Quick scout: Why WSU has chance for big rebounding game against SMU

SMU (12-6, 2-3 AAC) at No. 7 Wichita State (15-2, 5-0)

When: 6 p.m., Wednesday

Where: Koch Arena, Wichita, Kan. (10,506)

TV: ESPNU (Anish Shroff & Dino Gaudio)

Streaming: WatchESPN

Series: SMU leads 5-4 (WSU laeds 3-1 in Wichita)

Radio: 103.7-FM and GoShockers.com

Live stats: GoShockers.com

KenPom Says

WSU ranking: No. 11

SMU ranking: No. 36

Score prediction: Wichita State 74, SMU 66

WSU’s winning odds: 75%

Projected lineups

Coach: Tim Jankovich, third season, 51-11

Coach: Gregg Marshall, 11th season, 276-92

SMU season-to-date

SMU has had an up-and-down season, in part due to trying to replace 58 percent of its minutes from last season. The Mustangs have nice non-conference victories over Arizona, USC, and Boise State and began AAC play 2-0, including a win over Central Florida, but have since hit a rough patch losing three in a row to Tulane, Cincinnati, and Temple. SMU was in the mix for an at-large berth to the NCAA Tournament by many bracketologists, but has since fallen out of the projected field.

3 Strengths

Three-point shooting: SMU runs a dribble-drive offense and it loves to penetrate and kick-out to the open shooter on the perimeter. Five of the six players who average over 20 minutes are three-point shooters and SMU is shooting 41.3 percent from beyond the arc, the 12th-best accuracy in the country. But that’s only coming out to a 8.8 average per game because SMU isn’t taking a ton of three-pointers and remaining selective on its shots. WSU’s three-point defense ranks 87th in the country, as teams are shooting just 33 percent against the Shockers.

Controlling tempo: SMU plays at the 313th slowest pace in college basketball, according to KenPom’s adjusted tempo. There are only 67 possessions in the average SMU game, the 11th fewest in college basketball. For reference, WSU ranks 98th in the country at 74 possessions per game. The Mustangs are taking nearly 19 seconds off the shot clock every time they touch the ball. So far this season only TCU (in a 94-83 victory) has successfully sped SMU up. This could be much like WSU’s two slowest-paced games of the season against Notre Dame (a 67-66 loss) in Maui and at Baylor (a 69-62 win).

Forcing turnovers: SMU’s defense has been among the nation’s leaders in generating turnovers so far this season. The Mustangs are forcing opponents to commit turnovers on 23.8 percent of their possessions, the ninth-best rate in the country. SMU is generating steals on 12.2 percent of possessions, also the ninth-best rate in the country. That comes out to averages of 15.6 turnovers per game for opponents and eight steals per game for SMU. WSU is an above-average team at preventing turnovers, as its turnover rate of 17.1 percent on offense ranks 62nd in the country.

3 Weaknesses

Defensive rebounding: SMU has had a difficult time keeping opponents from rebounding their own misses this season. Teams are grabbing 30.1 percent of their own misses, which ranks 227th in the country for a defense. This is in part due to SMU playing four-guard lineups, but the Mustangs are an above-average offensive rebounding team. This is an area where WSU can exploit SMU, as the Shockers rank 40th in the country with a 34.3 percent offensive rebounding rate and will routinely have the advantage in the post when it plays two bigs together.

Foul shooting: SMU isn’t getting to the foul line very much this season and it is struggling heavily when it does. The Mustangs are shooting just 66.6 percent as a team, which ranks 301st in the country. They’re shooting even worse in five AAC games at 63.3 percent. Basically send anyone other than Shake Milton (81.3 percent shooter) or Jahmal McMurray (90 percent shooter) to the line and it’s close to a 50-50 proposition.

Three-point defense: A defensive staple of SMU in recent seasons has been to pack the paint and discourage teams from trying to score inside. As a result, that’s left the three-point line open for those willing to take advantage. So far this season 43 percent of opponent’s shots against SMU have been three-pointers, which is the 30th-highest rate in the country. Even with that, SMU has allowed 10 or more three-pointers just five times this season. WSU is averaging 9.8 per game and shooting 40.8 percent as a team (the 20th-best mark in the country), so that could change if SMU continues to collapse inside.

3 Players to Watch

6-6 guard Shake Milton (No. 1)

Milton was picked as the preseason AAC Player of the Year after averaging 13.0 points and 4.5 assists for SMU last season. He’s upped every part of his game as a junior, averaging 17.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.5 assists for the Mustangs. He’s skilled at getting to the rim and finishing, but he also takes more than six three-pointers per game and is shooting them at an efficient 41.5 percent clip.

