Here’s why WSU has the strongest nonconference schedule in the American

The American Athletic Conference has produced at least one at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament every season in its brief five-year existence.

In total, the AAC has netted 10 at-large berths in five years with a No. 7 seed being the average. Last season’s Wichita State team (No. 4 seed) earned the highest seed of an at-large berth in the conference’s history.

The top of the AAC appears to be down this season, but its depth should still produce an at-large bid (or a few). Which teams have scheduled to grab those bids? Let’s take a look around the American and grade each team’s nonconference schedule.

Note: I used KenPom’s preseason rankings to give me an idea of where teams might fall in the quadrants. In tournaments, I advanced the higher-rated team on KenPom to project potential matchups.

Reminder: Here are the qualifiers in the quadrants: Quadrant 1 (1-30 at home, 1-50 at neutral, 1-75 on road), Quadrant 2 (31-75 at home, 51-100 at neutral, 76-135 on road), Quadrant 3 (76-160 at home, 101-200 at neutral, 136-240 on road), and Quadrant 4 (161-plus at home, 201-plus at neutral, 241-plus on road). They are referred to as Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 in the story.

1. Wichita State

Home: Louisiana Tech, Rice, Baylor, Jacksonville State, Southern Miss, Oral Roberts.

Neutral: Providence, Charleston Classic (Davidson, Purdue* and Alabama*).

Away: Oklahoma, VCU.

WSU has found a winning formula for how to build a case for an at-large, or at least give itself the chance to. The Shockers play two road games and four neutral-court games, which translates to plenty of Q1 and Q2 opportunities (OU, Providence, Baylor, Davidson, VCU). Beating Davidson in Charleston will be crucial because a win likely unlocks a Q1 and Q2 game for WSU, while a loss likely means two Q3 games and a dip in SOS. But if WSU wins that first-round game, then it should have seven Q1 and Q2 chances and that should be tops in the conference. If WSU can go 8-4 with a win over Davidson, then it should be in the mix as a bubble team heading into conference play. Grade: A-

2. Temple

Home: La Salle, Detroit Mercy, Georgia, Loyola-Maryland, Massachusetts, Penn.

Neutral: Legends Classic (VCU and St. John’s*), Davidson, Drexel.

Away: Missouri, Saint Joseph’s, Villanova.

No team is on the road more than Temple, which has three true road games and four more at neutral sites. There’s five Q1 or Q2 chances on the schedule (at Villanova, at Missouri, at Saint Joseph’s, Davidson and VCU) and possibly one more if Temple beats VCU at the Legends Classic with a potential Q1 game against St. John’s. Opportunities will be there for Temple, but it has this brutal seven-game stretch to survive: VCU in Brooklyn, maybe St. John’s in Brooklyn, at Missouri, at Saint Joseph’s, at Villanova, UMass at home and Davidson in Atlantic City. Grade: A-

3. Cincinnati

Home: Ohio State, North Carolina Central, Milwaukee, Western Michigan, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Northern Kentucky, Xavier, UCLA, South Carolina State.

Neutral: Emerald Coast Classic (George Mason and Baylor*).

Away: UNLV, Mississippi State.

There’s not many that are playing a tougher top five games than Cincinnati, which is bringing Ohio State, Xavier and UCLA to its home, likely playing Baylor in Florida and traveling to Mississippi State. Those are all great opportunities to collect Q1 or Q2 wins and if UNLV can work itself up to a Q2, then that road trip could prove fruitful as well. Cincinnati will be hoping at least one among Ohio State, Xavier and UCLA move into the top-30 so one of those home games count as a Q1, but even if that doesn’t happen this is still a solid schedule. Grade: B+

4. Memphis

Home: Tennessee Tech, Yale, South Dakota State, UAB, Tennessee, Little Rock, Tennessee State, Florida A&M.

Neutral: AdvoCare Invitational (Oklahoma State, Canisius* and College of Charleston*), Texas Tech.

Away: LSU.

There should be at least three Q1 chances (at LSU, Texas Tech in Miami and Tennessee at home) and possibly more if Memphis can beat Oklahoma State in the opening round of its tournament. Not only would that net the Tigers a likely Q2 win, but it means it would likely play two more Q1 or Q2 opponents. There’s probably five Q4 games baked in here, but I like bringing in quality mid-majors like Yale and South Dakota State because either could play their way into being a Q2 game. Grade: B

5. UCF

Home: Rider, Florida Atlantic, Northern Kentucky, Alabama, Grambling State, Georgia Southern, Stetson, Illinois State.

Neutral: Myrtle Beach Invitational (Cal State Fullerton, Wake Forest* and West Virginia*).

Away: Missouri.

