Quick scout: How Wichita State can slow down OU’s Trae Young

Oklahoma (7-1) at No. 3 Wichita State (8-1)

When: 3 p.m. Saturday

Where: Intrust Bank Arena (15,004), Wichita, Kan.

TV: ESPN2 (Rich Hollenberg and Tom Crean)

Series: Oklahoma leads 4-2

Streaming: Watch ESPN

Radio: 103.7-FM and GoShockers.com

Live stats: GoShockers.com

Game notes: Wichita State | Oklahoma

KenPom Says

WSU ranking: No. 4

OU ranking: No. 27

Score prediction: Wichita State 87, Oklahoma 78

WSU’s winning odds: 81%

Vegas line: WSU -7.5

Projected lineups

Coach: Lon Kruger, seventh season, 129-78

Coach: Gregg Marshall, 11th season, 269-91

OU season-to-date

Oklahoma is on the cusp of being ranked in the top-25 in the AP poll thanks to a 7-1 start, including solid victories over Oregon and USC. The Sooners’ lone loss of the season comes in a 92-83 defeat to Arkansas. ESPN’s BPI rates OU’s strength of schedule at No. 162 currently with a RPI of 95. OU will have one last challenge before Big 12 season when it hosts Northwestern next Friday.

3 Strengths

Scoring in transition: OU ranks in the 92nd percentile in Division I at scoring in transition, per Synergy Sports, and the Sooners rank eighth in the country with 25 percent of their total possessions ending in transition. This makes OU deadly on live-ball turnovers and long rebounds that can jumpstart its break. Even off of made baskets, OU has pushed the ball up the court and attacked quickly. According to Ken Pomeroy’s numbers, OU is playing at the fifth-fastest tempo in the country with its average possession lasting under 14 seconds.

Two-point shooting: Much is made of OU’s affinity for taking quick shots and a lot beyond the arc (42 percent of its shots are three-pointers). But the Sooners are getting to the rim — a lot — and shooting at a high percentage. According to Synergy, 84 percent of OU’s two-point shots are coming within five feet of the basket. On those attempts, OU is making more 62 percent of its shots. So when OU is chucking threes, it’s been able to get to the rim in a hurry. OU is shooting 59.4 percent on all of its two-pointers, which ranks No. 11 in the country per KenPom.

Two-point defense: OU is one of the top defenses in the country in two-point percentage defense. Opponents are shooting under 43 percent on two-pointers, which ranks No. 28 in the country per KenPom. Why is that? Because opponents are shooting under 46 percent within five feet of the basket, as OU has blocked 40 shots around the rim already this season. That’s a credit to Khadeem Lattin, Jamuni McNeace, and Brady Manek, who are all averaging at least one block per game this season with Lattin blocking 2.1 per game. This will be a strength vs. strength matchup, as WSU’s offense is making 56.5 percent of its two-pointers for the 27th best mark int he country.

3 Weaknesses

Three-point defense: OU is giving up a ton of threes (nearly 41 percent of opponent shots have been beyond the arc) and giving them up at a very high percentage (opponents are shooting 38.6 percent). That three-point percentage defense puts OU at No. 290 in the country. According to Synergy’s shot charts, OU’s defense is giving up more than four corner three-pointers per game (shots opponents are hitting at a 42 percent clip). WSU should be able to exploit this, as the Shockers have made nearly 40 percent of their threes this season. WSU has made at least 10 three-pointers in the four games since Maui and is shooting 44 percent during that span.

Halfcourt defense: When teams have forced OU to guard for longer than 15 seconds, they have found success. Per Synergy, OU ranks in the 48th percentile in halfcourt defense and is allowing 0.86 points per possession. The Sooners aren’t particularly effective in any part of their defense. They’re allowing opponents to have a 49 percent effective field goal percentage. They’re turning opponents over on less than 19 percent of possessions. And teams are grabbing nearly 29 percent of their own misses against OU. This is an ideal matchup for WSU in the halfcourt, as the Shockers’ 1.02 PPP in the halfcourt this season ranks them in the 96th percentile on offense.

Rebounding: It doesn’t matter if it’s on offense or defense, OU does not collect rebounds at a high rate. Up against the No. 1 rebounding team in college basketball, that could be a problem for the Sooners. OU is tracking down a little less than 29 percent of its own misses, which is right about at the national average. On defense, opponents are grabbing a little less than 29 percent of their own misses — once again right in the middle. Meanwhile, WSU ranks 23rd in offensive rebounding percentage (36.4) and third in limiting offensive rebounds on defense (20.5). Khadeem Lattin is really the only rebounding threat on OU, so if WSU can either get him in foul trouble or make sure to check him out then the Sooners won’t be a threat to win the rebounding battle.

