Five ways Wichita State basketball can beat Memphis in top-25 showdown at Koch Arena
For just the sixth time in the 65-year history of the Roundhouse, a matchup pitting two top-25 teams is coming on Thursday with No. 21 Memphis visiting No. 23 Wichita State.
A blackout — from the crowd to WSU’s uniforms — is planned for the first time in seven years. We’ve already heard what both teams have to say about the matchup, so it’s time to break down what might actually play out on the basketball court at 6 p.m. Thursday in front of a national television audience on ESPN2.
After watching game film on both teams, here are five keys the Eagle has identified for Wichita State to emerge victorious in the top-25 clash on Thursday.
1. Control the tempo and make Memphis play at WSU’s speed
Memphis plays at the ninth-fastest pace in the country this season, according to Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted tempo metric. The Tigers’ offensive possessions last less than 15 seconds on average, which is the seventh-shortest possession length nationally.
It’s no secret that Memphis wants to play fast, wants to speed up opponents and wants as many possessions in a game as possible. In the mind of coach Penny Hardaway, over 40 minutes, that gives Memphis and its roster stocked full of elite athletes the advantage. Under Hardaway, Memphis runs a ton of quick-hitters with the goal being to take the first semi-open shot available.
Slowing down the game does not always equate to success against Memphis, but there’s no doubt opponents have increased their chances of beating the Tigers when the tempo decreases. WSU tried to beat Memphis at its own game last season and lost twice with the Tigers prevailing 85-74 and 88-85.
This year the Shockers have a more concrete identity and have been forcing their will on opponents much more frequently. The biggest challenge on Thursday will be in containing Memphis and not letting it turn the game into an up-and-down affair.
A locked-in performance on the defensive end is going to be a must for the Shockers. The incentive for great defense early in the shot clock is there: Memphis’ offensive efficiency plummets the longer the possession lasts. Memphis scores 0.99 points per possession in the first 15 seconds of the shot clock, per Stathouse Analytics, but that drops off to 0.73 points per possession if it goes between 16-25 seconds.
Too often Memphis’ offense breaks down to 1-on-1 play with someone trying to make something out of nothing. The Tigers are averaging 16.8 turnovers per game, the 16th-most in the country, which is why they rank 105th in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive efficiency.
If WSU can consistently take away Memphis’ quick hitters, then that is going to leave the Tigers playing a ton in isolation. That should favor the Shockers if they can keep Memphis off the offensive glass, which is another key to this game. If WSU can force around 15 turnovers, keep the possessions closer to 70 than 80, then the Shockers should be in business to win the game down the stretch.
2. Limit turnovers to 10 or fewer against Memphis
Remember VCU’s “Havoc” defense? Memphis plays something similar, except with taller and more explosive athletes.
Memphis ranks first in the country at 0.40 points per possession allowed in its press defense among teams that regularly press, per Synergy. The Tigers rank 13th nationally in forcing 17.7 turnovers per game and 12th at 9.3 steals per game.
Just like VCU, Memphis loves trapping in its full-court press with its other three defenders pressed up to try to take away the immediate exit passes. A point guard trying to single-handedly dribble past this kind of pressure is essentially a death wise with turnovers often winding up looking like these:
Once you break the full-court press, the chaos doesn’t end there. The Tigers are not always fundamentally sound and they take some gambles that might drive other coaches crazy, but it’s a risk worth taking when you have so many long, athletic and explosive athletes at your disposal.
Call for a ball screen? Be careful, Memphis has the tendency to blow them up like this:
And that space you think you have? Wrong. Open passes turn into atomic bombs headed the other way for highlight-reel dunks. Open driving lanes are shut down with the ball being scraped out for a steal and a fast break the other way. Memphis is so good at closing down space.
That means WSU’s ball handlers will have to be sure-handed and be crisp with their passes. Memphis feasts on indecision, so to survive this type of defense, WSU will need to keep good spacing and not let the ball stick in one place for too long.
The goal should be 10 or fewer turnovers, which should be doable for a WSU team that now ranks top-40 nationally in limiting turnovers.
3. Use Memphis’ over-aggressiveness against the Tigers
As explored above, Memphis’ hyper-aggression can be its biggest strength. But it can also be used against the Tigers.
It’s not easy to score against Memphis against its full-court press, but if WSU can crack it a few times it may be able to force the Tigers out of it. So how can the Shockers accomplish that?
