Quick scout: What Wichita State can do to finish off the season sweep of Houston

No. 7 Wichita State (15-3, 5-1 AAC) at Houston (14-4, 4-2)

When: 11 a.m., Saturday

Where: H&PE Arena, Houston, Texas (8,100)

TV: ESPNU

Streaming: WatchESPN

Series: WSU leads 17-9 (UH leads 7-5 in Houston)

Radio: 103.7-FM and GoShockers.com

Live stats: GoShockers.com

KenPom Says

WSU ranking: No. 15

Houston ranking: No. 44

Score prediction: Wichita State 77, Houston 76

WSU’s winning odds: 52%

Projected lineups

Coach: Gregg Marshall, 11th season, 276-93

Coach: Kelvin Sampson, fourth season, 70-44

Houston season-to-date

Houston is currently on the brink of an at-large berth, listed as a team on the “next four out” in ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s latest NCAA Tournament projections following Wednesday’s loss at Tulane. Houston pieced together a decent non-conference resume, owning wins over Arkansas, Providence, and Wake Forest, but a loss to KenPom No. 268 Drexel could come back to haunt it. The Cougars will be the fourth straight team WSU has faced coming off a loss, as they will surely be looking for redemption for an 18-point loss in WSU that was really a 30-point game when WSU let up.

3 Strengths

Rebounding: Despite ranking No. 324 in the country in average height, Houston ranks 21st in the country in offensive rebounding percentage at 35.3 percent. For reference, that’s a tick higher than Wichita State. Houston is a little more susceptible to giving up offensive rebounds on defense, but still ranks 60th in the country. Both of those marks have continued in conference play, as Houston ranks third in both tracking down its own misses and limiting offensive rebounds in AAC play.

Three-point shooting: Houston doesn’t shoot threes at a high rate, but the team can stroke it when it does. The Cougars are shooting 39.7 percent from beyond the arc, the 29th-best percentage in the country, although that number has come down to 36 percent in conference play. Corey Davis Jr. is the team’s best shooter, knocking down nearly three three-pointers per game at a 44.7 percent clip. Rob Gray is also a threat as a 38-percent shooter.

Protecting the paint: Houston’s two-point defense ranks 22nd in the country, as opponents are shooting just 44 percent on two-pointers this season. Despite its lack of a rim protector, Houston is holding opponents to shooting 50.8 percent near the rim. Houston is doing a good job of forcing teams to pull-up from mid-range, as opponents are taking nearly 10 mid-range jumpers per game.

3 Weaknesses

Fouling: Houston is averaging 21 fouls per game, which translates to a 40.1 percent free throw rate and means Houston is putting opponents on the foul line at the No. 288 rate in the country. This is an area where WSU could take advantage since the Shockers are shooting 73 percent as a team.

Guarding the three: As Wichita State exploited the first time, Houston has struggled guarding the three-point line. Opponents are shooting 36 percent from beyond the arc in conference play, which is the 10th-worst percentage in AAC play. Despite this, opponents are only taking threes on 38 percent of its shots in conference play — a mark that is surely to rise against WSU, which took nearly 47 percent of its shots from beyond the arc the first game.

Pick and roll defense: Per Synergy, Houston ranks in the 36th percentile on its defense when the ball handler finishes the play on pick-and-rolls. This is good news for WSU, which ranks in the 90th percentile on those pick-and-roll plays, and Landry Shamet and Conner Frankamp, who run those plays a combined 68 percent of the time at an extremely efficient level for WSU.

3 Players to Watch

6-1 senior Rob Gray (No. 32)

Gray is the returning leading scorer from the AAC last season and is averaging 19 points this season on 48 percent shooting. He’s also making 38 percent of his three-pointers and 86 percent of his foul shots. A lot of possessions are going to end with Gray, who draws a lot of fouls and attention from the defense. Gray ranks in the 85th percentile of efficiency, per Synergy, and does most of his damage in the pick and roll and in transition. He’s another player who loves to finish on the right side, so if WSU can make him finish left of the rim then it could limit his efficiency. He was visibly upset with his team’s play in Wichita, as Gray finished 13 points on 14 shots in the first game.