6-9 post Ethan Chargois (No. 5)

Chargois is the only post in the starting lineup for SMU and is by far the biggest body SMU has at 6-foot-9 and 235 pounds, although he is just a freshman. He only plays 23 minutes per game, but is one of SMU’s most efficient players with averages of 11.6 points and 5.2 rebounds. He’s making 57 percent of his two-pointers, while has knocked down 26 threes and is taking more than three per game and shooting at a 41.9 percent clip.

6-5 wing Ben Emelogu (No. 21)

The NCAA leaderboard doesn’t include Emelogu because he doesn’t have quite the volume (he’s still taking four threes per game), but he actually leads the country in three-point percentage at 58.9 percent. He will be a top threat for SMU every time he’s on the floor, although his usage rate on SMU is the equivalent of Zach Brown on WSU. Emelogu is shooting a career-high percentage in a bizarre twist, as he was a career 32-percent three-point shooter his first three years at SMU.

Shocker to Watch

WSU is shooting 44 percent from beyond the arc and connecting on almost 11 three-pointers per game at Koch Arena this season, a trend that should continue against a team in SMU that doesn’t mind giving up the three-point line. That means the trifecta of Landry Shamet, Conner Frankamp, and Austin Reaves should be in line for plenty of opportunities tonight.

But look at SMU’s six losses this season and what is the common thread? Opponents dominated the paint, which led to 54.5 percent shooting on two-pointers — well above SMU’s average of 46.1. That’s why I think this will be a big game for Shaquille Morris, who is coming off a quiet performance (6 points, 1 rebound in 18 minutes) at Tulsa. WSU will want to work inside-out and no one is better on WSU at scoring inside than Morris, who should establish his presence early in the first half.

A darkhorse pick? Rauno Nurger, who scored 22 points in WSU’s two-game road swing. Nurger has played his way back in Marshall’s rotation and if Morris falters or gets in early foul trouble, look for Nurger to pick up the slack.

Taylor’s Prediction

I was shocked by Marshall’s answer when I asked him on Tuesday if WSU’s plan was going to be speed SMU up. The Mustangs play at a crawl, the 313th-slowest tempo according to KenPom’s adjusted tempo.

Wouldn’t WSU want to slap on that diamond press and try to speed up a SMU team isn’t comfortable playing fast and doesn’t have the depth to match WSU?

“No, we don’t mind,” Marshall said about playing at a slow pace. “We can play at different paces. I’m not worried about the speed limit of that game, I just want to have more points than them in the end.”

Only three teams have scored more than 70 points against SMU this season and all three times the Mustangs have lost. It’s pretty simple for SMU: keep this game in the 60s and it will have a shot. But if the tempo creeps up even a little and WSU hits the 70-point threshold, a win in Koch Arena seems unlikely.

Perimeter defense will be crucial. WSU will have to remain disciplined, as SMU loves nothing more than driving to collapse a defense then kicking out for an open three-pointer. So the task begins up top with either Zach Brown (likely covering Shake Milton), Landry Shamet or Conner Frankamp to contain dribble penetration.

“We’ve got to defend 1 on 1, for sure,” Marshall said. “We’ve got to communicate well and be in the gaps and guard your yard and contest all shots. They can really make shots. So hopefully limit them to one and then head the other way.”

Another thing to watch for tonight from WSU is a renewed effort from the bigs rebounding on the offensive end. It’s an area where SMU struggles and was a point of emphasis for Marshall in practice this week, despite WSU ranking fourth nationally in rebounding margin.

“I still don’t have guys going to the glass like I would want,” Marshall said. “Certain guys are not rebounding like they can or should. The beautiful thing is if they don’t make an effort to rebound, then they don’t have to be out there for very long. That’s the carrot for them is to rebound and defend, take care of the basketball, and then you’re going to get your minutes.”

On his radio show, Marshall said he needs more rebounders like Rashard Kelly, Markis McDuffie, and Zach Brown. So although he didn’t mention them by name, look for the above quote to be applied to Shaquille Morris, Darral Willis, and Rauno Nurger tonight against SMU.

SMU is a talented team and it can make this a very interesting game if it connects on 10 or more three-pointers. But I don’t like this matchup for them. While it might not be pretty, WSU should be able to out-grind them in a slow-tempo game. I still won’t be surprised if Marshall switches to a press to speed SMU up at some point and let WSU take advantage of its depth.

I think WSU will win the battle inside, which will open up the perimeter for a barrage of three-pointers. The Shockers have played well at home in the AAC and that will continue tonight with a quality victory over SMU.

Wichita State 72, SMU 60

This story was originally published January 17, 2018 at 1:54 PM with the headline "Quick scout: Why WSU has chance for big rebounding game against SMU."