
Collins is USF’s highest-usage player and the drop-off in efficiency from him in transition (1.36 PPP) to a half-court setting (0.59 PPP) is also astounding. If WSU can take away his looks in transition, the chances are USF’s leading scorer at 13.0 points per game will be ineffective.
Another concern for WSU in transition is USF’s 6-foot-4 freshman point guard Caleb Murphy, a top-75 recruit who looks like he is shot out of a cannon every time he gets going in transition. While he is nowhere close to approaching Collins in efficiency, Murphy can be just as dangerous with how explosive he is in transition and the ability with his length to finish difficult shots.
No. 3 Capitalize on what USF’s defense gives
South Florida enters with the No. 66 defense nationally in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency, but that ranking appears to be propped up by poor outside shooting by its opponents — something that is generally not affected by defenses.
In fact, USF’s defense is giving up the two most valuable offensive commodities — catch and shoot jumpers and shots at the rim — at an alarming rate this season. The Bulls are allowing 20.4 catch-and-shoot attempts per game (the 307th-most in the country), but are surviving because opponents are shooting just 31.5% on those looks. There’s an argument to be made that USF’s length presents problems for opponents, but there’s a better chance that opponents are simply just missing make-able shots this season.
WSU will likely have every chance tonight to break out of their cold shooting slump to begin the season. The Shockers are shooting an ice-cold 25.9% on unguarded catch-and-shoot attempts (down from 37.3% last season) and rank 290th nationally. So far they haven’t been able to make defenses pay for leaving them alone around the perimeter, but that might have to change tonight if they want to leave Tampa with a win.
Sharpshooters like Tyson Etienne and Dexter Dennis aren’t torching the nets on these looks like WSU believes they can, but they are plenty capable and could be in store for big games if they are feeling it tonight. It also presents a slump-busting opportunity for Trey Wade, who is shooting 17.6% (3 of 17) on catch-and-shoot looks so far this season. Wade is getting plenty of good looks — WSU is counting on the percentages evening out and some of those misses turning into makes soon.
If WSU isn’t hitting from deep, it can still be effective on offense by attacking the rim against USF, which might seem counter-intuitive given the Bulls’ length. But USF is allowing opponents to produce more than a third of their attempts (36.2%) at the rim and to shoot 60.1% close range. That’s why USF ranks No. 286 in the country in two-point percentage defense (55.6%).
That could be a challenge for a Shockers squad that has struggled to produce at-the-rim shots (32.7% of attempts, good for the No. 252 rate in the country) and finish them (54.7%, the No. 271 shooting percentage in the country). While WSU has struggled in this regard, so has USF and whoever fairs better will likely have the advantage tonight.
This story was originally published December 22, 2020 at 1:06 PM.
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