Taylor Eldridge predicts where the Shockers will finish in team-by-team AAC preview
The Wichita State men’s basketball team opens American Athletic Conference play on Wednesday at Memphis.
The Eagle’s Taylor Eldridge breaks down each team and where he projects them to finish in this year’s conference race.
Note: The first ranking is the team’s national ranking with the parenthesis indicating where they rank among AAC teams.
KenPom: 32 (2). ESPN BPI: 30 (2). Sagarin: 30 (3). T-Rank: 35 (3).
Houston is one of just five undefeated college basketball teams remaining. The offense has taken a step back without Rob Gray, but the defense has remained elite. Houston’s defense doesn’t generate a lot of turnovers and it gives up too many three-point attempts, but the Cougars have a pair of lock-down defenders on the perimeter in Robinson and Davis. Opponents have just a 41.4 effective field goal percentage against Houston, the second-best mark in the country. In Gray’s absence, Davis has elevated his game as Houston’s chief play-maker. He isn’t quite the shooter of Gray, but he’s capable and a much better defender. After serving as the sixth man sharpshooter last season, Brooks has stepped into the starting lineup and is draining 39 percent of threes on crazy volume (nine-plus attempts per game). Robinson is a glue guy that every team needs and Brady gives Houston a presence down low. No question Houston plays the type of defense to win its first conference championship since 1992, but will there be enough offense? Projected finish: 16-2, first.
Record: 11-2. Key wins: Mississippi, 71-57, on neutral; Xavier, 62-47, at home; UCLA, 93-64, at home. Key losses: Ohio State, 64-56, at home; Mississippi State, 70-59, on road. Coach: Mick Cronin, 13th season, 279-142.
KenPom: 27 (1). ESPN BPI: 23 (1). Sagarin: 18 (1). T-Rank: 15 (1).
Cincinnati is the favorite for every ranking website and while the Bearcats aren’t loaded with as much talent as last season, they still defend and rebound at a high enough level to be a contender. Cincinnati is a top-10 offensive rebounding team and own the No. 12 KenPom defense. That’s the same winning formula Cronin has used to make Cincinnati a national contender. The biggest story for this team has been the emergence of Brooks, a 6-11 junior who is enjoying a breakout season after only being a fringe player last season. Brooks is a two-way force for Cincinnati, as he’s become a reliable post-up option, rebounding at a high level both ways and his shot-blocking presence is a big reason why opponents are making less than 49 percent of their shots at the rim, the sixth-best mark in the country. Predictably, Cumberland has ascended to Cincinnati’s go-to player, but less predictably, he’s canning 47 percent of threes. Cincinnati has an ideal point guard in Jenifer, who leads the country in assist-to-turnover ratio and is making 44 percent of threes. Cincinnati is almost unbeatable at home and its defense will make sure it’s in every game, but can the Bearcats find enough offense around Cumberland to win back-to-back conference titles? Projected finish: 15-3, second.
Record: 10-2. Key wins: Alabama, 70-64, at home. Key losses: Florida Atlantic, 80-79, at home; Missouri, 64-62 in OT, on road. Coach: Johnny Dawkins, third season, 53-27.
KenPom: 38 (3). ESPN BPI: 34 (3). Sagarin: 29 (2). T-Rank: 28 (2).
Coaches picked UCF as their preseason favorite, along with most media members, largely because the Knights had much of their rotation back and more importantly, finally healthy. It’s not that UCF has looked bad in the season’s first two months, but it hasn’t looked great either. The way the schedule sets up, Central Florida has a chance to make a strong push in January. Taylor is piecing together another excellent season and is one of the conference’s toughest guards. The difference this season for UCF is a healthy Aubrey Dawkins, the coach’s son who has injected UCF’s offense with a much-needed punch besides Taylor. Not only is Dawkins having a good season, but he’s also taken some of the offensive burden off Taylor and both are having efficient seasons. Fall, the 7-6 giant in the middle, is blocking more shots than ever, although his rebounding numbers a bit down. When UCF has Smith (6-11) and Fall on the floor at the same time, it’s nearly impossible to finish inside. UCF has never won more than 11 games in the AAC, a mark it shouldn’t have any problems passing this season if it stays healthy. But it’s hard to pick a group that’s never been there before over proven winners such as Houston and Cincinnati. Projected finish: 13-5, third.
