WSU quick scout: How to watch Saturday’s game and keys to winning for the Shockers
Wichita State (7-4) at VCU (7-4)
When: 3 p.m. CT on Saturday
Where: Siegel Center (7,637), Richmond, Va.
TV: ESPN2 (Rich Hollenberg and Mark Adams)
Online: Streaming on WatchESPN
Radio: KEYN, 103.7-FM or GoShockers.com/Listen
Vegas line: VCU -5
KenPom Says
WSU ranking: No. 111 (No. 132 on offense, No. 88 on defense)
VCU ranking: No. 90 (No. 255 on offense, No. 7 on defense)
Score prediction: VCU 70, WSU 65
WSU’s winning odds: 33 percent
Projected lineups
Scouting the VCU Rams
The transition to Mike Rhoades at head coach was a transition last season, as the Rams missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2010 and finished with an 18-15 record. VCU returned eight letter-winners, including three starters, and was picked to finish seventh in the 14-team Atlantic 10 in the preseason poll. VCU turned some heads with a 7-2 start to the season, punctuated by a 54-53 win at Texas on Dec. 5, although the Rams enter Saturday having lost back-to-back games at Virginia and at home to College of Charleston.
Five keys for Wichita State
1. String together defensive stops. Made baskets and free throws allow the Rams to set up their full-court press, so the more defensive stops WSU can produce, the less pressure it will face. That’s important because WSU has been abysmal against presses this season, as its 0.52 points per possession in 48 possessions rank almost dead last in Division I — and that’s not even against a press that comes close to resembling the Havoc VCU brings. Even when WSU breaks the full-court press, VCU can still apply a ton of defensive pressure in the half court, and it obviously has accomplished that this season, as the Rams’ defense ranks No. 7 nationally in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency. But VCU’s offense isn’t exactly lighting it up; in fact, it ranks in the bottom-100 of the country in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency. VCU is shooting 39 percent from the field, 28 percent on three-pointers and 66 percent on free free throws. VCU isn’t a great offensive rebounding team, either, so the opportunity for WSU’s defense to string together stops is there. That won’t stop all of the pressure coming WSU’s way on Saturday, but it can only improve WSU’s chances of winning if it can limit the number of times it has to break the full-court press.
2. Don’t let the ball stick. One of the worst things a team can do against VCU is stop moving the ball. If a player holds the ball (lets it stick) that gives VCU defenders the time they need to recover and start terrorizing the ball handler and cutting off outlet passes. Even when a player catches a pass wide open, they need to keep their eyes up and start identifying the next pass. Some players can remain poised and pass out of double teams, but most players at WSU haven’t seen this type of pressure, and they are going to need to keep their eyes up and identify the next pass. If that decision isn’t made early, VCU is an expert at flustering players into rushed decisions in the face of pressure. WSU has cleaned up its ball handling in recent weeks, but live-ball turnovers have continued to haunt the Shockers. WSU has turned the ball over 27 percent of the time in its 48 possessions against presses so far this season. That’s a terrifyingly high number going into a game against perhaps the best full-court pressing team in the country. But it should be noted that WSU likely hasn’t dedicated a large portion of its practices preparing for a full-court press yet this season. That changed the last two practices in Wichita, so it’s fair to expect the Shockers to be better prepared for a press this time. Still, it’s one thing to show first-year players the Havoc defense on film and try to replicate it with your practice players; it’s an entirely different experience facing it in person. It’s safe to assume there will be a handful of turnovers and Gregg Marshall will have to burn a timeout to avoid a 10-second count, but with good ball movement and quick passing, the road map is there for success with this team.
3. Make VCU pay on the glass. The biggest downside to VCU’s Havoc pressure is that it often leaves the Rams completely exposed in the paint when shots go up. VCU excels in forcing missed shots with its dedication to running shooters off the three-point line and contesting shots, but it struggles rebounding those misses. Opponents are rebounding 32 percent of their own misses against VCU, one of the worst marks in the country. WSU is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country and have tracked down 33 percent of its misses this season, the No. 52 mark in the country. WSU’s 6-foot-11 junior center Jaime Echenique is on a hot streak lately, and he has a chance to continue with a considerable height advantage (3 to 4 inches) over VCU’s posts. If Echenique can camp out in the paint and work for position underneath, he should be able to score on put-backs. The first 11 games indicate WSU is not a good jump-shooting team. It is my opinion the Shockers are a better outside shooting team than the 32 percent they are currently shooting, but there’s no denying that this team needs as many easy baskets as possible. Two points don’t come much easier than offensive rebound stick-backs, so the ability of Echenique, Morris Udeze and Markis McDuffie to find those could be crucial.
4. Keep VCU big man Marcus Santos-Silva (No. 14) off the glass. Remember when I said VCU wasn’t a great offensive rebounding team? Well, there’s on exception: Santos-Silva. The 6-foot-7, 250-pound big man is feasting on the offensive glass, pulling down an average of 3.5 offensive boards alone this season. Per Synergy, Santos-Silva is generating 27 percent of his offense from offensive rebound put-backs, as he is cashing in on 71 percent of those chances. I’m assuming Echenique will match up with Santos-Silva and because he’s not an outside threat, you’ll likely see Echenique play a one-man zone at the free throw line if he catches out front. But when the shot goes up, Echenique (and Udeze and Isaiah Poor Bear-Chandler) will have to be dilligent in making sure to get a body on Santos-Silva. There’s nothing more demoralizing for a team than to play great team defense for 30 seconds, then to give up an offensive rebound and have to do it all over again. Santos-Silva is great at giving VCU second chances; WSU needs to make it a priority to make sure he doesn’t on Saturday.
5. Work to find comfortable jump shots. VCU’s entire purpose on defense is to make its opponent uncomfortable. It’s unrealistic to enter the game thinking WSU will be able to smoothly handle VCU’s pressure. There will be sloppy plays and bad turnovers, but WSU can cancel those out by hunting for the jump shots where it feels most comfortable. I’m talking the Markis McDuffie catch-and-shoot threes in the corners. I’m talking the Samajae Haynes-Jones dribble pull-ups coming off a screen at the top of the key. I’m talking the Ricky Torres mid-range pull-up jumper. These are shots that WSU has connected on at a relatively consistent clip this season and these are the shots the Shockers will need to try to find against VCU. This would also be a good time for freshman sharpshooter Erik Stevenson to snap out of his shooting slump. He’s shooting 28.6 percent from beyond the arc for the season. and in his last four games Stevenson is 4 of 21. The freshman has also struggled even more in games away from Koch Arena, where he is shooting 17 percent (6 of 35) on threes. He’s too good of a shooter for that to last much longer. Could Saturday be his breakout game?
Taylor’s prediction
WSU enters with momentum, on its first three-game winning streak of the season and having won five of its last six games. But through 11 games, WSU’s first-year players have yet to play in a true road game with a rowdy crowd. That will change Saturday. Not only will VCU have a sellout crowd, it will have one of the nation’s best defenses and perhaps the best full-court press in the country. That’s not exactly the ideal way for WSU’s newcomers to find out what playing on the road is like. But if the first 11 games proved anything, it’s that nothing should surprise you with this team. WSU very well could rise to the occasion and pick up another impressive victory, but that will require the Shockers doing something they have yet to prove they can do. That’s why I don’t feel confident picking WSU in this game. There is just a better chance VCU’s pressure and road environment are too much for these inexperienced Shockers to handle in their first road test. There’s no shame in a loss at VCU, and I think WSU will make this a competitive game before bowing out in the final minutes. Prediction: VCU 66, Wichita State 60
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