WSU scout: This Shocker has a chance to excel against Houston

Houston (12-2) at No. 9 Wichita State (11-2)

When: 6 p.m., Thursday

Where: Koch Arena, Wichita, Kan. (10,506)

TV: ESPN (Adam Amin & John Thompson III)

Streaming: WatchESPN

Series: WSU leads 16-9 (11-2 in Wichita)

Radio: 103.7-FM and GoShockers.com

Live stats: GoShockers.com

KenPom Says

WSU ranking: No. 11

Houston ranking: No. 38

Score prediction: Wichita State 79, Houston 72

WSU’s winning odds: 76%

Projected lineups

Coach: Kelvin Sampson, fourth season, 68-42

Coach: Gregg Marshall, 11th season, 272-92

Houston season-to-date

Houston is on the NCAA Tournament bubble at the moment, despite its 12-2 record. The Cougars have KenPom top-75 victories over Wake Forest, Arkansas, Providence, and Temple, but their 84-80 loss to No. 242 Drexel in the second game of the season is a hindrance. Houston can play its way into the tournament with a strong finish in conference play, so the Cougars will be extra hungry for a win on Thursday over WSU that could punch their postseason ticket later in the season.

3 Strengths

Rebounding: Houston is one of only four teams in the country to rank in the top-40 of offensive rebounding percentage for both offense and defense. The Cougars grab nearly 36 percent of their own misses, the 27th-best rate, and limit opponents to 25 percent, the 39th-best rate. And Houston does it all despite ranking No. 324 in the country in average height.

Transition offense: Nearly 19 percent of Houston’s possessions come in transition and the Cougars are efficient on the break. Houston is scoring at 1.14 points per possession in transition, which ranks in the 78th percentile of college basketball. Houston is making 55 percent of its shots and scoring on 49 percent of its possessions.

The pick and roll: This is the Rob Gray Effect. Houston is scoring at 0.97 PPP when the possession ends with the ball handler in the pick and roll, which ranks in the 97th percentile of college basketball. Gray himself accounts for 56 percent of those possessions and is scoring at 1.13 PPP, one of the best marks in the country.

3 Weaknesses

Fouling: Houston is averaging nearly 21 fouls per game, which translates to a 39.4 percent free throw rate — No. 274 in the country. The Cougars are putting their opponents on the line often, which could be a factor with WSU shooting 74 percent as a team.

Turnovers: It’s not a crippling weakness, but turnovers have been somewhat of a problem for the offense. Houston is turning it over on 18.8 percent of possessions, which ranks No. 160 in the country. That comes out to about 13 turnovers per game. WSU’s defense has struggled forcing turnovers this season, so this is another opportunity to jumpstart its defense.

Pick and roll defense: Per Synergy, Houston ranks in the 29th percentile and rates as “Below Average” on its defense when the ball handler finishes the play on pick-and-rolls. This is good news for WSU, which ranks in the 90th percentile on those pick-and-roll plays, and Landry Shamet and Conner Frankamp, who run those plays a combined 68 percent of the time at an extremely efficient level for WSU.

3 Players to Watch

6-1 senior Rob Gray (No. 32)

Gray is the returning leading scorer from the AAC last season and is averaging 19 points this season on 47 percent shooting. He’s also making 38 percent of his three-pointers and 85 percent of his foul shots. A lot of possessions are going to end with Gray, who draws a lot of fouls and attention from the defense. Gray ranks in the 85th percentile of efficiency, per Synergy, and does most of his damage in the pick and roll and in transition. He’s another player who loves to finish on the right side, so if WSU can make him finish left of the rim then it could limit his efficiency.

6-6 senior Devin Davis (No. 15)

Davis is a perfect representation of Houston: undersized, but tough on the boards. He’s only 6-6, but still pulls down 20 percent of the defensive rebounds when he’s on the cout (No. 216 in the country) and leads Houston with 6.8 rebounds per game. In an age where everyone wants to shoot three-pointers, Davis’ offense mostly comes on long two-pointers. In fact, 76 percent of his shots are between 17 and 20 feet. His favorite spot is on the right side, where he has made 15 of 28 long jumpers this season.

6-8 junior Breaon Brady (No. 24)

Brady had his best game of the season against Temple, leading the Cougars to a 76-73 victory behind 21 points and nine rebounds. But he badly sprained his ankle and will be a game-time decision for tonight’s game against WSU. If he’s unable to go, it’s a huge blow to Houston’s ability to compete on the glass with WSU. While he’s only averaging 5.4 rebounds, Brady grabs a team-high 15 percent of offensive rebounds and a team-high 27 percent of defensive rebounds when he’s on the floor. He is a non-threat outside of the paint and has not attempted a shot further away than five feet this entire season. But he’ll be a load to keep off the glass and would give Houston a 6-8 frame to put on Shaquille Morris or Darral Willis.

Shocker to Watch

I really like this matchup for WSU’s shooters, meaning Landry Shamet, Conner Frankamp, and Austin Reaves should combine for somewhere between six and 10 three-pointers tonight. But who does WSU need even more than them? Shaquille Morris. Since an electric start to the season, Morris has averaged 9.3 points and 4.2 rebounds in the last nine games. That’s included five games in single-digit scoring and his rebounding numbers have been sporadic at best. The good news is Morris is blocking shots at a career-best rate, swatting away 10.4 percent of shots while he’s on the court (the 32nd-best rate in the country). Given Houston already has a size disadvantage and one of its only big bodies, Breaon Brady, might miss the game, this is a matchup tailor-made for Morris to return to his destructive ways inside for the Shockers. I think Morris will score close to 20 points this game, add around eight rebounds, and wipe out a handful of shots, which would significantly boost WSU’s odds of winning if he returns to that level.

Taylor’s Prediction

Houston is one of the best offensive teams Wichita State will face this season. The Shockers have had their struggles on the defensive end, but made strides last week with their road victory at Connecticut. But that was also against a below-average offensive team in UConn. Is WSU’s defense back to operating at an elite level?

The good news is WSU doesn’t need it to because its offense has steadily been above-average all season. Houston hasn’t played as difficult of a schedule as WSU and the Cougars haven’t had to defend a team that can shoot like the Shockers.

This is a clash of two of the best rebounding teams in the country, but for once WSU will have the height advantage and even more of an advantage if Houston big man Breaon Brady misses the game.

I think WSU will control the boards, make enough three-pointers, and play just good enough defense to get the victory tonight.

Wichita State 81, Houston 71

This story was originally published January 4, 2018 at 3:42 PM with the headline "WSU scout: This Shocker has a chance to excel against Houston."