The Xs and Os: Video on what WSU needs to do to beat Lipscomb in NIT semifinals

There is a comparison floating around out there that Wichita State’s next opponent in the National Invitation Tournament resembles the three-point-happy Marshall team that upset the Shockers in the first round of last season’s NCAA Tournament.

While there are undeniable characteristics Lipscomb shares with that Marshall team, it’s also true the Bisons are their own type of force. Yes, they can shoot three-pointers. But no, they aren’t solely dependent on them like Marshall was.

Lipscomb has won a school-record 28 games and has played further in the postseason since its transition to Division I two decades ago. But what kind of team are the Bisons?

First off, Lipscomb wants to play fast. According to KenPom.com, Lipscomb plays at the 14th-fastest tempo in the country and its possessions last less than 16 seconds. Lipscomb averages 84.0 points per game, the seventh-highest average, and do so with the No. 37 most-efficient offense, per KenPom.

Lipscomb shoots 38.2 percent on three-pointers as a team, a top-25 mark nationally, but have a pedestrian three-point rate. Lipscomb averages 24 three-pointers attempted per game, about the same as Wichita State. Lipscomb always has four shooters on the floor with a non-shooting center.

The first line on WSU’s scouting report will be reserved for Garrison Mathews, a 6-foot-5 senior wing for Lipscomb who was chosen player of the year in the Atlantic Sun Conference this season. He is averaging 20.7 points on 45-percent shooting, including 3.2 three-pointers made per game on 41-percent accuracy. Scoring at this rate is nothing new to Mathews; he is one of just three college basketball players to average at least 20 points in three straight seasons.

“High-school contests” as WSU coach Gregg Marshall prefers to call them will not be sufficient against Mathews. Just like WSU senior Markis McDuffie, Mathews is a tough shot-maker. If it’s a late contest, no matter how strong, Mathews will make the defense pay. If it’s a poor contest, not close to the ball or his face, Mathews will make the defense pay. Per Synergy, Mathews ranks in the 93rd percentile of the country in efficiency for guarded catch-and-shoot looks.

One misstep, one second caught unbalanced, one momentary lapse is all he needs to cut to a spot on the perimeter and drain a three-pointer over a defender trying to play catch-up. Even sometimes when the defense plays perfect defense, Mathews is capable of simply beating it with his pure stroke. Below are examples of the type of pressure Mathews places on his defenders.

This job has Dexter Dennis’ name all over it. The WSU freshman has been playing some of his best defense during the Shockers’ run to New York City and he has the size, athleticism and length to match up with Mathews on the perimeter. His job will be to make the quality of shot for Mathews difficult throughout the night. If Mathews makes tough shots, then so be it. But Dennis will want to force Mathews to take as many contested shots as possible.

Mathews rarely shoots starting with the ball. Lipscomb loves running him through screen after screen until it can free him up for a catch-and-shoot (91 percent of his 98 threes made this season were assisted). So while Dennis will be the primary defender, he’s going to need a team effort guarding Mathews on these off-ball screens.

Dennis will be responsible for chasing Mathews over the top of the screen and the screener’s defender will be in charge of making sure Mathews doesn’t stroll down the lane for a basket. Lipscomb can manipulate this over-play, but WSU is likely going to want to take care of Lipscomb’s leading scorer to begin with.

Below is an example of why it’s crucial to go over the top of off-ball screens on elite shooters like Mathews.

There’s no denying the top task is to limit Mathews from the outside, where he can hurt a defense the most often. After all, 73 percent of his shots come beyond the arc. But it would be a mistake to write him off as just a catch-and-shoot bomber.

When teams start overplaying him on the perimeter, Mathews loves to force the issue and drive straight into the defender to try to draw a foul. It’s an effective strategy: he’s finishing on a respectable 59 percent of his shots at the rim and he also has a very high free-throw rate, as he shoots nearly six free throws per game and makes 85 percent from the foul line. Take a look at just how aggressive Mathews can get:

If Dennis gives him problems with his length and athleticism on the outside, expect Mathews to put his head down, drive straight toward the basket and into contact to force the issue. Yes, he could wind up taking a few out-of-control shots, but he could also draw fouls on Dennis and send him to the bench with foul trouble.

Of course, WSU will try to combat this by making Mathews defend on the other end of the court. That’s sometimes the best defense against a great offensive player. Teams that can make the shooter get in a stance, run through screens and be forced to play on-ball defense can sometimes wear the shooter down and tire their legs. That will be a goal for WSU.

For a fourth straight game in the NIT, WSU will face an elite post-up player. But this one, 6-foot-7, 210-pound senior Rob Marberry, might be the most unassuming. He doesn’t look like he should be able to score inside, but then you look at his numbers and see he’s averaging 14.8 points on 63-percent shooting.

