WSU quick scout: How to watch Sunday and five keys to beating Alabama
Wichita State (2-2) vs. Alabama (3-1)
What: Fifth-place game in the Charleston Classic
When: 12:30 p.m. CT on Sunday
TV: ESPNU
Streaming: WatchESPN
Radio: 103.7-FM and GoShockers.com
Live stats: GoShockers.com
Vegas line: Alabama -3
Series history: The series is tied 4-4 all-time, but WSU is 3-2 against Alabama under Gregg Marshall. This is the sixth meeting between the two programs since WSU defeated Alabama in the 2011 NIT championship game.
KenPom Says
WSU ranking: No. 84
Alabama ranking: No. 64
Score prediction: Alabama 71, WSU 69
WSU’s winning odds: 43 percent
Projected lineups
Coach: Avery Johnson, fourth season, 60-47.
Coach: Gregg Marshall, 12th season, 288-100.
Scouting Alabama
Collin Sexton is gone to the NBA, but there is still plenty of talent left at Alabama in the fourth year of the Avery Johnson era. Sexton helped power the Crimson Tide to 20 wins and the NCAA Tournament last season and Alabama returns four starters and about three-fourths of its production for this season. Alabama was receiving votes in the AP top 25 poll, although that was before getting worked by 16 points by Northeastern in Charleston on Thursday. Still, the Crimson Tide are a formidable opponent and one that will be fighting for a NCAA Tournament bid this season.
Five keys for Wichita State
1. Keep its posts out of foul trouble. Alabama’s posts are excellent at drawing fouls inside, so it will be crucial for WSU to keep Markis McDuffie, Jaime Echenique and Morris Udeze (who play the majority of WSU’s minutes at the 4 and 5) out of foul trouble and on the court. This will be a huge challenge for a WSU team averaging 22 fouls and allowing opponents 25 free throws per game. Alabama’s free throw rate is top-100 in the country, but the Crimson Tide are shooting just 65 percent from the foul line. While Alabama might not be able to make many free throws, the real damage for WSU would be the foul trouble it would cause to some of its most important pieces.
2. Giving up second chances. Alabama is not a jump shooting team. John Petty (career 38-percent three-point shooter) is the only real threat from the perimeter. The Crimson Tide don’t take many threes and only make 32.6 percent of them, No. 292 in the country. Per Hoop-Math, Alabama is shooting 36.7 percent on two-point jumpers. Barring an outlier performance, Alabama will not hurt WSU with its shooting. Where the Crimson Tide can hurt WSU is crashing the glass and scoring on second-chance points inside. I would suspect Marshall to play a lot of match-up zone and force Alabama to shoot WSU out of it. But rebounding out of a zone is always a challenge and it will be critical WSU keeps Alabama 6-9 center Donta Hall off the glass (watch for 6-11 Daniel Giddens and Dazon Ingram off the bench too). That will likely be the matchup for Echenique and one of the game’s most important questions: will Echenique’s size win out of Hall’s quickness and pursuit?
3. Hurt Alabama from the outside. The Shockers are shooting 37 percent from three, but they are among the country’s best (it’s early) when they are able to find catch-and-shoot threes. When WSU doesn’t have to put a dribble down, its shooters are scoring at 1.53 points per possession this season. That’s the ninth-best mark in the country. Alabama’s defense puts an emphasis on running shooters off the three-point line, but offenses that keep searching can eventually find good looks around the perimeter. Opponents are shooting 39.3 percent on threes against Alabama’s defense. WSU’s shooting percentages have drastically fallen when it takes off-the-dribble jumpers. If guards like Samajae Haynes-Jones and Jamarius Burton can beat their defender off the dribble and attract help defenders, look for WSU’s shooters like Markis McDuffie, Erik Stevenson and Dexter Dennis to make it rain from the outside.
4. Keep Alabama out of transition. This is going to be key for WSU all season. Right now the Shockers are not very good defending in transition. That’s to be expected with so many newcomers adjusting to the Division I level of defending. WSU’s transition defense ranks No. 284 in the country, per Synergy. The way WSU can stay out of transition is avoid turnovers, particularly live-ball turnovers and to sprint back on missed shots. Marshall has been livid when WSU’s young guards fall for the trap of trying to steal the outlet pass, a gamble that almost never works and almost always puts WSU’s scrambling defense even more at a disadvantage. WSU has improved in recent games, but it still gets popped too many times in transition. Alabama doesn’t like to run a ton, but it’s better safe than sorry for WSU.
5. Let Markis McDuffie catch and shoot. McDuffie has been the story for WSU in Novemeber. After a forgettable performance in the season-opening loss to Louisiana Tech, McDuffie has come back to average 24.7 points per game on 52 percent shooting (including 4.3 threes per game on 62 percent shooting). It’s obvious looking at those numbers to see McDuffie is doing most of his damage on the perimeter. Per Synergy, McDuffie has made 14 of 26 jumpers (54 percent) this season when they have been catch-and-shoot. Shooters are the most dangerous screeners and Marshall has done well to use McDuffie in this role. McDuffie will often hover at the top of the key looking for a screen to set, then slip to spot-up from the three-point line. If WSU ball handlers can take one hard dribble to force McDuffie’s defender to linger, then that will buy McDuffie that extra second he needs when the pass made and he can catch and shoot. It’s been a difficult action to defend all season for WSU’s opponents and that should continue on Sunday.
Taylor’s prediction
A lot of this game will be decided by if WSU can keep McDuffie, Echenique and Udeze out of foul trouble. If that trio can play at least 80 percent of the minutes at the 4 and 5 for WSU, then I like the Shockers in this game. I think WSU will be able to break down Alabama’s defense and kick out for shots on the perimeter. I think McDuffie continues his hot shooting streak and I think Haynes-Jones (if he’s in the right mindset) can have a big assist game here.
After a rough shooting game on Friday, I think freshman Erik Stevenson bounces back and will be the player of the game. Alabama has struggled defending the three-point line and Stevenson has the stroke to go off. I think WSU makes at least nine three-pointers en route to a feel-good win to close out the Charleston Classic. Wichita State 74, Alabama 69