Here are five ways Wichita State basketball can beat Oklahoma State on the road
Sunday’s road trip to Stillwater, Okla. for a 1 p.m. showdown (broadcast on ESPNU) at Oklahoma State could be the Wichita State men’s basketball team’s lone chance at a Quadrant 1 victory in its non-conference slate.
A win on Sunday for WSU (7-1) over a likely NCAA Tournament team in Oklahoma State (7-1) could push the Shockers above the bubble on Sunday Selection in March.
So how can the Shockers score a valuable road win on Sunday? Here are five things to watch for against the Cowboys:
1. Will OSU star Isaac Likekele play?
Likekele, a 6-foot-4, 215-pound sophomore point guard, had somewhat of a coming out party last week when he led Oklahoma State to two straight wins by a combined 55 points over Syracuse and Mississippi to win the NIT Preseason Tip-Off championship.
An illness held Likekele out of Wednesday’s game against Georgetown and those around OSU think it’s no coincidence that the Cowboys lost their first game of the season. Georgetown guard Mac McClung, who Likekele likely would’ve guarded, went off for 33 points and OSU’s defense gave up a season-high 1.18 points per possession in a 81-74 defeat.
“He’s one of the best point guards in the country,” Hall of Famer and Georgetown coach Patrick Ewing told The Oklahoman about Likekele after the game.
It’s clear that OSU wasn’t anywhere close to the same team that nabbed top-100 wins over Yale, Syracuse and Mississippi without Likekele, which is why his status for Sunday’s game is so important to the outcome of the game. As of Saturday night, Likekele’s status was uncertain, which means he’ll be a game-time decision on Sunday.
So why is he so important to the Cowboys?
For starters, Likekele has leveled up on offense as a sophomore. He’s averaging 13.7 points on 57% shooting on top of drawing more fouls and cashing in on his free throws more — he’s making 74% this year, up from 66%. Add it all up and he’s posting a team-best 120.3 offensive rating this season, not to mention upping his assists to 5.0 per game for an assist rate (32%) in the top-75 of the country.
But where Likekele impacts winning more for OSU is on the defensive end. At 6-4 and 220, Likekele uses his length and motor to smother ball handlers and make completing a pass a difficult task against him. Per Synergy, shooters are making just 29% of their shots (12 of 42) when Likekele is the primary defender. Likekele plays like his sole mission every game is to make life hell for whoever he is guarding.
He might be even better off the ball, where he is able to put to use his top-notch anticipation skills to sniff out the next pass. Likekele is so good at reading eyes and then he has the acceleration to jump passing lanes for steals. When OSU goes zone on occasion, Likekele closes down passing angles better than almost anyone. It’s translated to 2.9 steals per game this season with the 17th-best steal rate in the country.
So if Likekele ends up playing, WSU will have to always be aware of where he is on the court. The guards have to eliminate the lazy passes and the posts need to make sure before they make those swing passes to the wing when Likekele is lurking. OSU is very good at turning defense into offense, so limiting the Cowboys to under their season average of 18 points in transition will be a key on Sunday.
2. Elite shot-blocker anchors a top-15 OSU defense
Why does Ken Pomeroy’s advanced metrics have Oklahoma State as the 15th-best defense in the country this season?
A big reason, perhaps the biggest, is because OSU’s defense is one of the best in the country at limiting shots near the basket and defending shots near the basket. Credit for that goes to Yor Anei, a 6-10, 235-pound sophomore center who is swatting 3.1 shots per game with the second-best block rate (18%) in the country this season.
OSU’s defense ranks 32nd in the country in limiting shots near the basket and 42nd nationally in points per possession (0.94) allowed on shots near the basket, which reflects how much of an influence Anei can be altering shots in the paint and even deterring guards on the perimeter from even attempting drives to the rim.
And who could blame them when this is more than likely your fate if you challenge Anei at the rim?
This isn’t to say Anei cannot be scored on. Yes, he’s extremely good at coming off his man and chasing blocks. But Anei actually hasn’t been an effective on-ball defender on post-up attempts. Opponents are shooting 47% and scoring 0.84 points per possession, which ranks Anei in the 43rd percentile on Synergy.
This is relevant because WSU center Jaime Echenique is coming off his best scoring game of his senior season against another one of the country’s best shot-blockers in Central Arkansas 7-footer Hayden Koval. Echenique (260 pounds) used his weight advantage to establish good position on Koval and then used an array of crafty moves in post-ups to get Koval off-balance and render his shot-blocking useless.
In total, Echenique scored 10 of his 13 points directly on Koval and won the individual match up. If Echenique can do so again on Sunday and once again dig into his back of tricks on Anei, then he would raise WSU’s chances of winning.
3. Cash in on the three-point chances that will be available
On paper, there doesn’t seem to be a weakness is Oklahoma State’s defense. But during my research, I noticed the Cowboys ranked No. 335 (out of 353) in the country in defensive three-point rate — opponents are firing threes on 46% of their shots — yet they also rank seventh in the country in three-point percentage defense — opponents are making just 25.4% from beyond the arc.
Giving up a ton of threes is not inherently bad for a defense. In fact, the best defense in the country (Virginia) gives up the most three-pointers in the country. It usually means teams are doing an excellent job of protecting the rim and are forcing opponents to settle for three-point shots.