Record: 9-4. Key wins: Syracuse, 83-76, on neutral. Key losses: Arizona, 76-72, at home; Iowa, 91-72, on neutral; Villanova, 81-58, on neutral; Florida State, 79-71, on neutral. Coach: Dan Hurley, first season, 9-4.
KenPom: 87 (5). ESPN BPI: 86 (6). Sagarin: 81 (6). T-Rank: 74 (5).
There’s a clear drop-off after the top three teams in the conference, so the race for fourth is totally up for grabs. UConn has shown the most potential in the first year playing under Hurley, who has ratcheted up the tempo for the Huskies. UConn is still loaded with talent and it starts with Adams, a former five-star recruit who is having another stellar season scoring. Another boost has been getting a healthy Gilbert, a former top-50 recruit who has been banged up the last two years. Vital gives UConn a three-headed monster at the guard positions, as he’s hitting 41 percent of his threes and still rebounding much bigger than his size. Polley has served his purpose of stretching the floor at the four and Carlton has been a serviceable rim-runner. It’s too early to ask UConn to crack into the top three of the conference, but it’s clear Hurley has the Huskies trending in the right direction already. Projected finish: 12-6, fourth.
Record: 10-2. Key wins: Missouri, 79-77, on road; Davidson, 77-75 in OT, on neutral; Georgia, 81-77, at home. Key losses: VCU, 57-51, on neutral; Villanova, 69-59, on road. Coach: Fran Dunphy, 13th season, 257-154.
KenPom: 74 (4). ESPN BPI: 55 (4). Sagarin: 77 (5). T-Rank: 73 (4).
Temple arguably has the third-best resume of any team in the American right now and the Owls are clearly motivated to send their coach out a winner in Dunphy’s farewell season. Temple has a puncher’s chance in every game because it has two of the most talented scorers in the conference in Alston and Rose, who are combining for 36 points per game. Alston is the true standout and the one who makes the Temple offense go, whether it’s him creating for others (5.4 assists), attacking the basket or pulling up for a jumper (39 percent on eight threes per game). But the problem is that no one besides Alston is shooting well, as Temple is making a tick under 30 percent of its threes, one of the worst marks in the country. Rose is still scoring, but it’s coming at too high of a volume with his outside shot (17 percent on threes) struggling. Pierre-Louis is a solid third piece, but he’s not the kind of scorer that can win Temple a game. The question facing the Owls is do they have enough depth to survive an 18-game grind and can they find enough shooting outside of Alston to win against the top-half of the conference?Projected finish: 11-7, fifth.
Record: 7-5. Key wins: Providence, 83-80, on neutral; Baylor, 71-63, at home. Key losses: Louisiana Tech, 71-58, at home; Davidson, 57-53, on neutral; Alabama, 90-86, on neutral; VCU, 70-54, on road; Oklahoma, 80-48, on road. Coach: Gregg Marshall, 12th season, 293-103.
KenPom: 117 (8). ESPN BPI: 134 (9). Sagarin: 116 (8). T-Rank: 100 (8).
Marshall’s teams aren’t used to entering conference play with five losses, but a 7-5 record is actually not that bad of an accomplishment against what proved to be the AAC’s most difficult non-conference schedule. The Shockers have had their ups (beating Providence and Baylor) and their fair share of lows (losing to La Tech at home, getting punked by OU, being blown out by VCU), but there’s a road map for this team to salvage a .500 season in AAC play. That’s because WSU draws the three bottom teams on the road, meaning if it sweeps those, then a 6-3 record at home, which seems more than doable considering its historic advantage at Koch Arena, gives WSU a 9-9 record. It’s certainly within reach, but there’s no doubt WSU’s shooting must improved. The Shockers are bottom-75 nationally in two-point shooting, three-point shooting and free-throw shooting, a triple whammy. McDuffie has been excellent offensively this season and his 38-percent shooting on threes has been a pleasant uptick, but WSU needs more production from those around him. The injury to Echenique is concerning and could alter WSU’s projection if he misses significant time. The middle of the conference should be jumbled together, packed between 10 and eight wins and WSU should be right in the mix given its history under Marshall. Projected finish: 9-9, tied for sixth.