He’s not as crafty as Furman’s Matt Rafferty, but Marberry is close. Marberry’s game seems to boil down to one move: his left-handed hook.

For starters, Marberry ranks in the 95th percentile, per Synergy, for post-up offense. When he uses his left hand on the left block, he jumps to the 99th percentile. When he uses his left hand on the right block, he’s still in the 79th percentile. He will juke and feint and bob like he’s going to turn that left shoulder, but good defenders stay grounded and try to take away that left hook. Take a look below at how deadly it can be.

Lipscomb plays Marberry at center and he doesn’t shoot three-pointers, so he’ll have to try to score over a pair of 7-footers in Jaime Echenique and Asbjorn Midtgaard. If that duo can stay grounded, avoid foul trouble and shade Marberry’s left hook, then Lipscomb’s second-leading scorer could be in for a difficult night trying to score over a five-inch height disadvantage.

On the offensive end, WSU should be able to easily distort Lipscomb’s defense if it decides to play man defense. Look at how easily Liberty was able to take advantage of Marberry in the post with a 6-8 player. Imagine Echenique or Midtgaard sealing Marberry when he tries to front them like he does in the clips below.

Even if WSU isn’t able to throw the lob over the top (if Lipscomb’s help defense improves), then it’s going to leave openings around the perimeter because Lipscomb will be so conscious of the matchup inside. There’s also the possibility Lipscomb will just have to go to a zone defense when it’s playing small with Marberry at center, although coach Casey Alexander has gone to a zone on less than two percent of possessions this season.

The alternative option is Ahsan Asadullah, a 6-9, 277-pound freshman, who is raw, but talented off the bench. He’s not going to block a ton of shots, but he has quick hands on defense and has the size to keep Echenique and Midtgaard in check.

Another major concern for Lipscomb should be its defense against a ball-screen offense, which WSU has used heavily during its NIT run and is likely going to run again on Tuesday.

The advanced numbers say Lipscomb is solid in this category. According to Synergy, Lipscomb rates as “Very Good” guarding the pick-and-roll ball handler and also the roller on these plays. By all accounts, the advanced metrics say Lipscomb has a good defense. The Bisons rank No. 61 on KenPom. They excel in defensive rebounding and not sending teams to the foul line and are above-average in forcing turnovers and limiting shooting percentages.

But the eye test tells another story. Watching Lipscomb’s 74-68 loss to Liberty in the Atlantic Sun championship game showed several occasions the Bisons’ defense was exposed time and time again. Take a look at the examples below.

The first clip shows a Lipscomb weak-side defender simply not rotating over for help defense. The next shows an on-ball defender suffering a mental lapse that gives up an open jumper. The next two show how easily Lipscomb allowed dribble penetration and how it crumbled its defense, giving up kick-out three-pointers each time. Another clip shows a non-existent hedge by the big man that gives up a wide-open floater.

These are all things WSU has been able to consistently do against much better defenses than Lipscomb’s. Here’s a refresher on how the Shockers picked apart one of the Big Ten’s better defenses in their last game:

There are, of course, other players who could factor into this matchup. Kenny Cooper is a 6-foot junior point guard who averages 10.2 points and drilled the two go-ahead shots in the final minute to beat North Carolina State. He’s a gritty defender on top of being a knock-down shooter at 38 percent this season.

Eli Pepper is a wiry 6-8 senior who is a high-IQ player. He averages 7.5 points and does most of Lipscomb’s battling on the glass for them and pulls down 7.4 rebounds, despite just a 210-pound frame. He’s a 43-percent three-point shooter, but has only pulled on 51 attempts this season. He reads the game well and puts himself in good situations.

Michael Buckland is the other starting guard for Lipscomb. He averages less than 6 points per game and a little too much turnover-prone, but he does knock down 39 percent of his threes and is almost a lock for one per game. Matt Rose is another wiry 6-7 junior off the bench who can stroke it and is actually second on the team in made three-pointers at a very efficient 40-percent clip.

Lipscomb presents a formidable opponent for WSU, but so has the previous three. The Shockers have found just enough offense to support three straight top-notch defensive efforts. I think WSU will give Lipscomb problems with its ball-screen offense, especially if Dennis and McDuffie are hitting on three-pointers. I think WSU has the defensive pieces to match up well with Lipscomb, as well.

But the Shockers are no longer playing Power 5 teams who are disappointed in not making the NCAA tournament. That advantage won’t exist against a Lipscomb team extremely motivated to continue its best season in school history.

Lipscomb is the betting favorite, but I think Marshall will be able to pull off another well-conceived game plan, slow Lipscomb down, capitalize on WSU’s size advantage and be able to grind out another win. I’ll take the Shockers in a 75-70 victory to punch their ticket to Thursday’s championship game.

This story was originally published April 1, 2019 at 5:02 AM.