Foul or not to foul? Here’s how Gregg Marshall has handled WSU’s late-game situations
To foul or not to foul? That has been the question facing college basketball coaches when their team leads by three points while playing defense in the final seconds.
Do you foul and give the other team two free throws to avoid a game-tying three-pointer? Or do you play out the possession and try to limit the quality of a three in pursuit of a defensive stand?
Wichita State coach Gregg Marshall faced this dilemma not once, but twice in the closing moments of regulation and the second overtime of the No. 23-ranked Shockers’ 89-86 victory over Connecticut on Sunday at the XL Center. And both times, Marshall opted not to foul.
The first ended in disaster, as WSU blew its switch-everything defensive coverage and gave up a wide-open corner three to Sidney Wilson — who by the way hit his only two three-pointers of the season against WSU — for the game-tying shot with 1.6 seconds left in regulation. But WSU survived the second, as Christian Vital’s deep three rimmed out.
What do the numbers say?
Generally, the math tends to favor fouling when your team is up three in the closing seconds.
A study of NBA games by 82games.com concluded that the defensive team is roughly four times more likely to blow the lead and have to play overtime if they choose to play defense rather than foul in the closing seconds. A 2015 study submitted to the MIT Sloan Conference also estimates that the leading team can increase its chances of winning by 10% by fouling up three in the closing seconds.
But an analysis of college basketball games from 2009-13 by Ken Pomeroy pushes back on those studies. In his study, Pomeroy found the results were close but actually the teams that decided to defend (93.5%) won at a slightly higher percentage than the teams that decided to foul (92.0%).
‘I didn’t want to risk fouling’
So what did Marshall tell his players during the timeout when WSU was up 69-66 with UConn taking the ball out from under its own basket with 10.6 seconds remaining in regulation?
“We had three guys in the game with four fouls,” Marshall explained. “I told two guys, ‘You can foul right before half court.’ There was 11 seconds to go, so we’re thinking maybe there will be seven or six seconds. But those two guys weren’t on the ball. At that time, we were in such foul trouble I didn’t want to risk fouling. I had three guys in the game with four fouls, so it makes it a little tougher.”
Grant Sherfield, Trey Wade and Erik Stevenson were all one foul away from being disqualified, while Dexter Dennis (two) and Jamarius Burton (three) each had a foul to give. But neither had the chance because they weren’t guarding UConn point guard Alterique Gilbert, who was defended by Sherfield.
Marshall also had other factors specific to this game to consider when choosing whether to put the Huskies on the line. Like the fact that UConn had 14 offensive rebounds at that point and that Wichita State had committed 19 turnovers — many against the full-court pressure that was sure to come following a made free throw.
What if WSU fouled and gave up the offensive rebound to UConn, who could then theoretically win the game? Or what if UConn made both, then forced WSU into yet another turnover off the in-bounds pass and won the game that way?
So Marshall decided to play out the defensive possession and bank on his players forcing at least a contested three with a switch-every-screen approach. But that execution failed, as Dennis allowed Wilson to flare to the corner for the open shot.
When the same situation arose at the end of the second overtime after Burton missed two straight free throws with 11.3 seconds remaining, Marshall again decided to play out the defensive possession.
This time, there were no slips and Burton did extremely well to close out on the deep attempt by Vital. The shot missed, but there was still that second of panic on WSU’s end that another game-tying shot might fall. This time it didn’t and WSU survived.
What has Marshall done in the past?
Wichita State has won all four of the foul-or-defend dilemmas in recent memory, but it’s not because of the execution in those situations.
In fact, nearly every one of those situations has ended in disaster for the Shockers. They have allowed the game-tying three-pointer twice, only to come back to win in overtime or with their own game-winner, and they have also fouled a three-point shooter for potential game-tying free throws.
It goes to show that no matter which decision a coach makes, whether to foul or to defend, neither are fail-proof. Here’s a look back at all four of those situations, which have ended with too much drama for the Shockers:
1. at Tulsa on Jan. 13, 2018
Situation: Landry Shamet had the chance to ice the game, but missed the second free throw with 8.4 seconds left and Tulsa, trailing 72-69, rebounded.
Strategy: Zach Brown fouled at mid-court and put Tulsa on the free throw line with 4.9 seconds left.
Outcome: Tulsa’s Sterling Taplin missed both free throws, but Tulsa grabbed the offensive rebound and Taplin was able to fire off a potential game-tying three that missed. WSU played the odds, but still almost gave up the game-tying shot.
2. at Central Florida on March 1, 2018
Situation: Markis McDuffie was put on the line for a one-and-one with 16.9 seconds left and WSU leading 66-63. But McDuffie missed the front end and UCF rebounded.
Strategy: WSU did not foul to put UCF on the line for a one-and-one.
Outcome: UCF’s B.J. Taylor took a contested off-the-dribble three over Austin Reaves with nine seconds remaining that missed. The rebound became a loose-ball scramble that WSU couldn’t secure. UCF’s A.J. Davis picked up the ball, took one dribble, then threw up a rainbow that banked in with 0.7 seconds left. WSU still won 75-71 in overtime.
3. Southern Miss on Dec. 15, 2018
Situation: Markis McDuffie made one of two free throws, putting WSU up 63-60 with 13.9 seconds remaining.
Strategy: WSU, which was in the double bonus, did not intentionally foul.
Outcome: Although Marshall did not tell WSU to intentionally foul, the Shockers ended up fouling anyway when Samajae Haynes-Jones went crashing into the legs of USM’s Tyree Griffin in the air on his step-back three-point attempt with 1.9 seconds remaining. Griffin was injured on the play and could not shoot free throws, leaving Marshall the option to pick the foul shooter. He picked Leonard Harper-Baker, who missed all three and WSU won 63-60.
4. Connecticut on Feb. 28, 2019
Situation: Samajae Haynes-Jones missed a three-pointer and UConn, trailing 63-60, rebounded the ball with 15 seconds remaining.
Strategy: WSU, which was in the double bonus, did not foul.
Outcome: Without using a timeout, UConn pushed the ball and used a high ball screen to free Alterique Gilbert for an open — albeit five feet beyond the perimeter — three-pointer that swished with 6.4 seconds remaining. WSU won the game 65-63 on a fall-away game-winner by Haynes-Jones.
This story was originally published January 13, 2020 at 6:00 AM.
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