Record: 10-3. Key wins: Kansas State, 47-46, at home; Oklahoma State, 74-71, at home; Dayton, 72-67, on neutral. Key losses: Southern Illinois, 79-69, on neutral; Utah, 69-64, on road; Nevada, 96-86, on neutral. Coach: Frank Haith, fifth season, 87-55.
KenPom: 125 (9). ESPN BPI: 128 (8). Sagarin: 125 (9). T-Rank: 131 (9).
Tulsa looked like a mediocre team during a 5-3 stretch to open the season. Then the Golden Hurricane beat Oklahoma State and K-State at home in the same week to spark a 5-game winning streak. Haith has slowly been building Tulsa into a consistent team in the top-half of the conference and the team expects to make that leap this season, but it’s difficult to see it when looking at the numbers. Nothing stands out about this Tulsa team. It has the No. 136 KenPom offense and No. 119 KenPom defense. It isn’t doing anything particularly well and that is the reason for a cautious projection. Jeffries is the clear difference-maker for Tulsa, especially now that he’s shooting (and making) more threes this season. The key might be the play of Taplin. He’s distributing at an elite level again, but he hasn’t shot the ball well and his lack of scoring has been a disappointment. If Taplin starts seeing his shot go in, this is a team that should finish in the top-half. But will there be enough help for Tulsa to crack double-digit wins in conference? Projected finish: 9-9, tied for sixth.
Record: 8-5. Key wins: South Dakota State, 88-80, at home; Yale, 109-102 in 2OT, at home. Key losses: Charleston, 78-75, on neutral; Oklahoma State, 84-64, on neutral; LSU, 85-76, on road; Texas Tech, 78-67, on neutral; Tennessee, 102-92, at home. Coach: Penny Hardaway, first season, 8-5.
KenPom: 103 (7). ESPN BPI: 113 (6). Sagarin: 73 (4). T-Rank: 77 (6).
Hardaway assuming control at Memphis has injected life back into the community and turned the FedEx Forum back into a home-court advantage for the Tigers. While this team doesn’t have the pieces yet to compete for a conference title, expect that to change next season with five-star recruits on the way. Until then, it’s fair to question Hardaway’s coaching chops in a conference littered with top-tier coaches. He’ll get his chance to prove himself in this first season since the middle of the pack is so close, there should be quite a few games that come down to the wire. One thing Hardaway has certainly done is instill a change of pace for Memphis, as the Tigers are playing at the ninth-fastest tempo in the country. It’s exciting to watch and it plays to the strengths of Harris and Martin, who dart around the court and launch jumpers. Harris is diminuitive, but has no problem getting his shot off and is making 36 percent on threes shooting more than eight per game. Martin doing a little bit of everything at a very high level and has been Memphis’ best player. The Tigers gamble a lot on defense, which leads to many steals, but also many easy baskets allowed. It’s difficult to imagine this team being consistent enough to win double-digit games in AAC play, but the offensive punch is certainly there for the Tigers to put a scare into any team they play. Projected finish: 9-9, tied for sixth.
Record: 8-4. Key wins: Georgetown, 81-73, on road. Key losses: Bradley, 75-62, on neutral; Southern Miss, 74-64, at home; Lipscomb, 79-73, at home; TCU, 67-59, at home. Coach: Tim Jankovich, third season, 64-25.
KenPom: 88 (6). ESPN BPI: 76 (5). Sagarin: 110 (7). T-Rank: 85 (7).
It’s hard to know what to make of SMU, a team that was incomplete at the start of the season with their NBA prospect in Foster still out recovering from a torn ACL suffered last January. But still, losses to Bradley, Southern Miss and Lipscomb rightly raise questions about this team’s floor. While Foster returned in late November, it’s obvious looking at his numbers that he is not his former self, at least yet. SMU could certainly use him because McMurray is scoring about as well as any player in the conference. He’s always been a volume scorer, but now he’s shooting a career-best in about every aspect (he’s making 42 percent of threes on 8.5 attempts per game). Whitt is a perfect glue player who initiates the offense and is the team’s top defender, while Chargois is a savvy scorer and one of the best stretch big men in the conference. Jankovich runs some of the best sets in the AAC and SMU has the offensive firepower to compete with any team in the conference. But if Foster can’t regain his pre-injury form, SMU is likely going to finish on the bottom-half of the bubble in the middle of the conference. Projected finish: 7-11, ninth.
