Life on the bubble: Where do Wichita State’s NCAA chances sit after Sunday’s loss?
Wichita State may have missed its final chance at a marquee victory in its 67-64 loss at Cincinnati on Sunday, but the Shockers’ chances of earning an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament are still considered strong.
The Shockers are 20-7 and tied for fourth place in the American Athletic Conference at 8-6. WSU is ranked No. 43 in the NET, bolstered by an 8-7 record against the top two quadrants and no bad losses.
Right now that is enough for WSU to almost be an unanimous selection in the eyes of bracketologists across the country. According to bracketmatrix.com, all but one of the 51 NCAA Tournament projections that updated Monday morning included WSU in their field with the average coming out as a No. 10 seed. Only three of those websites had WSU included in a First Four assignment to Dayton, most notably Jerry Palm of CBSSports.com.
Many bracketologists seem to view the Shockers similarly to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, who has WSU among his “last four byes” and projected as a No. 11 seed. That means the Shockers are just outside of his final four teams included in the field.
Bracketologists seem to agree that a solid postseason resume like the one WSU has compiled, with a winning record against Quadrant 1 and 2 opponents and no Quadrant 3 or 4 losses, holds up better than teams with better wins than the Shockers but more bad losses.
While WSU appears to be living life on the right side of the bubble, it is still a life on the bubble and nothing can ever be certain. That’s why the loss at Cincinnati was such a missed opportunity for WSU, which might be out of chances to prove it can beat NCAA Tournament-quality teams. Right now WSU’s lone win over a projected tournament team is over Oklahoma back in December with no more opportunities remaining in home games against Temple (Thursday) and Tulsa (March 8) and road trips to SMU (Sunday) and Memphis (Thursday).
But the bubble is so weak this season that ESPN’s John Gasaway sees a path for the Shockers to make the NCAA Tournament by doing what could be considered the bare minimum.
“Two victories in the last four games (say, home wins against Temple and Tulsa) might prove sufficient, even if the Shockers were to drop both games on the road (to SMU and Memphis), Gasaway wrote on Monday morning.
“The most likely outcome for the Shockers would appear to be a seed in the Nos. 9-to-11 range in the NCAA tournament. That looks more probable than this team missing the bracket entirely, and it also recommends itself as more likely than the Shockers rising to a No. 8 seed (or higher).”
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