How to defend Trae Young

1. Guarding in transition

OU is one of the most dangerous teams in college basketball in transition and it’s because of Young, who is basically a one-man fast break. It’s no secret that defenses are at their most vulnerable scrambling back in transition before they can set their defense and Young capitalizes on this. There are so many clips of him taking an outlet pass, zooming up the court before the rim protectors can get back and torturing backpedaling defenders with jukes and cuts and finishing at the rim.

On his own, Young is scoring at 1.21 PPP in transition opportunities and shooting 57 percent on those possessions. Watch the clips below and you can see he is a one-man wrecking crew on the break.

But don’t think Young is putting his head down and only looking for his own points. He isn’t quite at Lonzo Ball’s level of the look-ahead outlet pass for an easy bucket, but he’s close. If the defenders have their heads turned and he makes eye contact with a streaking target, Young will not hesitate to loft a 70-foot pass over the top of the defense.

Defenses not only have to account for Young in transition, but they have to find Christian James in transition as well and hug him on the perimeter. There are so many times on tape where Young starts running, the entire defense is so focused on him that they collapse on his dribble penetration and Young kicks out to a wide open James spotting up on the three-point line. James is scoring at 1.42 PPP in transition and it’s no secret why: 14 of his 16 baskets in transition this season have been assisted by Young.

How to slow it down: WSU won’t have time to set up its defense, so the closest defender is going to have to get in front of Young before he crosses halfcourt. But it can’t just be all about Young, either. WSU will have to hug James on the perimeter and not be tempted to help off to take a swipe at Young’s dribble penetration. It’s just a reality OU will score some in transition — a team that runs that much and has a playmaker like Young is bound to — but WSU’s defense can claim a victory here if it keeps Young from running consistently and creating havoc.

2. Guarding the deep three

When I say deep, I’m not talking deep as in a NBA three-pointer. No, Young is shooting even a couple feet beyond the three-point line this season — and making a good amount of them. Check out the video below to see his insane range.

Now you can see why people are comparing him to Steph Curry.

It’s tempting as a defense to allow Young to shoot 30-footers. After all, you would think the odds are he’s not going to make shots that far away. But Young has proven he can drain them and it’s obvious he gains confidence after knocking them down.

Young has already hit 15 three-pointers this season from at least a step behind the three-point line. Maybe you give that shot up to other players, but not Young. He’s got that type of range.

How to slow it down: WSU’s defense is going to have to pick him up from 30 feet out. That means WSU’s bigs can’t be slow-footed in getting out on screens if they’re going to hedge. If they take their time to show, then Young will take one dribble around a screen and pull from wherever he is. Also the primary defender can’t wait until Young approaches the three-point line to start guarding him. Zach Brown is going to have to pick Young up 30 feet away from the basket and not let him dribble into those deep three-pointers he loves. It’s going to take tremendous commitment on WSU’s part to pull it off, but if all five defenders are locked in and are always aware of Young then I think it’s possible. But make no mistake, Young is likely going to make at least one ridiculous shot where WSU does everything right — the Shockers can live with that, as long as they make him make difficult plays every single time.

3. Guarding the pick and roll

The good news is that OU doesn’t usually set a screen for Young with somebody that can pop out and burn them like Mike Daum did with South Dakota State. But the bad news is that OU is deadly in its own way in the traditional pick and roll.

Watch the clip below and watch how Young manipulates the help defender. He takes the screen, drags the big along with him on the perimeter allowing the screener a free path to the rim. Young is so good at reading the help defender responsible for the roller and flicking a perfectly-timed pass to the roller as soon as the help defender feels like they have to retreat back to the corner.

Now you’re starting to understand why Young is averaging close to 9 assists per game. He has unreal vision and can slice through defenses with no-look, bullet passes that sometimes even take his teammates by surprise.

How to slow it down: It’s going to take tremendous help defense. Zach Brown is going to be doing the grunt work. He’s going to try to bump Young and be physical with him. His job is to make life difficult on Young, but in reality he will only have one part in WSU’s defense on Young. It’s going to take great defense from WSU’s bigs and how they cover the ball screens. I suspect they’re going to hard hedge and shoot up on screens and prevent Young from turning the corner. The vulnerability of this defense is that it leaves the roller open briefly. So the third and final part of WSU’s defense will rely on its help defenders. OU is going to have someone spotted up in the corner and that defender is going to have to peal off and have two feet in the lane to prevent the pass to the roller. Of course, that leaves a shooter in the corner for Young to whip the ball to. But if WSU is able to scramble, communicate, and rotate then it is possible to keep OU from taking the shots it wants to.