There are hardly any gimme games on the schedule, but I’m not sure there are many opportunities for Q1 or Q2 wins either. Alabama at home and Missouri on the road are sure to be two such games, but that’s it currently. That’s why it’s crucial for UCF to win its first game in Myrtle Beach to unlock two more chances in that tournament. UCF will be tested by feisty mid-majors like Illinois State, Rider, Northern Kentucky and Georgia Southern, but it can’t afford a slip-up if it wants to build an at-large resume. Grade: B

6. Connecticut

Home: Morehead State, UMKC, Cornell, New Hampshire, Massachusetts Lowell, Arizona, Lafayette, Manhattan, Drexel.

Neutral: 2K Empire Classic (Syracuse and Iowa*), Florida State, Villanova.

Away: None.

There’s no doubt UConn has the flashiest top-end of the schedule, as it will likely play a conference-best four Q1 games from neutral-court games against Syracuse, Florida State, Villanova and either Oregon or Iowa. But how many of those games are the Huskies winning? If it’s zero, then UConn basically only has one chance at a quality win: at home against Arizona. UConn doesn’t play any true road games and the other eight home games are all likely Q4, which brings this schedule down a few notches for me. Grade: B

7. Houston

Home: Alabama A&M, Rice, Northwestern State, UT-Rio Grande Valley, Oregon, Lamar, LSU, Saint Louis, Utah State, Coppin State, NJIT.

Neutral: None.

Away: BYU, Oklahoma State.

This is another schedule that is top-heavy and likely includes eight Q4 games, which is a few too many. If Houston is to chase an at-large bid, then that puts a ton of pressure for it to perform in basically the five games that matter: Oregon, LSU and Saint Louis at home and BYU and Oklahoma State on the road. Houston probably needs to win three of those five to feel comfortable with its resume. Grade: B-

8. Tulsa

Home: Alcorn State, South Carolina State, California Baptist, Little Rock, UT Arlington, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, New Orleans.

Neutral: Las Vegas Invitational (Nevada and Massachusetts*), Dayton.

Away: Utah, Oral Roberts.

This schedule has a little bit of everything. Tulsa has probably at least six games headed for Q4 status, which isn’t ideal, but it also have five solid Q1 or Q2 opportunities that include Nevada in Vegas, Dayton in Connecticut, at Utah and K-State and Oklahoma State at home. That’s a win for Tulsa to bring two Big 12 schools to its home court this season and it deserves props for building a challenging schedule that still should net seven or eight wins at least. Grade: B-

9. SMU

Home: Northwestern State, Southern Miss, Western Carolina, Lipscomb, Lamar, McNeese State, Oral Roberts, TCU, Cornell.

Neutral: Cancun Challenge (Bradley and Penn State*).

Away: Georgetown.

SMU might win 10 games, but its severely limited its chances of scoring Q1 and Q2 wins to build its resume. TCU at home and Georgetown on the road are likely Q1 or Q2 chances and SMU can tack on one more if it beats Bradley in Cancun, but that’s it. Winning one of those three games and starting 10-2 should put SMU in the mix as a bubble team heading into conference season. Grade: C

10. Tulane

Home: Florida State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia State, Southeastern Louisiana, Tennessee Martin, Texas Southern.

Neutral: Gulf Coast Showcase (South Dakota State, UTSA* and Florida Gulf Coast*), Boardwalk Battle (Towson, La Salle*).

Away: South Alabama.

It’s kind of cool that Tulane is bringing Florida State in on its home court. South Dakota State at the Gulf Coast Showcase is likely a Q2 game, as is a likely matchup with La Salle in the Boardwalk Battle. I also like the home game against a good Georgia State team. There are challenging games here, but also likely nine Q3 or Q4 games. Grade: C

11. East Carolina

Home: Delaware State, James Madison, Lamar, UT-Rio Grande Valley, Prairie View A&M, High Point, Appalachian State, Maryland Eastern Shore, North Carolina A&T.

Neutral: None.

Away: Georgia Tech, UNC Wilmington, Charlotte.

It’s clear this is a transition year for first-year coach Joe Dooley and ECU just wants to see how many games it can win before the grueling AAC season. The good news is ECU should be in quite a few games with nine likely Q4 games out of 12 non-conference chances. Grade: D

12. South Florida

Home: Alabama A&M, Austin Peay, Florida A&M, The Citadel, Stetson, Colgate, Appalachian State, Alcorn State, Fairleigh Dickinson.

Neutral: Jamaica Classic (Ohio and Georgetown).

Away: Charlotte, Florida International.

Much like ECU, South Florida just wants to build some confidence heading into conference play. The opportunities will certainly be there with 11 potential Q4 games on this schedule. Grade: D

This story was originally published October 23, 2018 at 3:11 PM.