Quick scout: three keys to victory for Wichita State against Davidson
Thursday’s game: Davidson vs. Wichita State, 6 p.m. Central, first round of Charleston Classic, TD Arena, Charleston, S.C.
Streaming: ESPN3 (Jordan Bernham and Cory Alexander)
Radio: 103.7 FM and GoShockers.com (Mike Kennedy and Bob Hull)
Vegas line: Davidson by 3 1/2
KenPom says: WSU wins 76-75
Lineups
What to know about Davidson
Three starters return from a Davidson team that finished last season 21-12, including an Atlantic 10 tournament championship and a NCAA Tournament appearance. The Wildcats did lose their leading scorer, but have more than enough fire power returning in 6-5 sophomore guard Kellan Grady and 6-4 junior guard Jon Axel Gudmundsson. The duo has powered Davidson to a 2-0 start this season and have combined to average 43.5 points, 12.5 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game.
The Wildcats did struggle in their last time out against a Dartmouth team ranked No. 246 in KenPom. Davidson had to rally from a 12-point deficit in the second half to pull out a 79-76 victory to move to 2-0. Davidson is the No. 87 overall team in the KenPom rankings with the No. 44 offense and No. 152 defense.
Davidson is known for its deliberate offense under coach Bob McKillop. They run through their sets, constantly look for backdoor cuts and share the basketball. Davidson rarely turns the ball over and consistently finds good shots, a combination that has always generated an efficient offense. The Wildcats play a lot of four-guard sets and sometimes even put five guards on the floor. Despite this, Davidson has rebounded extremely well so far this season on both ends.
WSU’s keys to victory
1. Run Grady and Gudmundsson off the three-point line
Both of these guys were snipers for Davidson last season, as Grady canned 37 percent of his threes as a freshman on six attempts per game and Gudmundsson drained 41 percent beyond the arc on five attempts per game. They’re both off to great shooting starts from three this season too, as the duo have combined to make 11 of 25 threes.
It’s unlikely WSU can fully shut them down because they are both quality players, but what the Shockers can do is limit the damage they inflict. The best way to do that, in my opinion, is to limit the number of threes they take this game to under 10 combined. Even if it means giving up a wide open three to someone else (the rest of Davidson is 6 for 29 on threes this season), do whatever it takes to run both of these guys off the three-point line.
Grady (6-5) and Gudmundsson (6-4) both have good size, but WSU could match that if Jamarius Burton (6-4) and Dexter Dennis (6-5) draw the assignments. But whenever you take something away, you give something up. If WSU is going to take away threes, then that means it’s likely going to allow more driving lanes to Davidson’s stars, both of whom finish well around the rim. That’s a chance WSU should be willing to take, as rim protectors like Jaime Echenique, Asbjorn Midtgaard (if he clears concussion protocol) and Morris Udeze can make a difference in this way.
2. Limit the number of live-ball turnovers
Turnovers are bad enough, but live-ball turnovers have been particularly devastating to WSU’s defense early in the season. Opponents have taken advantage of WSU’s inexperience in those situations and per Synergy, WSU’s transition defense ranks in the 12th percentile through two games.
Avoiding live-ball turnovers can be a key to every game for the Shockers, but this particular opponent especially. When opponents are able to start fast breaks with WSU’s defense out of system, the more likely they’re going to be able to find wide-open spot-up threes. Davidson can be devastating in those situations and the Wildcats rated as a very strong transition offense team last season.
Davidson won 14 of 16 games last season when it forced at least a 16-percent turnover rate and its record was 7-10 when opponents took care of the ball. WSU has struggled so far with turnovers and is projected to commit around 15 turnovers with a projected pace of 70 possessions. If WSU can cut out a few of those and get that number to 11 turnovers, then the Shockers should be in business to win this game.
3. Win the rebounding battle again
This may seem like a given considering WSU’s rebounding tradition under Gregg Marshall and the fact that Davidson really only plays one post and sometimes a five-guard lineup. But don’t underestimate the Wildcats. They have rebounded the ball extremely well so far this season, as they rank No. 22 in efficiency of grabbing offensive rebounds and they are the top-ranked team in limiting them.
Those numbers are inflated due to competition (Davidson has played Cleveland State and Dartmouth), but they are still to be respected. Even though McKillop likes to play small, Davidson has traditionally been an excellent defensive rebounding team and that should be expected for this game.
WSU will undoubtedly have the size advantage with Echenique, Midtgaard and Udeze. It will be interesting to see how Marshall constructs his lineups when Davidson goes five guards. Does he put Markis McDuffie at the five? Or does he keep his same lineup and make Davidson adjust to WSU’s size? We haven’t seen a WSU center try to defend on the perimeter yet, so that will be something to watch.
Regardless of what happens, WSU will need to rebound more like it did against Providence to win this game. Even a slight edge for the Shockers in the rebounding battle would be crucial.
Taylor’s prediction
I really like this Davidson team. They have a lot of talent, a NBA prospect in Kellan Grady and I love the offensive system they run under Bob McKillop. The Wildcats match up very well with WSU and might even present a mismatch for the Shockers when they decide to play with their five-guard lineup.
In the first week of the season, WSU already showed what close to the bottom and close to the top of this team looks like. But what happens when the Shockers play somewhere in the middle? That’s the answer that we’re more than likely going to find out in Charleston.
WSU isn’t likely going to knock down 55 percent of its threes again, but Davidson does have a weakness of giving up open looks from three. What the Shockers can replicate from their win over Providence is the better effort on the glass and the competitive spirit. This team is likely to go the way of its two seniors, Markis McDuffie and Samajae Haynes-Jones.
I think WSU brings its hard hats to work tonight and grind out the win over Davidson. It won’t be pretty, but I have a feeling the Shockers will win a low-scoring tussle. Outside of the two seniors, look for Erik Stevenson to make an impact on this game with his three-point shooting. Wichita State 67, Davidson 64.