Record: 10-2. Key wins: None. Key losses: The Citadel, 84-81, at home; Georgetown, 76-73 in OT, on neutral. Coach: Brian Gregory, second season, 20-24.
KenPom: 174 (10). ESPN BPI: 174 (10). Sagarin: 163 (10). T-Rank: 137 (10).
South Florida has been the surprise of the conference in the non-conference with a 10-2 record and its longest winning streak in more than a decade. It’s hard not to take notice of what Gregory is doing in just his second season in Tampa. But USF’s 10-2 record must be looked at in context: the Bulls haven’t beaten a top-140 KenPom team. While it might not have a marquee win, USF is beating the same mid-level teams that it has historically lost to. That’s an accomplishment. Plus USF took Georgetown into overtime, a sign that the Bulls might give the conference’s top nine teams a stiff challenge this season. Yetna has been one of the most pleasant surprises of the season, as the unheralded freshman from France is averaging a double-double through 12 games. Rideau is also quietly piecing together a standout season, as he ranks near the top nationally in assist and steal rate. USF is playing a ton of freshmen and sophomores and it will be difficult to win much on the road with that kind of youth. But there’s no question Gregory has some promise building with the Bulls. Projected finish: 5-11, 10th.
Record: 7-5. Key wins: None. Key losses: Charlotte, 55-49, on road; James Madison, 73-72, at home; High Point, 55-52, at home; UNC Wilmington, 95-86, on road. Coach: Joe Dooley, first season, 7-5.
KenPom: 253 (11). ESPN BPI: 254 (11). Sagarin: 227 (11). T-Rank: 251 (12).
The biggest takeaway from East Carolina’s non-conference stretch has been the play of Gardner, a 6-6 freshman who is a bully in the post. He is averaging 19 points and nine rebounds per game; regardless of competition level, that’s impressive output from an undersized freshman post player. Those numbers might come down once he starts playing AAC teams with length and height advantages, but Gardner’s strong start gives Dooley a building block in his first season. LeDay is an intriguing prospect who is a Virginia Tech transfer and Williams has returned from injury to be ECU’s scoring threat on the perimeter. ECU scheduled 11 teams outside of the KenPom top-200 and it came away with a 7-4 record against those teams. The Pirates are actually playing pretty well defensively, but it’s hard to have much faith those numbers will continue once conference play starts. Projected finish: 2-16, 11th.
Record: 4-8. Key wins: South Dakota State, 84-80, on neutral. Key losses: Southeastern Louisiana, 62-61, at home; Alabama A&M, 67-59, on neutral; Towson, 73-55, on neutral; South Alabama, 81-60, on road. Coach: Mike Dunleavy, third season, 24-50.
Tulane was a scary team to play last season with two professionals and two of the top scorers in the conference on the same team. Now that Melvin Frazier and Cameron Reynolds are gone, it’s been a bleak season for Tulane. The Green Wave lost to Southeastern Louisiana at home to start December, then the wheels came off right before the holiday break with back-to-back losses to sub-260 KenPom teams in Towson (262) and Alabama A&M (346) at a neutral site. The lone bright spot was a win over South Dakota State. The problem was that came all the way back on Nov. 19. Since then, there hasn’t been much to like from Tulane. It’s interesting to see the way they’re using Cornish (6-6, 225) as the team’s primary play-maker. Sehic is a talented center that can stretch the floor and is someone you have to game plan for. Maybe Tulane used a nearly two-week lay-off to regroup and it will start conference play more competitively. But going into conference season, it’s hard to have faith Tulane can escape a bottom-two finish. Projected finish: 1-17, 12th.
This story was originally published December 30, 2018 at 6:51 PM.
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