How to watch Saturday’s Shockers game and what WSU must do to beat Southern Miss
Southern Miss (7-2) at Wichita State (5-4)
When: 4:35 p.m. Saturday at Intrust Bank Arena in Wichita
TV: CBS Sports Network (643 on Uverse, 260 on Cox, 221 on DirecTV, 158 on Dish)
Streaming: CBSSports.com (subscriber log-in required)
Radio: 103.7 FM and GoShockers.com
Series history: This is the second meeting between the two programs. WSU won 59-51 at Intrust Bank Arena on Dec. 22, 2012. The Shockers went on to play in the Final Four that season, while USM won 27 games.
KenPom Says
WSU ranking: No. 110 overall (No. 128 offense, No. 88 defense)
USM ranking: No. 145 overall (No. 161 offense, No. 132 defense)
Score prediction: Wichita State 72, Southern Miss 66
WSU’s winning odds: 72 percent
Scouting Southern Miss
A 7-2 record sounds good, but it’s difficult to get a read on this Southern Miss team. This is a team that has lost by six points at home to a NAIA school, but also beat SMU (albeit without SMU’s best player) by 10 on the road. But for the most part, USM has looked shaky against inferior competition. It had to hold on just to beat Western Carolina and South Alabama and took a 16-point loss to North Florida on a neutral court. Coming into the season the Golden Eagles were picked seventh out of 14 teams in Conference USA and returns the majority of their production from last season’s 16-18 team. Per KenPom, USM is the 19th oldest team in the country. USM is playing at one of the slowest paces in the country this season, but it thrives when it gets out in transition. USM isn’t a good rebounding team and it struggles to get to the free-throw line, but it helps itself by almost never turning the ball over. On defense, USM is turning opponents over at a very high rate and doing so without fouling. The Golden Eagles are one of the top defenses in the country in blocks and steals, but they are giving up an absurd amount of three-pointers.
Five keys to the game for Wichita State
1. Absolutely dominate the glass. We saw a much better rebounding effort from WSU in its win over Jacksonville State on Wednesday. That team was significantly smaller than the Shockers and they capitalized. That will once again be the case on Saturday. While Tim Rowe (6-11, 220) looks like a big body that USM can match up with Jaime Echenique, Rowe actually has a below-average rebounding rate for his size. And USM doesn’t play anyone else taller than 6-5 or bigger than 215 in its rotation. USM as a team is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country and rank 197st in the country in preventing offensive rebounds on defense. I think it’s almost a given WSU will board out around 80 percent on the defensive end. Where I think the Shockers can really win this matchup is going after their own misses. Echenique has been the team’s best at grabbing WSU misses, but look for freshman Dexter Dennis to potentially make a big impact as well.
2. Starting making wide open threes. Get this: WSU players have actually shot worst this season when wide open. Per Synergy’s logs, WSU has made just 27.5 percent of its open catch-and-shoot jumpers this season. That ranks No. 331 in the country. The Shockers aren’t stocked with elite shooters like they were last season, but they still have better shooters than their 31.2 percent team average from beyond the arc indicates. It hasn’t been an issue of getting open shots from the perimeter; it’s been making them. And there will be plenty of those open shots, as USM ranks second-to-last in the country in three-point attempts allowed. Opponents are taking an absurd 52 percent of their shots from beyond the arc against USM this season and a lot of them are unguarded. So far USM has lucked out by opponents missing them. This game should serve as a chance to get some of WSU’s shooters going. Defenses are starting to lay off Ricky Torres (1 for 20) and Jamarius Burton (0 for 6), which is affording them at least one open look from the perimeter per game. They need to start hitting those. This could be a big game for any of WSU’s top shooters in Markis McDuffie, Samajae Haynes-Jones, Erik Stevenson or Dexter Dennis. WSU hit 12 threes against Providence and 10 against Baylor; I predict another double-digit output on Saturday.
3. Keep USM out of transition by limiting live-ball turnovers. Not only is USM turning teams over a ton (it has a top-40 turnover rate and a top-10 steal rate), but it has been one of the most devastating teams in the country in transition. Per Synergy, USM is generating 20 percent of its offense in transition and scoring at 1.26 points per possession, the fourth-best mark in the country in transition that much. USM’s offense is fairly ordinary when you can keep them in the halfcourt, but the challenge is limiting live-ball turnovers that give the Golden Eagles that opportunity to jumpstart their offense in transition. WSU should try to limit its live-ball turnovers to single-digits.
4. Find a guard who can contain USM star No. 1 Cortez Edwards. Edwards is a 6-2 guard who is a career 1,000-point scorer and USM’s go-to player in his senior season. He’s taking 31 percent of the shots when he’s on the floor, one of the highest rates in the country. But his efficiency goes from average to through the roof when USM is able to get him in transition. If WSU once starts Haynes-Jones, Torres and Stevenson, it will be interesting to see who draws this assignment. I could see Dennis being a good option to defend Edwards in this game. No. 55 Tyree Griffin, a 5-10 guard, and No. 0 Dominic Magee, a 6-4 guard who is a former top-75 recruit, are two others to watch on USM. Griffin is the point guard who is difficult to defend in the pick and roll game, while Edwards and Magee do most of their damage attacking the basket.
5. Be prepared to guard for 20 seconds or longer. USM is playing at the 315th-slowest pace in college basketball, so WSU should be prepared to possibly play at the slowest tempo it has all season. This game could look similar to the Davidson game in Charleston where there were only 67 possessions. USM is going to run a lot of actions and won’t be afraid to make WSU play defense deep into the shot clock. That’s going to be a challenge for WSU, especially its younger players who must remain locked in for longer than normal this game. The bad news is USM almost never turns it over, but the good news is it almost never gets offensive rebounds. If WSU can avoid ball-watching and contest as many shots as possible, WSU should board out at a high percentage and deliver the defensive performance necessary to grind this one out.
Taylor’s prediction
I like the way WSU matches up against Southern Miss. While the Golden Eagles do present potential danger with their defense and their ability to thrive in transition, I think WSU’s size advantage will be too much to overcome. Even if WSU doesn’t shoot well at Intrust Bank Arena, I think WSU will rebound enough of its misses to still deliver enough offense. So far USM has lucked out with opponents missing a lot of open threes this season; I think that lucky streak comes to an end on Saturday and WSU connects on 10 or more threes. I have a feeling freshman Dexter Dennis is in store for a big game. He’s been silent for the last three games on offense (eight combined points on 3 for 19 shooting), but Dennis has been good on defense and rebounding. I think he breaks out of his mini-slump and scores a career-high (right now that’s 19 points) in points to lead the Shockers to a comfortable victory. Wichita State 73, Southern Miss 63
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