The cheat sheet for where Wichita State could end up in AAC basketball tournament
Wichita State no longer controls its own destiny for a top-four finish in the American Athletic Conference following its 68-60 loss at Memphis on Thursday.
Even with a senior day win Sunday at Koch Arena over Tulsa, the Shockers will require some help to lock up that coveted first-round bye at the conference tournament next week in Fort Worth, Texas.
There is much unknown heading into this weekend’s regular-season finales across conference play, as there are nine different scenarios involving four other teams that could affect the Shockers. What is known is that WSU will either be the No. 4 or No. 5 seed in the AAC Tournament.
Chances are trying to untangle the results from this weekend will be confusing, which is why The Eagle has created a cheat sheet of sorts for WSU fans. Here’s what you need to know:
The basics
WSU and Memphis are tied for fourth with a 10-7 conference record, while Connecticut and SMU are both one game back at 9-8. WSU plays host Tulsa on Sunday, Memphis travels to Houston on Sunday, UConn travels to Tulane on Sunday and SMU travels to South Florida on Saturday.
If WSU beats Tulsa
The Shockers would be the No. 4 seed only if Memphis loses at Houston and would be the No. 5 seed automatically if Memphis wins at Houston. Essentially, Memphis will edge out WSU in any head-to-head tiebreaker, despite the two teams splitting the head-to-head series, because the Tigers would own the better win (Cincinnati or Houston) than the Shockers.
WSU beating Tulsa would also cause chaos at the top of the conference standings. If WSU beats Tulsa, Houston beats Memphis and Cincinnati beats Temple, it would create a three-way tie for first place at 13-5. The tiebreaker is head-to-head record against the other two teams, which would give Cincinnati (2-1) the No. 1 seed, Houston (2-2) the No. 2 seed and Tulsa (1-2) the No. 3 seed. Cincinnati or Houston would have the tiebreaker over Tulsa if they finish with the same record.
If both WSU and Memphis win and the Shockers are the No. 5 seed, then they would play No. 12 seed Tulane in Thursday’s opening round with a rematch against the Tigers looming in Friday’s quarterfinals. But if WSU wins and Memphis loses, then the No. 5 seed is up for grabs.
If Memphis loses and either UConn or SMU win to create a tie, then Memphis would lose the tiebreaker to both teams and fall to the No. 6 seed in both scenarios. In the event of a three-way tie if Memphis loses and both UConn and SMU win, then SMU would be the No. 5 seed, UConn would be No. 6 and Memphis would be No. 7.
If WSU loses to Tulsa
There would still be a chance for WSU to grab the No. 4 seed, but it would require two things to happen: Houston must beat Memphis; and either UConn (at Tulane) or SMU (at South Florida) must win.
That would create a three- or four-way tie with WSU and Memphis, which is the only way the Shockers can top Memphis in a tiebreaker. That’s because the multiple-team tiebreaker is the combined head-to-head record against the teams you’re tied with. It just so happens that UConn and SMU are the two best teams for WSU because it defeated both, while Memphis lost to both.
So that double-overtime thriller in Hartford and historic 24-point comeback in Dallas right now are the trump cards WSU could play to win a crucial tiebreaker for the conference tournament. If WSU and Memphis end up tied with UConn and/or SMU, then WSU would come out with the No. 4 seed in every scenario.
In fact, here is the complete breakdown of every scenario possible between the four teams:
If WSU loses, Memphis wins, UConn wins and SMU wins: No. 4 Memphis (11-7), No. 5 WSU (10-8), No. 6 SMU (10-8), No. 7 UConn (10-8). Tiebreaker notes: WSU is 2-0, SMU is 1-1, UConn is 0-2.
If WSU loses, Memphis wins, UConn wins and SMU loses: No. 4 Memphis (11-7), No. 5 WSU (10-8), No. 6 UConn (10-8), No. 7 SMU (9-9). Tiebreaker notes: WSU beat UConn.
If WSU loses, Memphis wins, UConn loses and SMU wins: No. 4 Memphis (11-7), No. 5 WSU (10-8), No. 6 SMU (10-8), No. 7 UConn (9-9). Tiebreaker notes: WSU beat SMU.
If WSU loses, Memphis loses, UConn wins and SMU wins: No. 4 WSU (10-8), No. 5 SMU (10-8), No. 6 Memphis (10-8) and No. 7 UConn (10-8). Tiebreaker notes: WSU is 3-1, SMU is 3-1, Memphis is 2-4 and UConn is 1-3. WSU beat SMU head-to-head.
If WSU loses, Memphis loses, UConn wins and SMU loses: No. 4 WSU (10-8), No. 5 Memphis (10-8), No. 6 UConn (10-8) and No. 7 SMU (9-9). Tiebreaker notes: WSU is 2-1, Memphis is 2-2 and UConn is 1-2.
If WSU loses, Memphis loses, UConn loses and SMU wins: No. 4 WSU (10-8), No. 5 SMU (10-8), No. 6 Memphis (10-8) and No. 7 UConn (9-9). Tiebreaker notes: WSU is 2-1, SMU is 2-1 and Memphis is 1-3. WSU beat SMU head-to-head.
If WSU loses, Memphis loses, UConn loses and SMU loses: No. 4 Memphis (10-8), No. 5 WSU (10-8), No. 6 SMU (9-9) and No. 7 UConn (9-9). Tiebreaker notes: Memphis beat WSU head-to-head. SMU beat UConn head-to-head.
If the favorites all win
Here is a final look at the matchups this weekend with the team in bold favored by KenPom. The only winner with less than a 72% win probability is South Florida, which is given a 53% win probability at home against SMU on Saturday night.
SMU (9-8) at South Florida (6-11), 6 p.m. Saturday
Cincinnati (12-5) at Temple (6-11), 7 p.m. Saturday
Memphis (10-7) at Houston (12-5), 11 a.m. Sunday
East Carolina (5-12) at UCF (6-11), 1 p.m. Sunday
Tulsa (13-4) at Wichita State (10-7), 3 p.m. Sunday
UConn (9-8) at Tulane (4-13), 3 p.m. Sunday
If the six favorites above win, then here would be the seeding at the conference tournament:
First-round byes: No. 1 Cincinnati (13-5), No. 2 Houston (13-5), No. 3 Tulsa (13-5), No. 4 Wichita State (11-7).
First-round games: No. 5 UConn (10-8) vs. No. 12 Tulane (4-14), No. 6 Memphis (10-8) vs. No. 11 East Carolina (5-13), No. 7 SMU (9-9) vs. No. 10 Temple (6-12), No. 8 South Florida (7-11) vs. No. 9 Central Florida (7-11).
This story was originally published March 6, 2020 at 6:00 AM.
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