Quick scout: Why Wichita State’s posts are poised for a big game at Temple

No. 16 Wichita State (17-4, 7-2 AAC) at Temple (11-10, 3-6)

When: 6 p.m., Thursday

Where: Liacouras Center, Philadelphia, Pa. (10,206)

TV: ESPN2 (Kevin Brown & John Thompson III)

Streaming: WatchESPN

Series: Temple leads 3-0

Radio: 103.7-FM and GoShockers.com

Live stats: GoShockers.com

KenPom Says

WSU ranking: No. 20

Temple ranking: No. 85

Score prediction: Wichita State 74, Temple 70

WSU’s winning odds: 63%

Projected lineups

Coach: Gregg Marshall, 11th season, 278-94

Coach: Fran Dunphy, 12th season, 241-146

Temple season-to-date

Temple arguably had the best non-conference of any team in the American, as the Owls own top-100 victories over Auburn, Clemson, Old Dominion, South Carolina, and Wisconsin. Temple was poised to make a run at an NCAA Tournament at-large berth entering conference play, then lost its first four games (including a home loss to Tulane) and five of its first six games. Temple rebounded over the weekend, beating down Connecticut by 28 points.

3 WSU Keys

1. Get off to a good shooting start (for once)

Slow starts have been a theme all season, but especially on the road. Did you know that Wichita State has not held a single lead in any one of its six road games this season after 10 minutes?

The Shockers narrowly trailed Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Connecticut, was tied with lowly East Carolina, then trounced early by Tulsa and Houston. Give WSU credit: it rallied to win five of those games. After all, since the 2010-11 season, no team in college basketball has been better on the road than Gregg Marshall’s squad.

Marshall has dismissed the importance of the team’s slow starts, but it still seems important for WSU to start playing better at the beginning of games before March.

Poor shooting starts have plagued the Shockers on the road, as they average just 12 points after 10 minutes in their six road games. For an offense that pumps out 1.14 points per possession, the 12th-highest in college basketball, that is far below its capabilities.

What a time for Landry Shamet and Conner Frankamp to snap out of their slumps.

2. Dominate inside and let Rashard Kelly go to work

For a team that starts a pair of 6-foot-10 players in its starting lineup, Temple is surprising vulnerable in its interior defense.

AAC teams are making 51.6 percent of their two-point shots against Temple, the second-worst mark in conference and nearly a full two percent below the national average. Per Synergy, the Owls are allowing AAC opponents to finish 56.9 percent of their shots near the rim. That’s a problem.

Enter Wichita State’s three-headed monster at center in Shaquille Morris, Rauno Nurger, and Darral Willis, who are shooting a combined 63.9 percent on shots near the rim. Morris is especially finishing at a high rate this season, as the senior is finishing on close to 72 percent of his shots in his last seven games.

Not only does Temple struggle to defend the rim, but it is absolutely getting dominated rebounding when it is on defense. Opponents are tracking down 35.9 percent of their own misses in conference play, which ranks last. WSU is third in the AAC in grabbing 35.2 percent of offensive rebounds.

This is a dream matchup for Rashard Kelly, who is third in the nation in offensive rebound percentage. It will be interesting to see if he can top his career-high of seven offensive rebounds in a game. Expect to see a Shaq follow dunk (or two or three) and don’t be surprised if Willis snatches a few put-backs, as well.

Simply put: one of WSU’s biggest strengths is the opponent’s biggest weakness. The only question will be how much can the Shockers exploit it?

3. Don’t let Temple get hot from three-point line

Temple has fallen in love with the three-point shot in conference play, as the Owls are chucking up threes on nearly 42 percent of their shots. The problem? They’re rarely making them, as Temple ranks 10th in AAC play shooting a tick under 29 percent as a team.

But the three-point line has been the equalizer for overmatched teams like California, South Dakota State, Arkansas State, Florida Gulf Coast, and Tulsa to stay competitive with Wichita State this season. If you remove the performance against Cincinnati’s defense, Temple has averaged 9.8 threes per game in its last five outings.

That means staying attached to Quinton Rose and Shizz Alston on the perimeter, something WSU struggled to do with Corey Henderson of Tulsa even when it made it the No. 1 priority on its scouting report. WSU is actually allowing fewer three-point shots in conference play, but opponents’ shooting percentage has gone up to 34.1 percent on three-pointers.

I usually say the magic number for an opponent to stay with WSU is to make 40 percent of its threes, which usually generates around 10 threes. If Temple can do that, then we might have a game on our hands in WSU’s first appearance at the Liacouras Center in Philadelphia.

But if WSU can run Temple’s shooters off the line and limit their shooting percentage closer to the 35 percent range, then it shouldn’t have a problem with the Owls if the Shockers can manage just an average offensive output.

Taylor’s Prediction

I was really high on Temple entering AAC play, picking the Owls as my sleeper to finish fourth in conference. I was convinced after watching Temple rattle off five top-100 wins, including gems over Auburn and Clemson.

But Temple has since tanked, starting 0-4 in AAC play and currently sitting at 3-6 and near the bottom of the conference standings. There’s no doubt the potential is still there, evident by the game at home against Cincinnati when Temple had a chance to win but eventually lost 55-53.

This is just not a great matchup for Temple, which struggles to defend the paint and even more to keep opponents away from offensive rebounds. Those are two of WSU’s biggest strengths and the Shockers should be able to exploit their depth and rotate Shaquille Morris, Darral Willis, and Rauno Nurger in to wreck havoc. I would expect Rashard Kelly to also have a big game tracking down rebounds.

Temple can stay in this game if WSU gets off to its traditional slow start and the Owls knock down more than usual three-pointers. They certainly have the capability and they are coming off a 28-point beatdown of UConn in which the Owls posted a 1.39 points per possession.

WSU’s defense is nowhere close to its elite level of previous season, but it took a step in the right direction last week. The Shockers also have arguably the best shooting and passing team in the Marshall Era — and that’s with Landry Shamet and Conner Frankamp currently in a shooting funk.

If either of those two get it going on Thursday, then WSU should win. Even if they don’t, I still think the Shockers will be able to win the rebounding battle and give themselves enough second chances to earn this victory on the road.

I’m optimistic that Shamet will find his groove playing in a road environment and he will spur on WSU’s most crisp performance on the road.

Wichita State 82, Temple 65

This story was originally published February 1, 2018 at 7:59 AM with the headline "Quick scout: Why Wichita State’s posts are poised for a big game at Temple."