How to watch Wednesday’s Shockers game and why WSU’s big men will be crucial
Jacksonville State (5-3) at Wichita State (4-4)
When: 7:05 p.m. Wednesday
TV: YurView Kansas (Cox HD 2022)
Streaming: YurView.com/Kansas or ESPN3
Radio: 103.7 FM and GoShockers.com
Series history: This is the first meeting between the two programs, although the two do share a common thread: in 2000, WSU hired away Mark Turgeon from Jacksonville State.
KenPom Says
WSU ranking: No. 107 overall (No. 118 offense, No. 99 defense)
JSU ranking: No. 152 overall (No. 207 offense, No. 119 defense)
Score prediction: Wichita State 76, Jacksonville State 68
WSU’s winning odds: 75 percent
Coach: Ray Harper, third season, 48-31
Coach: Gregg Marshall, 12th season, 289-101
Scouting Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State returns four from the foundation of last season’s 23-win team and adds a pair of high-major transfers who were four-star recruits. Six of the top seven in the rotation are seniors, making JSU the fourth-most experienced team in the country. The Gamecocks were picked to finish third in the Ohio Valley Conference in their preseason poll, although they turned heads in October when they beat Alabama by 26 in a closed scrimmage. No one is taller than 6-7 in the rotation, but JSU competes on the offensive glass and gets after it on the defensive end. The Gamecocks play almost exclusively man defense and will slap a press on occasionally so far to great success. JSU forces 23.6 percent of opponent’s possessions to end in turnovers, the 23rd best rate in the country, and it also averages 4.8 blocks per game, the 40th best rate in the country. Jason Burnell and Christian Cunningham are both undersized posts at 6-7, but they get the job done. Burnell is killing in the post this season and has a motor that is tough to stop on the glass, while Cunningham is the program’s all-time blocks leader and also a menace to keep off the glass. Throw in a freak athlete like Jamall Gregory and a pair of former top-100 recruits in Detrick Mostella (Tennessee transfer) and Ty Hudson (Clemson transfer) and JSU is certainly equipped to give the Shockers all they can handle on Wednesday.
Key to the game for Wichita State
There were a lot of worst-of’s to come from Wichita State’s 32-point loss to Oklahoma, but perhaps the one that stung most, at least to Gregg Marshall, was WSU posting its worst rebounding margin (minus-19) in the Marshall era.
It was an abysmal performance by all four of WSU’s centers — Jaime Echenique, Morris Udeze, Asbjorn Midtgaard and Isaiah Poor Bear-Chandler — who combined to grab seven rebounds in 39 minutes. OU’s small-ball center, Kristian Doolittle, outrebounded them all (he had eight) in just 21 minutes.
A repeat performance will not be tolerated by Marshall and especially against a Jacksonville State team that doesn’t feature anyone bigger than Jason Burnell’s 6-foot-7, 220-pound frame in its rotation. JSU may be one of the smallest teams in the country, but it competes on the boards and is usually able to play teams to a draw.
“We aren’t blessed with a lot of size, so we’ve got to be smart and cover each other’s backs and know where we’re supposed to be and when we’re supposed to be there,” JSU coach Ray Harper told the Eagle. “We’re going to play hard and we’re going to compete.”
But make no mistake: WSU needs to at the very least control this rebounding battle, if not dominate it. JSU gives up an above-average amount of offensive rebounds, but it also grabs an above-average rate of offensive rebounds. WSU should be able to combat that with its team rebounding scheme on the defensive end, but Echenique and Udeze need to do damage on the offensive glass.
I have a feeling WSU might come out and try to establish an inside presence against smaller posts, much like it did at the start of the Rice game. Echenique and Udeze have shown a nice array of moves inside and WSU has some nice actions it runs to get them a post-up on the low block. They should have a chance to set the tone for the game and if they can exert their will over JSU early in the game, then that begins to open up the offense and present more shooting opportunities to shooters like Markis McDuffie, Erik Stevenson and Samajae Haynes-Jones.
It will be interesting to see if Jacksonville State also switches all screens, one through five, like OU did that caused so much disruption in WSU’s offense. JSU certainly has the personnel to pull off the switch-everything defense, so that will be an interesting facet of the game-within-the-game to see how WSU tries to counter that defense if it happens.
Another reason why WSU’s centers will be key in this matchup is that JSU generates 60 percent of its offense on two-pointers, the 10th-highest rate in the country. JSU is taking 32 shots per game within five feet of the basket and making 59 percent of those shots, a very high percentage.
Containing No. 14 Jason Burnell (6-7, 220) and No. 31 Christian Cunningham (6-7, 215) will be problems for WSU. Which one will McDuffie defend and which one will WSU’s bigger, slower center try to keep up with? Burnell is averaging 14.6 points and 8.1 rebounds, while Cunningham averages 9.3 points and 7.3 rebounds. No. 0 Jamall Gregory (10.1 points) is a SportsCenter highlight waiting to happen with his athleticism and No. 23 Marlon Hunter (10.8 points) is a 6-3 guard who is finishing nearly 70 percent of his shots at the rim.
But Burnell is the player that is a bit of a matchup nightmare for WSU. He can hurt them inside, where he’s making 58 percent of his shots, if it assigns the smaller McDuffie on him; and he can also step out and hurt WSU in the pick-and-pop game (he’s made 6 of 11 threes) if it puts Echenique or Udeze on him. Cunningham isn’t a threat outside the paint, but JSU runs some nice actions to get him moving and he’s tough to stop inside.
JSU only attempts 16 threes per game and is only shooting 30.5 percent on them, two of the worst marks in the country. JSU survives though because it gets after it on the defensive end and forces opponents into turnovers on nearly 24 percent of their possessions, the 23rd-best mark in the country. That allows JSU to get out in transition and create offense from defense, an area that WSU has really struggled with this season.
“We’re going to have to keep our composure,” Harper told the Eagle. “We’re going to have to take care of the ball and keep them off the glass. I know especially after the way they lost on Saturday, they’re going to come out with a vengeance. We just have to try to hang in there and see what happens.”
To make sure JSU doesn’t hang in there, WSU needs a bounceback performance from its centers, especially Echenique and Udeze. The opportunity is there for those two to be the difference in Wednesday’s game, but there’s also a chance their absence from meaningful production leads to another stunning loss like the Louisiana Tech home-opener.
Jacksonville State is a difficult matchup for WSU, but I think the OU beatdown was a wake-up call for some of WSU’s newcomers and the Shockers will respond much like it did against Rice. I see WSU building a double-digit lead, then holding on in the end to pick up its fifth win of the season. My prediction: Wichita State 72, Jacksonville State 64
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