How to watch Thursday’s WSU game and why Samajae Haynes-Jones could be the key
Wichita State (7-5) at Memphis (8-5)
When: 8:30 p.m. Thursday
Where: FedEx Forum (18,119) in Memphis, Tenn.
TV: CBS Sports Network (Rich Waltz and Pete Gillen)
Online: Streaming on CBSSports.com (sign-in required)
Radio: KEYN, 103.7-FM or GoShockers.com/Listen
Vegas line: Memphis by 6 1/2
KenPom Says
WSU ranking: No. 120 (No. 148 on offense, No. 98 on defense)
Memphis ranking: No. 103 (No. 69 on offense, No. 133 on defense)
Score prediction: Memphis 80, Wichita State 75
WSU’s winning odds: 33 percent
Scouting the Memphis Tigers
Penny Hardaway has injected excitement back into the Memphis program. Last year when WSU came to Memphis, it played in front of 7,200 fans. That number should be doubled on Thursday night. Memphis is off to an 8-5 start under Hardaway. The Tigers are playing at the ninth-fastest pace in college basketball. The offense is humming along because Memphis has been a very good offensive rebounding team. They run and jump on defense, often gambling for steals over sound defense. That’s led to many steals, but also a below-average defense and a ton of fouls. Although Kyvon Davenport (6-8, 215) comes off the bench, he is averaging 14.5 points and a team-high 8.0 rebounds. Jeremiah Martin is Memphis’ experienced do-everything guard, while Tyler Harris is a freshman sensation who is going to take (and make) a lot of threes. Since a 4-5 start, Memphis has won five of its last six games entering AAC play.
Five keys for Wichita State
1. Offense is the best defense. Memphis doesn’t want to sit down and play assignment-sound defense for 20-plus seconds; it wants to run and jump and try to end the possession as soon as possible, whether that’s a steal or a quick shot. That means if WSU’s offense can limit its turnovers against Memphis’ pressure, then it’s going to keep the Tigers out of transition where they thrive. After struggling with that concept against VCU, WSU’s guards are going to have to deliver much better decision-making games this time around.
2. Keep Memphis off the offensive glass. This challenge becomes that much harder if WSU has to go without Jaime Echenique, who is grabbing defensive rebounds at a very high rate. Memphis is a top-25 offensive rebounding team with Kyvon Davenport, Raynere Thornton and Mike Parks being the top three targets to keep off the glass. Markis McDuffie will likely match up with either Davenport or Thornton when they’re on the court, so it’s a big game for him. If Echenique is out, then Morris Udeze becomes a crucial player for WSU to keep Parks off the glass. Asbjorn Midtgaard with his size could be an option if WSU struggles early.
3. Keep the ball moving. It’s no secret that Memphis wants to play fast and it’s willing to take extreme risks on the defensive end to make sure the tempo stays high. That can be exploited by teams who keep the ball moving and make Memphis play defense for longer than it wants. Easy shots can be had against Memphis’ defense if you can survive that initial wave of pressure. Once the pressure is broken, WSU has to do a better job of playing “opportunity basketball” to borrow a phrase from Gregg Marshall.
4. Stay poised when the Memphis run comes. It’s inevitable that Memphis will have some kind of run in the second half. Tyler Harris might make back-to-back threes, Kyvon Davenport might deliver a rim-running dunk or Antwann Jones might make a no-look dish to send the Memphis crowd into hysterics. When it gets loud and the momentum swings, how will WSU respond? The answer to that is likely going to decide the game.
5. Win the free-throw battle. Memphis loves the force the issue on both ends of the court. On offense, Memphis loves to attack the basket and as a result has the No. 53-best free-throw rate in the country. That’s going to be difficult to stop for WSU, especially considering it might be down a big body in Echenique. But on the flip side, Memphis’ aggressive style on defense leads to a lot of fouls. Opponents are shooting more than 25 free throws per game against Memphis, a bottom-30 rate in the country. This could be a huge swing for the Shockers, who have really struggled to make freebies this season. If WSU can out-shoot Memphis from the foul line, it could gain the advantage.
Taylor’s prediction
It’s hard to say momentum is on Wichita State’s side on this one. The Shockers are coming off a 16-point trouncing at VCU in their first true road test of the season and they are likely without their starting center Jaime Echenique, who has the most influential plus-minus on the team. Memphis’ fans have regularly packed 15,000-plus in the stands at FedEx Forum, so WSU will have to operate in a hostile road environment once again.
With all that said, Memphis is a flawed team and this is certainly a game the Shockers can win. Memphis turns the ball over a lot on offense and gives up too many easy shots, rebounds and fouls on defense. WSU has the pieces to exploit those flaws and win the game. But Memphis plays at a frenetic pace and brings the type of pressure that has given WSU’s inexperienced ball-handlers problems all season. Are they capable of breaking pressure? Of course. But it’s something they haven’t done consistently and they’ll have to prove they can do moving forward.
I like this matchup for WSU senior Samajae Haynes-Jones. I think he could be an X-Factor of sorts for WSU. Memphis’ defense forces the issue and Haynes-Jones has the quickness and handles to break through that pressure and make the defense pay. You saw that at times against VCU. You’ve also seen Haynes-Jones over-dribble at times and turn the ball over against traps. If he can find the happy-medium of using that quickness to blow through oncoming double-teams and passing out of the trap, then WSU should find a lot of success against Memphis’ defense.
This would also be an ideal game for the Shockers to snap out of their outside shooting slump. They clearly aren’t a great shooting team, but the Shockers could be good if they start making their open looks. So far they haven’t done that with consistency. Take away the two seniors and the rest of WSU is shooting 25 percent (34 of 138) on three-pointers. That has to change.
While it is a game I believe WSU can win, I don’t feel confident picking the Shockers to win on the road yet. Especially without Echenique. I think WSU holds on for longer than it did at VCU, but ultimately bows out to the Tigers on the road. Memphis 76, Wichita State 68
This story was originally published January 3, 2019 at 12:08 PM.
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