Here’s how KenPom has Wichita State’s 2018-19 basketball season playing out
Wichita State’s success has always translated more favorably in Ken Pomeroy’s college basketball rankings than in national polls.
The Shockers have finished as a top-30 team in his ratings for eight straight seasons, but they’ll have some work to keep that streak going after the 2018-19 season.
Pomeroy released his preseason rankings over the weekend with WSU coming in at No. 72. According to the KenPom projection model, which is based on cumulative probabilities of winning, WSU is slated for an 18-12 overall record and fifth-place finish in the American Athletic Conference with an 11-7 record.
But in KenPom’s game-by-game probabilities, WSU is favored in 21 of its 30 games and 13 of its 18 conference games. The Shockers are favored in all 15 of their home games, while only six of 15 games away from Koch Arena.
WSU hasn’t won fewer than 25 games since the 2008-09 season, when the Shockers finished 17-17 in Gregg Marshall’s second year. But with just 11 percent of minutes returning from last season, WSU will have its most inexperienced team in the Marshall era this season.
Pomeroy’s cumulative projections has a three-way tie atop the AAC standings between SMU, Cincinnati and Houston followed by UCF and WSU a game behind. But in the game-by-game probabilities, Houston is favored in 15 games, while Cincinnati and SMU are favored in 14 with WSU in fourth at 13. The AAC is rated as the seventh-strongest conference nationally.
In nonconference play, WSU is projected to finish 8-4 going by game-by-game probabilities. Notable wins include a home win over Baylor, a neutral-court win over Davidson and a road win at VCU, while losses include Providence, Purdue, Alabama and Oklahoma.
WSU’s schedule offers seven projected Tier A games in Providence (in Annapolis), Purdue (in Charleston), Alabama (in Charleston), Oklahoma (in Oklahoma City), at Houston, at Cincinnati and at SMU on top of eight Tier B games.
Here’s a look at how KenPom’s projection model has all of WSU’s games playing out this season:
(Note: Heavily favored is anything where WSU has better than a 60 percent chance of winning, while slightly favored is anything less)
Heavily favored (15): UCF (70), Temple (82), Connecticut (102), Memphis (107), Tulsa (114), Louisiana Tech (133), Jacksonville State (160), Southern Miss (165), Tulane (189), at Tulane (189), Oral Roberts (237), Rice (257), East Carolina (279), at East Carolina (279), at South Florida (287).
Slightly favored (6): SMU (37), Baylor (40), Cincinnati (44), #Davidson (83), at Tulsa (114), at VCU (126).
Slight underdog (4): vs. Providence (49), vs. Alabama (51), at Connecticut (102), at Memphis (107).
Heavy underdog (5): vs. Purdue (18), at SMU (37), at Cincinnati (44), at Houston (45), at Oklahoma (52)
WSU game-by-game probabilities
Nov. 6, Louisiana Tech — Win (1-0)
Nov. 9, Providence (in Annapolis, Md.) — Loss (1-1)
Nov. 15, Davidson (in Charleston, S.C.) — Win (2-1)
Nov. 16, Purdue (in Charleston, S.C.) — Loss (2-2)
Nov. 18, Alabama (in Charleston, S.C.) — Loss (2-3)
Nov. 25, Rice — Win (3-3)
Dec. 1, Baylor — Win (4-3)
Dec. 8, Oklahoma (in Oklahoma City) — Loss (4-4)
Dec. 12, Jacksonville State — Win (5-4)
Dec. 15, Southern Miss (at Intrust Bank Arena) — Win (6-4)
Dec. 19, Oral Roberts — Win (7-4)
Dec. 22, at VCU — Win (8-4)
Jan. 3, at Memphis — Loss (8-5, 0-1)
Jan. 6, Temple — Win (9-5, 1-1)
Jan. 12, at Houston — Loss (9-6, 1-2)
Jan. 16, UCF — Win (10-6, 2-2)
Jan. 19, Cincinnati — Win (11-6, 3-2)
Jan. 22, at South Florida — Win (12-6, 4-2)
Jan. 26, at Connecticut — Loss (12-7, 4-3)
Jan. 30, SMU — Win (13-7, 5-3)
Feb. 2, Tulsa — Win (14-7, 6-3)
Feb. 6, at East Carolina — Win (15-7, 7-3)
Feb. 9, Tulane — Win (16-7, 8-3)
Feb. 17, at Cincinnati — Loss (16-8, 8-4)
Feb. 20, at Tulsa — Win (17-8, 9-4)
Feb. 23, Memphis — Win (18-8, 10-4)
Feb. 28, Connecticut — Win (19-8, 11-4)
March 3, at SMU — Loss (19-9, 11-5)
March 5, East Carolina — Win (20-9, 12-5)
March 9, at Tulane — Win (21-9, 13-5)
This story was originally published October 22, 2018 at 12:27 PM.