6-6 senior Devin Davis (No. 15)

Davis is a perfect representation of Houston: undersized, but tough on the boards. He’s only 6-6, but still pulls down 20 percent of the defensive rebounds when he’s on the cout (No. 240 in the country) and leads Houston with 6.3 rebounds per game. In an age where everyone wants to shoot three-pointers, Davis’ offense mostly comes on long two-pointers. In fact, 76 percent of his shots are between 17 and 20 feet. His favorite spot is on the right side, where he has made 20 of 37 long jumpers this season. Davis only scored seven points and grabbed five rebounds against WSU in the first game.

6-8 junior Breaon Brady (No. 24)

Brady missed the first game against WSU after badly spraining his ankle the game before against Temple, which was his best game of the season with 21 points and nine rebounds. He has played in 10 minutes in Houston’s last two games and it remains to be seen if he can play a critical role in Saturday’s game. But he’s been Houston’s best rebounder in his limited minutes, as he grabs a team-high 15 percent of offensive rebounds when he’s on the floor and team-high 26 percent of defensive rebounds. He’s a non-threat outside of the paint, as he has not attempted a shot further away from five feet from the basket all season. But he’ll be a load to keep off the glass and could give Houston a big body to slow down Shaquille Morris in the post.

Shocker to Watch

I think (or you would hope) that Wichita State took it personal that Shake Milton came into Koch Arena and powered SMU to a victory to snap the Shockers’ winning ways inside Koch Arena. I think Landry Shamet may have taken it more personal than anyone else, as it was the second time (OU’s Trae Young being the other) another guard has stole the show and handed WSU a loss.

Shamet had an excellent game in the first game against Houston, making 6 of 8 shots and scoring a game-high 18 points. Throw in some motivation heading into Saturday and given his penchant for playing big in road games, I think we are going to see a Shamet explosion on Saturday around the 25-point range.

Wichita State’s loss on Wednesday doesn’t make the Houston game a must-win, but it certainly would leave little margin for error potentially falling two games behind Cincinnati in the race for the AAC title with a loss on Saturday. I think we’ll see Shamet make sure WSU doesn’t have to worry about that, as it extends the nation’s longest road winning streak.

Taylor’s Prediction

Wichita State simply overwhelmed Houston in the first game, scoring 53 points and drilling 10 three-pointers in the first half to build a 21-point lead. How much motivation will the Cougars have from that game, playing in front of what is expected to be their biggest home crowd of the season this time around?

You can bet that the Shockers will receive a stiffer test from Houston on Saturday, especially with UH coming off a frustrating loss on the road at Tulane. Wichita State will have some frustrations of its own to unlease after leeting its 27-game winning streak at Koch Arena slip away in a loss to SMU on Wednesday. But WSU can extend another streak on Saturday with a road win, which would be the 12th straight win on the road for the Shockers.

Houston is a team capable of following the roadmap to hanging with WSU: hit a lot of three-pointers. The Cougars don’t take a ton of threes, but they’re accurate and have the capability of making 10-plus on the right day. Ensuring a repeat of Wednesday’s game doesn’t occur will be task No. 1 for a WSU defense that surely took a hit on its pride.

But this is a matchup that WSU’s offense should continue to thrive. Yes, the Shockers made a lot of contested shots in the first game. But they also were able to find plenty of open shots and that should continue with Landry Shamet running the show and Conner Frankamp and Austin Reaves waiting on the wings.

This road trip may feel uneasy for a lot of fans coming off the SMU loss and it will certainly test the resolve of WSU. But I still like the matchup a second time around and think WSU’s mixture of outside shooting and inside presence with Shaquille Morris will be enough to pick up another road win.

Wichita State 79, Houston 70

This story was originally published January 19, 2018 at 3:23 AM with the headline "Quick scout: What Wichita State can do to finish off the season sweep of Houston."