WSU quick scout: What will UCF look like without 7-6 center Tacko Fall?

Central Florida (13-6, 4-3 AAC) at No. 17 Wichita State (15-4, 5-2)

When: 8 p.m., Thursday

Where: Koch Arena, Wichita, Kan. (10,506)

TV: ESPN2 (Kevin Brown & John Thompson III)

Streaming: WatchESPN

Series: First meeting

Radio: 103.7-FM and GoShockers.com

Live stats: GoShockers.com

KenPom Says

WSU ranking: No. 23

UCF ranking: No. 94

Score prediction: Wichita State 69, UCF 58

WSU’s winning odds: 84%

Projected lineups

Coach: Johnny Dawkins, second season, 37-18

Coach: Gregg Marshall, 11th season, 276-94

UCF season-to-date

Injuries have decimated a Central Florida team that was primed for a run at a NCAA Tournament berth. Before the season, Aubrey Dawkins, the coach’s son, was lost for the season due to injury, then the team’s star guard B.J. Taylor was injured and missed 16 games. A few games after Taylor returned, then the team’s 7-foot-6 center, Tacko Fall, injured his shoulder and surgery will prevent him from playing the rest of the season. UCF has still managed to piece together a 13-6 record and a defense that ranks No. 5 in the nation on KenPom’s efficiency. But that will change drastically without Fall protecting the paint. In UCF’s first game without Fall, it had to rally in the final minute to defeat South Florida 71-69. The Knights are 12-0 this season when scoring at least 60 points.

3 Strengths

Defense: It’s difficult to tell just how far UCF will drop on defense without 7-foot-6 center Tacko Fall, who certainly played a role in opponents shooting 40.6 percent (third-best in the nation) on two-pointers. Fall had by far the best Defensive Rating (83.6) on the team, so it’s safe to assume there will be some regression. But until further evidence, I’m still counting this as a team strength for a defense holding opponents to 59.1 points on average on 37.8 percent shooting.

Controlling tempo: The American is one of the slowest conferences, by pace, in the country and UCF is a big reason why. The Knights are playing at the 39th-slowest pace in the country, per Ken Pom, and are taking nearly 19 seconds off the shot clock every offensive possession. Playing fast against an offensively-potent team like WSU is the last thing UCF wants, so it will be an interesting game-within-the-game to watch for tonight how WSU can speed up the game.

Defending the three-point line: Much is made about Fall’s presence in the paint, but UCF’s defense was actually doing an above-average job of preventing three-pointers and limiting good looks. Opponents are shooting just 32.6 percent beyond the arc this season and UCF’s defense has a top-100 rate in limiting three-pointers. Despite coming off their worst-shooting game recently, the Shockers are making nearly 40 percent of their three-pointers and are one of the top three-point shooting teams in the country.

3 Weaknesses

Offense: Some of this isn’t fair because the team’s best offensive player, B.J. Taylor, has only played in three games. But some of the offensive numbers UCF has put up this season have been downright scary. This is a team that has scored under 50 points three times already. UCF’s offense ranks No. 291 on KenPom thanks to poor shooting as a team and the 19th-highest turnover rate in the country. For a WSU defense that badly needs to start disrupting, this is a perfect opportunity.

Three-point shooting: The team has shooters that can hit, but they are incredibly streaky. Taylor and fellow guard Djordjije Mumin (46 percent) are the only two on the roster that should be hugged on the perimeter at all times. UCF is shooting 31 percent on three-pointers with those two — take those two out and UCF has hit 27 percent of its attempts. This has been an area of concern for WSU’s defense, but if it takes care of Taylor and Mumin then it could be a bounceback effort.

Defending multiple passes: If WSU makes passes with a purpose, then that is the one area where UCF’s defense has struggled to defend this season. On the baskets teams are scoring against the Knights, nearly 57 percent of them have been assisted — a bottom-third mark in college basketball. Wichita State is assisting on 63.5 percent of its made baskets, the 11th-highest mark in the country.