OSU is certainly doing that this season, but the Cowboys appear to be playing with fire on the quality of looks they are giving up. Three-point defense has been proven to be more out of the defense’s control, which means there’s a lot of luck involved. For opponents to be 25% ice-cold from deep isn’t likely sustainable for the rest of the season.
Pull back the curtains even further and you discover that OSU is allowing 10 open catch-and-shoot attempts per game, but opponents are hitting just 29.6% of the most efficient kind of shot possible. Of the 33 teams in the country who are allowing at least 10 open catch-and-shoot attempts game, OSU has faced the worst opponent shooting percentage in the country.
Essentially, no team has made the Cowboys pay for giving up shots like these:
That is especially true when OSU goes to its zone defense and has Anei camped out in the lane, which encourages opponents even more to fire away from deep. OSU is giving up catch-and-shoot looks on nearly two-thirds (61%) of shot attempts when its in zone, but opponents are shooting just 23% on those opportunities.
The key to exploiting this is to drive to kick, meaning if guards like Grant Sherfield and Jamarius Burton can dribble penetrate and collapse OSU’s defense then WSU should have open shooters available on the perimeter. Tyson Etienne, who is drilling 43% beyond the arc on 5.5 attempts per game, seems to be a good candidate to catch fire. He might already be the best shooter on WSU because he knows how to get himself open by finding the soft spot against zones and relocating on the perimeter for easy kick-out passes.
The freshman might be in line for a big game if WSU is able to break down OSU’s defense with dribble penetration. Erik Stevenson and Dexter Dennis are both shooting under 30% on threes this season, but there should be open opportunities on Sunday for both to get their stroke going. WSU leads the American with 8.4 treys per game on 34% accuracy. Meeting that average should keep the Shockers in the game, but if they can reach the double-digit mark that could push them to a win.
4. A chance for WSU to redeem itself on the glass
Gregg Marshall made no mistake about how disappointed he was in giving up 17 offensive rebounds in last week’s loss to West Virginia in Mexico. He publicly called out his team, especially his big men, and questioned if they were tough enough to be an elite defensive rebounding team like so many prior Marshall teams have been.
WSU’s first chance to answer came Thursday in a win over Central Arkansas where it boarded out at 89% (25 of 28 possible defensive rebounds). But Central Arkansas is one of the nation’s worst offensive rebounding teams, so there’s not much to be taken away from that performance.
The first real chance for the Shockers to prove to their coach their toughness on the glass comes Sunday against the Cowboys. OSU is a good, not great, rebounding team, so if WSU wants to be considered great, then this is a game where it needs to show it. Georgetown just showed it’s possible to bully OSU on the boards, as the Hoyas grabbed 13 offensive rebounds and boarded out at 77% on the defensive end in their win over the Cowboys.
Anei is an excellent rebounder, but his backups are both freshmen with below-average rebounding rates. Look for WSU sophomore Morris Udeze, who is posting a ridiculous 18% offensive rebound rate in his minutes, to have a big game, especially if he gets matched up against OSU’s backups when Anei goes to the bench.
The goal should be to post something similar to what Georgetown accomplished: double-digit offensive rebounds and boarding out at least 75% on the defensive end.
5. Follow the details on the defensive game plan
When it comes to OSU’s top scorer in 6-6 senior Lindy Waters, who is averaging a career-best 14.0 points on 45% shooting, it’s a numbers game. He’s a 42% career three-point shooter, the shot that WSU should aim to take away from Waters’ arsenal. That will take constant vigilance from the rotation of WSU defenders Marshall is sure to send Waters’ way, as it will be crucial to stay attach to him through screens and moving off ball.
Waters loves firing away from deep, but there is a shot he actually loves taking even more: step-back jumpers from the mid-range. Per Hoop-Math.com, 43% of Waters’ attempts this season have been two-point jumpers and he’s connecting on 41% of them. He loves taking his defender off dribble, using a nudge to create separation, then fading away and lofting rainbows from the mid-range.
But there’s no denying that allowing contested mid-range jumpers is the best availble option for the defense when considering how deadly Waters can be from the outside. These are the type of shots that WSU’s defense can live with Waters making:
Defenses have found success this season putting an athletic defender on Waters and applying pressure. When faced with pressure, Waters has been susceptible this season when trying to set up his pull-up jumper with putting his head down and pushing off for offensive fouls. Speeding him up has also led Waters to making some poor decisions and inaccurate passes.
OSU has another deadly threat from the outside with its other senior guard in Thomas Dziagwa, who is a career 41% three-point shooter. Unlike Waters, who is a threat off the dribble, Dziagwa has taken threes on 59 of his 65 shots this season. He loves sneaking to the corners on OSU fast breaks for open threes and he’s a master at using screens and losing his defender on the perimeter with his off-ball movement. WSU will have to use its most disciplined defender chasing Dziagwa around the arc or else risk the chance he gets on a heater like he did at Charleston when he drilled seven triples.
The X-Factor for OSU might be 6-7 senior power forward Cameron McGriff, who is averaging 10.4 points and shooting 54% on two-pointers and 95% from the free throw line. He’s a streaky shooter, but he’s entering on a hot streak with 35 combined points in his last two games with a career-best four three-pointers in the Georgetown loss. McGriff started the season 1 for 12 beyond the arc in his first four games, but has since connected on 6 of 11 in his last four games. The good news for WSU is that Trey Wade should match up fairly well against McGriff, but it’s still important not to let McGriff, a streaky 32% career three-point shooter, to catch fire from deep.
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