The NCAA is scrapping the RPI. Why the new system is a win for Wichita State
The NCAA announced on Wednesday that it is making a change in the way it evaluates college basketball teams during the NCAA Tournament selection process.
Gone is the rating percentage index (RPI), first used in 1981 and had since become a bugaboo for the Wichita State men’s basketball team during its rise in the Missouri Valley Conference under Gregg Marshall, and replacing it will be a new metric called the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET).
Here’s what you need to know about the new metric and how it will affect the Shockers.
How it works
NET will rely on “game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses,” according to a NCAA release.
“What has been developed is a contemporary method of looking at teams analytically, using results-based and predictive metrics that will assist the men’s basketball committee as it reviews games throughout the season,” said Dan Gavitt, the NCAA’s senior vice president of basketball, said in the statement. “While no perfect rankings exist, using the results of past tournaments will help ensure that the rankings are built on an objective source of truth.”
The biggest change from the RPI to the NET is the inclusion of predictive metrics like KenPom and Sagarin, which means a step forward for rewarding the most efficient teams. While scoring margin is also now included, it’s important to note that its impact will be capped at 10 points to prevent rewarding a team for running up the score.
This is the second straight year the NCAA has made a major change in evaluating tournament teams. Last year top-50 wins were replaced by a quadrant system that placed a higher importance on road wins, rewarding top-75 road wins the same as top-30 home wins and so on.
The lone problem with the NET initially appears to be the NCAA’s unwillingness to publicize the exact formula of how teams are evaluated.
What it means for the Shockers
Last season’s change to the quadrant system was a big win for Wichita State, which has been college basketball’s best true road team the last five seasons.
Marshall has tried to schedule as aggressively as possible and even with his most inexperienced team yet, he has WSU playing Oklahoma, Baylor, Providence, VCU, and in a competitive Charleston Classic field. And that’s on top of the upgrade to the American Athletic Conference, which significantly boosted WSU’s strength of schedule last season.
Wednesday’s changes to feature efficiency measures more prominently makes Wichita State a clear winner. The Shockers have consistently been regarded favorably by advanced metrics, only to be spurned by the NCAA Tournament selection committee and the RPI.
WSU has finished as a top-30 team in KenPom for the last eight seasons and entered the NCAA Tournament as a top-20 team in seven of those eight years. The most damage the RPI inflicted came in a three-year stretch beginning in 2015 when a 28-4 WSU team rated No. 15 overall by KenPom earned a No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The next two years were worse, a No. 20-rated WSU team in 2016 was forced to the play-in game as No. 11 seed and a No. 8-rated WSU team that was 30-4 in 2017 was given a No. 10 seed.
After introducing the quadrant system last season, WSU immediately benefited. The Shockers played a challenging non-conference and even without winning their conference earned their highest NCAA Tournament seed (No. 4) during its eight-year March run outside of the 34-0 season in 2013-14.
To illustrate how Wednesday’s change should positively affect WSU’s future seeding, here’s a look at how WSU’s KenPom finishes have correlated to its actual NCAA Tournament seeding. The team’s record and KenPom rating is at the time of seeding before the NCAA Tournament.
If WSU stays an efficiency darling, fans should expect to see seeds closer to the left column than past results listed on the right.
This story was originally published August 22, 2018 at 2:40 PM.