Young doesn’t turn it over a ton, but the majority of his turnovers in the halfcourt come against teams who rotate well on their pick-and-roll coverage. If WSU can come through with locked-in help defense, then it’s going to force a turnover or two on Young trying to fit in an ambitious pass into a tight window. He’s susceptible to those turnovers, as you can see in the clips below, and that’s exactly what WSU will be looking to do.

I would actually like to see WSU aggressively trap ball screens when OU sends one Young’s way. I think WSU has the personnel to pull the scrambling off and it’s a great way to get the ball out of Youngs hands and prevent A) him shooting and B) him making the assist pass. Yes, if he’s able to get out of it then OU will be playing 4 on 3. But I think WSU could speed OU up and into turnovers employing this strategy and could live with another player on OU being the playmaker. I haven’t see any team try to trap ball screens against him yet, so it would be a change-up and give him a look he hasn’t seen yet. Just a thought.

Taylor’s Prediction

This is a dangerous game for Wichita State.

Fans are already a little leery after Oklahoma State torched the nets last December at Intrust Bank Arena and OU is a team certainly capable of replicating a shooting performance like that on Saturday. And it’s always a little scary going up against a superstar like Young who is capable of elevating a team to another level.

But WSU has a star of its own in Landry Shamet, who is playing at an unreal level right now. His shooting percentages are among the best in college basketball and he’s simply making the correct basketball play time and time again. That’s an extremely valuable trait for a player who touches the ball more than anyone.

WSU has the advantage in nearly aspect of this game, but OU is dangerous because of how potent it is in transition. If WSU commits 10 or more live-ball turnovers, then it’s going to be in trouble because those are likely leading to OU points.

It will be a true contrast of offensive styles. OU wants to push the ball, set an early ball screen, then take the first look that presents itself. More times than not, that’s in less than 14 seconds.

But WSU can’t get caught up in that game. The Shockers can’t let OU speed them up just because the Sooners are taking quick shots. If WSU is able to play at its pace, run through its sets, and make OU play defense for longer than 20 seconds, then the Shockers are going to find the type of shots they’re looking for.

Another underrated part of slowing down OU in transition will be the quality of shots WSU takes. If WSU hunts high-percentage looks and makes most of them, then that’s going to slow OU down.

OU struggles playing defense in the halfcourt. It gives up a ton of threes and allows opponents to make them at a high rate. It isn’t particularly a good rebounding team. It doesn’t force a lot of turnovers. That should give WSU an advantage.

WSU can’t worry if Young starts heating up and goes off for 30 or more points. He’s going to score his points. As long as WSU is making things difficult on him, then it can live with the results. I don’t think WSU necessarily has to shut Young down to win. I think if WSU makes Young work and limits the supporting cast, then it will be just fine.

That’s how I see this game playing out. I think Young is going to light it up in the national spotlight, but I think WSU is going to make it one of his least efficient outings. I say Young gets to at least 30 points, but shoots less than 43 percent.

Shamet doesn’t score as much, but makes just as many winning basketball plays and leads WSU to a marquee victory. WSU makes at least 10 three-pointers for a fifth straight game with Conner Frankamp leading the way with at least three.

Wichita State 91, Oklahoma 80

Shocker Player to Watch

OU is one of the worst defenses in the country defending the three-point line, so I think we can expect big games from Landry Shamet and Conner Frankamp. I’m going with Frankamp for my pick of the game because I just have a feeling he’s going to get loose on the perimeter and make OU’s defense pay. Opponents are taking 41 percent of their shots against OU from beyond the arc and shooting nearly 39 percent. Looking at the Synergy shot chart, OU’s defense is giving up nearly two corner three-pointers per game and I think Frankamp will be camping out for at least two of those on Saturday. You can probably add another three on WSU’s favorite BLOB play, too. I think Shamet leads WSU in scoring, but Frankamp comes through with some timely shots to help the Shockers claim their third victory over a Big 12 team this season.

This story was originally published December 16, 2017 at 1:19 AM with the headline "Quick scout: How Wichita State can slow down OU’s Trae Young."