3 Players to Watch

6-2 guard B.J. Taylor (No. 1)

He was a preseason conference pick, but was injured early in the season and missed 16 games. He returned nine days ago against Cincinnati and played 21 minutes, while he came off the bench on Jan. 20 and played 31 minutes and scored 25 points in a win over South Florida. He appears ready to fully go against Wichita State. Taylor will likely receive several ball screens and he will go to work based on what the defense gives him. He’s a dangerous threat moving toward the basket and finished at a high rate near the rim last season. He’s also a knock-down shooter who moves well off-ball and will be a threat to the Shockers wherever he is on the court, especially on a team that lacks offensive punch. Expect to see a lot of Zach Brown and Markis McDuffie on him.

6-9 post A.J. Davis (No. 3)

After missing the South Florida game, Davis is reportedly ready to return to face WSU in the post. He’s the team’s most consistent rebounder without Fall and has the size to match WSU’s post players down on the blocks. Davis has tried to be more of a threat this season from the three-point line, but is shooting 16 percent on three-pointers above the foul-line this season. He’s more effective closer to the basket, but even then he is shooting just 50 percent on attempts near the rim, far below what you would hope for a 6-9 post player. According to Synergy, Davis rates as an “Excellent” defender and his numbers are really good in defending the pick and roll.

6-9 post Chad Brown (No. 21)

The man who is replacing Tacko Fall in UCF’s lineup, Brown got off to an excellent start in the win over USF when he posted a double-double of 13 points and 10 rebounds. He has been really good for the Knights every time he has received significant minutes this season. Brown has been the best rebounder on the team on a per-minute basis and he is killing teams on the offensive glass, where he is pulling down 13.8 percent when he’s on the floor. He’s a complete non-entity outside of the lane, but he is making 60 percent of his shots near the rim and doing most of his damage on offensive rebound putbacks. If WSU can keep him off the glass, then it will limit his effectiveness.

Shocker to Watch

It’s been five days since Wichita State lost its second consecutive game in conference play for the first time since 2013 and much has happened. Senior Rashard Kelly delivered the speech that teammates said needed to happen and by all accounts WSU was back to operating at a much higher level in practices leading up to the game.

That’s why I’m picking Kelly as my WSU player to watch in this game. UCF is a tough, defensive team, so the Shockers will have to prove they can back up their talk of being more aggressive and being tougher this week. Kelly was one of the only players who had spurts of great play in Houston and I think he will back it up with another strong performance tonight.

What does that equate to? Maybe it’s not scoring, but I think you can Kelly to be there making the little plays — taking charges, diving for loose balls, boxing out — to help WSU get back on track. This is going to be a low-possession game, so I don’t think Kelly reaches 10 rebounds but I do think he will grab at least four offensive rebounds and take one charge this game.

Taylor’s Prediction

This game would have been a lot more interesting with Tacko Fall in the mix. UCF had a legitimate top-10 defense in college basketball with its 7-foot-6 giant in the lane, which would have been quite the test for a WSU team coming off back-to-back losses in American play.

While UCF is still a threat without Fall, its nowhere close to being as dangerous. The Knights can still slow down the play and try to limit possessions, but their offense struggles to score so much that it will be really difficult for this team to continue winning if its defense doesn’t remain at an elite level.

This is a game Wichita State should win by double-digits, especially if the players are true to their word and come out and resurrect the “Play Angry” mantra on the court. The Shockers need to play desperately, like SMU and Houston did last week, and show flashes of being a top-10 team again.

The matchup on the court is a great one. When WSU’s offense is clicking, it’s moving the ball and finding open shots on the perimter and the Shockers have the three-point shooting to take down UCF. WSU’s defense is among the bottom-third in the country at forcing turnovers and steals and UCF’s offense gives it an opportunity to improve those numbers because the Knights are among the worst in the nation in both of those categories.

UCF is going to want to slow this game down to a crawl after it saw the success SMU had with the stall tactics last week. I’m sure UCF will throw a zone defense at WSU at some point, as well. These are all things the Shockers are going to have to prove consistently they can overcome.

I think they take a step in the right direction tonight.

Wichita State 76, Central Florida 55

This story was originally published January 25, 2018 at 4:19 PM with the headline "WSU quick scout: What will UCF look like without 7-6 center Tacko Fall?."