This analytics site has Wichita State ranked 11th. Why the numbers love the Shockers
Analytics have exploded in popularity in basketball, which means most college fans have probably at least heard of Ken Pomeroy and his math-based website KenPom.com.
But that’s far from the only place where college basketball fans can dive into analytics, as sites run by Erik Haslam, Jeff Sagarin and Bart Torvik all have their own spin.
While Wichita State and its 8-1 record, fresh off an impressive 19-point win at Oklahoma State, are starting to put together a case to be ranked, Haslam’s website, Haslametrics.com, thinks the Shockers have already arrived. As of Wednesday morning, Haslam’s formula, one of the few that is purely performance-based, has Wichita State ranked No. 11, by far the highest ranking of any site.
Haslam’s system spits out an “all-play percentage,” which estimates a team’s estimated winning percentage against every team based on this season’s results. So WSU’s No. 11 ranking translates to Haslam’s metrics estimating WSU could beat 97.2% of teams.
“We all kind of do the same kind of stuff, but just different methodology,” Haslam told The Eagle. “Most of the analytics sites factor in a lot of stuff before the season, like team prestige, how teams did in past seasons, recruiting, stuff like that. What I aim to do is weed out all of that stuff. How do you know what a team’s offensive efficiency is before they even play a game? Everything I do is based on that current season’s results.”
Haslam doesn’t release his first set of rankings until Thanksgiving, when there is a enough of a sample size. His algorithm then assigns an expected outcome for every game and teams gain or lose points in his system based on how they fared against those expectations.
For example, even though WSU beat Texas Southern, 69-63, WSU was docked 38 efficiency points, its worst performance to date, because it did not win by the expected outcome. But at Oklahoma State, where OSU was expected to win, the Shockers gained a season-best 43 efficiency points for their 80-61 win.
Another detail that makes Haslam’s formula unique is that his ratings stop counting statistics from games once his algorithm determines a game is “analytically final,” meaning he has devised a formula to determine when a game is out of reach.
For example, when WSU took a 72-44 lead over OSU with 9:10 remaining in the second half, the game was deemed “analytically final.”
“That’s when the algorithm stopped caring because it had determined that Oklahoma State was not capable of coming back in the game,” Haslam said. “While Wichita State will benefit from the numbers (of a 28-point win), they’re only going to receive credit for roughly 80% of the game because it went analytically final so early.”
WSU’s ranking is boosted by a defense that Haslam has ranked fifth-best in the country. Haslam’s ratings show WSU’s defense is so effective by limiting opponents to one shot per possession, forcing teams into mid-range shots, producing steals and converting them into points.
“They rank 312nd in percent of mid-range attempts, but that’s actually a good thing to be ranked there,” Haslam said. “That’s just Gregg Marshall being smart. He’s encouraging opponents to shoot those low-percentage shots and they’re defending them very well.”
For reference, here is how Haslam’s metrics has the rest of the American: Memphis (34), Temple (41), Houston (48), Connecticut (72), Central Florida (89), Cincinnati (98), Tulsa (108), SMU (160), Tulane (186), South Florida (202) and East Carolina (282).
Every year Haslam says he writes in a black book anywhere between 50 and 75 teams he plans on tracking throughout the season. Wichita State was not one of those teams this season, but the Shockers’ strong start has made him add them.
From his experience, that’s usually an indicator of good things to come for a team if they rate this well early on in a season.
“They’re 8-1 and I did not expect them to be this solid out of the gate,” Haslam said. “This is the reason why I love analytics. This early in the season it reveals those diamonds in the rough that the mainstream will probably be talking about here in the next two or three weeks. But these analytics are already reading in on that, where I think the mainstream kind of lags. Wichita State is certainly one of those teams.”
This story was originally published December 11, 2019 at 6:04 AM.
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