Quick scout: Can WSU’s defense finally force turnovers vs. Arkansas State?

Arkansas State (4-7) at No. 11 Wichita State (8-2)

When: 7 p.m. Tuesday

Where: Koch Arena (10,506), Wichita, Kan.

TV: Cox HD 2022

Series: Tied at 1-1

Streaming: Watch ESPN

Radio: 103.7-FM and GoShockers.com

Live stats: GoShockers.com

Game notes: Wichita State | Arkansas State

KenPom Says

WSU ranking: No. 8

ASU ranking: No. 258

Score prediction: Wichita State 91, Arkansas State 64

WSU’s winning odds: 99%

Projected lineups

Coach: Mike Balado, first season, 4-7

Coach: Gregg Marshall, 11th season, 269-92

ASU season-to-date

Arkansas State was picked to finish seventh in the 12-team Sun Belt Conference and return three starters from a 20-win team last season. Balado is a former Rick Pitino assistant at Louisville and has transferred the same frenzied defensive approach to ASU. The Red Wolves have lost to four times to opponents rated above 250 in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings in South Florida (279), Cleveland State (286), Tennessee Martin (272), and Nebraska Omaha (278).

3 Strengths

Three-point defense: Opponents aren’t taking — or making — a lot of three-pointers against the Red Wolves. Only 29 percent of opponent’s shots have been three-pointers, which is the 15th-lowest rate in the country and translates to just over 16 three-pointers per game. On those limited attempts, opponents are shooting just 28.5 percent from beyond the arc — the 12th-best three-point defense in the nation. WSU is one of the nation’s better shooting teams, as it is shooting better than 38 percent from three and taking nearly 24 per game.

Guard play: Deven Simms (16.8) and Ty Cockfield (14.9) average more than 31 points combined from the backcourt. The ASU offense is at its best when one of those two guards are shooting the ball, as Simms and Cockfield have combined to score 0.99 points per possession. They’re both above-average on making two-pointers, as Simms is shooting 61 percent and Cockfield is shooting 56 percent. WSU has struggled against star guards this season.

Stealing: ASU doesn’t force a lot of turnovers, but it does come through with a lot of steals. The Red Wolves are averaging close to seven steals per game and their steal percentage of 9.6 ranks No. 108 in the country. Rashad Lindsey (15 steals) and Tristin Walley (14 steals) average more than one per game and rank in top 500 nationally in steal percentage. WSU’s offense is near the national average in committing turnovers that are steals.

3 Weaknesses

Turnovers: ASU is among the worst in the country and taking care of the basketball, as it is committing turnovers on 22 percent of its possessions — 306th in the country. That translates to 16 turnovers per game. But can WSU make the Red Wolves pay? The Shockers are among the worst in the country at forcing turnovers, ranking 328th in the country in turnover percentage (just under 16 percent) and 333rd in steal percentage (six percent) on defense.

Fouling: ASU is fouling more than 20 times per game, which has led to opponents shooting nearly 22 free throws per game. That free throw rate puts ASU’s defense 271st in the country, while opponents have made the Red Wolves pay by making free throws at a nearly 77-percent clip. WSU is averaging just under 22 free throws per game and is shooting 76 percent as a team.

Two-point defense: Opponents are shooting 56 percent on two-pointers against ASU, the 319th mark in the country. The Red Wolves’ biggest problem has been stopping opponents from getting to the rim, where they’re taking nearly 32 shots per game and shooting 60 percent at the rim. WSU is averaging 28 shots per game near the rim and is shooting 62 percent on those attempts.

3 Players to Watch

6-4 guard Deven Simms (No. 23)

Strengths: Aggressive attacking the basket and is shooting 61 percent on two-point shots. The team’s leading rebounder, despite being 6-4. He averages 6.2 rebounds and pulls down nearly 20 percent of the defensive rebounds when he’s on the floor — a top-300 mark in the country. He draws nearly six fouls per 40 minutes, a top-200 mark in the country, and he shoots 75 percent at the line.

Weaknesses: Not a three-pointer shooter, as long as he’s not shooting from the left corner where he is making 60 percent of his shots. He’s shooting just 30 percent everywhere else along the three-point line. Simms is averaging more than two turnovers per game. Struggles the most in transition, where he is turning the ball over nearly a quarter of the time.

5-11 guard Ty Cockfield (No. 0)

Strengths: Extremely good at finishing near the rim off the pick and roll, as he is shooting 62 percent on shots closer than five feet from the basket. Rarely takes mid-range shots, as he is taking either a three-pointer or a shot near the rim. Cockfield is making 1.4 three-pointers per game and is shooting nearly 38 percent from the beyond the arc. One of the team’s top on-ball defenders, as he is rated “Very Good” by Synergy’s standards.

Weaknesses: Only shooting 33 percent on two-pointers outside of five feet from the rim. Not a threat to pull-up for a mid-range jumper. Also struggles to make free throws once he gets to the line, as he is shooting less than 64 percent. Also averages more than two turnovers per game.

6-7 forward Tristin Walley (No. 4)

Strengths: The team’s best rebounder on a per-minute basis, as he averages 5.3 rebounds per game and grabs 8.1 percent of offensive rebounds and 19.2 percent of defensive rebounds (both top-500 marks nationally) when he’s on the court. Undersized, but is the team’s leading shot blocker with more than one per game and blocking 3.5 percent of shots (No. 348 in the country).

Weaknesses: Has tried to be a stretch-forward, but is only shooting 33 percent from beyond the arc. Not effective inside either, as he is shooting just 40 percent near the rim this season. That’s led to 36 percent field goal shooting, limiting Walley’s effectiveness on offense.

Taylor’s Prediction

Wichita State’s defense has taken a beating in the days since the Oklahoma loss. This is a chance for the Shockers to build some confidence against a team that commits a lot of turnovers, something WSU’s defense needs to be doing more of going forward.

ASU doesn’t take a ton of three-pointers and doesn’t make a ton, which will be a welcomed change for a WSU opponent. This is a typical buy game: an overmatched opponent coming to Koch Arena following a difficult game for WSU to give the home team a breather. The Shockers shouldn’t have much of a problem putting this game away before halftime.

I’ll be looking forward to seeing if WSU’s defense can create turnovers and a crisp performance in the first half. I’m sure Gregg Marshall and Co. are hoping the majority of the final 20 minutes can be reserved for players still looking to establish themselves — Samajae Haynes-Jones, CJ Keyser, and Asbjorn Midtgaard come to mind. And of course, to avoid an injury in a game like this.

Wichita State 101, Arkansas State 72

Shocker Player to Watch

Darral Willis has scored double-digits in six straight games and is coming off a season-high 20 points against Oklahoma, where Willis also collected 12 rebounds for his third double-double of the season. Arkansas State doesn’t have the size down low to guard WSU’s bigs and I expect the Shockers to capitalize on their size advantage in the post. Willis feasts on overmatched opponents who aren’t prepared to deal with that tight spin move he loves to do going left and also stepping out and popping shots from the perimeter. But Willis is at his best when he’s near the basket, sticking put-backs in and going left in the post. If he gets enough minutes, I think Willis comes through with another double-double.

This story was originally published December 19, 2017 at 3:23 PM with the headline "Quick scout: Can WSU’s defense finally force turnovers vs. Arkansas State?."