With crisp passes like this possession against VCU that spring WSU for opportunity basketball that Grant Sherfield capitalizes on with the dump-off to Morris Udeze for a slam dunk. Situations like this one should be available plenty.
As long as WSU can find an outlet to the middle of the court, then its opportunities to break the full-court pressure expand. Like this one against VCU’s press: WSU hits the middle of the floor, collapses the defense and finds Erik Stevenson for a wide open corner three.
Speaking of Stevenson, he could be key for WSU in cracking Memphis’ pressure. Sherfield and Jamarius Burton will likely handle the ball for most of the night and both are good passers, but Stevenson’s vision and knack for the extraordinary pass is unmatched on the team.
Memphis thrives on bringing pressure to the ball handler and counting on them not being able to identify the open skip pass. That works on most, but Stevenson is an expert at finding the open player. That’s why I think he’ll have a pass (or two) like this on Thursday because he’s so good at finding the underbelly of the defense and making the right pass to get it there.
If WSU has a good game, its assist totals will be up. Relying on one-on-one basketball to beat Memphis isn’t the best way to go about attacking the Tigers. Look for the Shockers to assist on somewhere around 70% of their field goals if they have a successful game.
4. Don’t let Memphis throw a block party around the rim
Remember when I said Memphis was really good at closing space? That also applies on seemingly open layups or really any shot around the rim. The Tigers are so good at swooping in out of nowhere to swat shots away and rank second nationally at 6.8 blocks per game.
Opponents make just 39% of their two-point shots (national average is 49%) against Memphis, which also ranks second nationally. Per Hoop-Math.com, Memphis ranks second nationally again in field goal percentage allowed on shots at the rim (44.3%).
Memphis has a very strong case as the best rim-protecting team in the country. While WSU actually generates well below the national average of its offense at the rim, this still matters for the Shockers because those are typically the high-percentage looks you count on converting. But it’s so rare to find an easy look against Memphis’ defense.
Why is that? Mostly because of the incredible range, timing and precision of 6-foot-9 freshman Precious Achiuwa, who was comically left off of the coaches’ preseason all-conference team. All the future lottery pick has done in his debut season is average 14.6 points, 10.2 rebounds and 1.6 blocks in less than 28 minutes per game.
Just like the guards close down space horizontally with their ball-swiping tendencies, Achiuwa closes down space vertically for Memphis better than anyone. There are so many instances of players thinking they have easy lay-ins, only for their shots to be erased into oblivion by Achiuwa.
Getting blocked is inevitable when it comes to Memphis; the Tigers are simply too rangy not to get at least a few. But WSU can do itself a huge favor by not letting Achiuwa (and Memphis’ other bigs) start throwing a block party at the rim. If WSU can finish on at least half of its shots near the rim on Thursday, it should consider that a victory.
5. Hurt Memphis on kick-out passes out of the post
This falls in line with using Memphis’ over-aggressiveness against itself, but more specific. If there is one specific thing Memphis’ defense is not good at, it’s defending the post.
Searching through Synergy’s logs for a weakness is an easy task because Memphis is rated “Excellent” in just about every category, except for a few. The lowest rank is the team’s post defense, which has to settle for a “Very Good” tag in the 72nd percentile. But when you include post-up offense with passes, then Memphis’ defense drops all the way down to “Average” in the 48th percentile.
The major drop is due to Memphis’ eagerness to send another defender to the post for a double-team. Most of the time it’s not planned, the perimeter defender simply cannot help himself ball-watching and goes for the double in search of a quick turnover. Those indeed happen occasionally, but these are the situations where Memphis’ defense seems to be most vulnerable.
In last weekend’s win at Memphis, Georgia showed exactly how you combat this when Memphis makes this gamble. The post took a dribble away from the oncoming second defender, his teammate who had been left cut toward him to receive the pass and then Memphis’ defense crumbled and gave up an open three.
Earlier this season, Tennessee routinely made Memphis pay for doubling the post. WSU probably doesn’t have the same level of post passing that Tennessee has, but the Shockers can do well to follow these three examples for easy shots.
This is something that WSU’s posts aren’t necessarily good at. The Shockers are just an average post-up team and turn the ball over 20% of the time trying to set them up, which is less than ideal. Jaime Echenique, Morris Udeze, Asbjorn Midtgaard and Isaiah Poor Bear-Chandler have been prone to turnovers this season, but if that four-man rotation at center can combine for four assists against Memphis then that’s a sign the kick-out game is working for the Shockers.
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