Quick scout: Limiting turnovers will be key for WSU at Oklahoma State

No. 6 Wichita State (7-1) at Oklahoma State (7-1)

When: 3 p.m. Saturday

Where: Gallagher-Iba Arena (13,611), Stillwater, Okla.

TV: ESPN 2 (Mark Neely, Mark Adams)

Series: Oklahoma State leads 30-8 (15-2 in GIA)

Streaming: Watch ESPN

Radio: 103.7-FM and GoShockers.com

Live stats: GoShockers.com

Game notes: Wichita State | Oklahoma State

KenPom Says

WSU ranking: No. 6

OSU ranking: No. 50

Score prediction: Wichita State 78, Oklahoma State 73

WSU’s winning odds: 66%

Projected lineups

Coach: Gregg Marshall, 11th season

Coach: Mike Boynton, first season

OSU season-to-date

The Cowboys are off to a 7-1 start, although they don’t own a win over a top-150 KenPom team. Their best win is against Pittsburgh, which at the time was 1-4. The lone loss came against Texas A&M, a 72-55 thumping against KenPom’s No. 7 overall team. It’s been a creampuff schedule to date, but that will change with the next three games against Wichita State, Florida State, and Tulsa leading into Big 12 play.

3 Strengths

Forcing turnovers: Oklahoma State is forcing more than 16 turnovers per game, which comes out to about 23 percent of possessions for opponents. That’s the 38th highest turnover rate forced in the country. The Cowboys are averaging 18.3 points per game from turnovers. WSU has generally been solid handling the ball, committing 12.6 turnovers per game and on 17 percent of its possessions.

Man-to-man halfcourt defense: Oklahoma State owns the 47th most efficient defense, according to KenPom’s numbers. The Cowboys are doing well contesting shots (No. 27 in country in defensive effective field-goal percentage at 44.2), forcing turnovers (addressed above), and keeping opponents from rebounding their misses. That’s been a winning formula thus far, but it should also be noted that those stats have been accumulated against six teams ranked No. 250 or higher in KenPom. OSU’s man defense in the halfcourt ranks in the 98th percentile, per Synergy, while WSU’s man offense is No. 2 in the country, per Synergy.

Sharing the ball: Oklahoma State isn’t turning the ball over much and it’s assisting on a high number of its field goals, which indicates the Cowboys are moving the ball well on offense. OSU is assisting on nearly 63 percent of its made field goals, the 20th-highest rate in the country. The Cowboys are also limiting their turnovers to just 17 percent of possessions, which ranks in the top 20 percent in college basketball. WSU is statistically one of the worst defenses at forcing turnover, although it is ranked No. 42 in the country at limiting assisted field goals.

3 Weaknesses

Not getting to the line: The Cowboys are one of the best free-throw shooting teams in college basketball, ranking 20th in the country by shooting 78.5 percent as a team. The problem is getting there. OSU’s free throw rate is among the bottom 100 teams in Division I, as it is attempting 18.6 free throws per game. WSU has been relatively good at keeping opponents off the line this season.

Three-point shooting: Oklahoma State is still going to hoist a lot of shots from beyond the arc, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to go in. The Cowboys are attempting 27 threes per game, which comes out to about 43 percent of their shots, and they are only shooting 34 percent as a team. That’s not horrendous, but it’s slightly below average in Division I. WSU owns a top-100 three-point defense, as opponents are making just 32 percent against the Shockers this season.

Two-point defense: The numbers don’t show it yet, but that’s probably due to the schedule. Texas A&M shot nearly 58 percent on two-pointers in OSU’s lone loss and the Cowboys were one of the worst teams in college basketball last season in two-point defense. Although opponents are only shooting 44.9 percent, which is 54th in the country, I suspect that number will rise once they start playing top-level competition like WSU. Opponents are already finding 56 percent of their production on twos and with WSU shooting 57 percent on twos this season, a top-25 mark, I think this will be an area WSU can win on Saturday.

3 Players to Watch

6-6 forward Jeffrey Carroll (No. 30)

Strengths: His athleticism and hops make him dynamite in transition or in the halfcourt when he can build steam going to the basket. Even though he doesn’t start, still leads the team in rebounding with 6.4 per game and is grabbing better than 31 percent of his team’s rebounds when he’s on the cout. Uses his agression to his advantage to get to the line, where he is a 78 percent foul shooter. When he’s in the game, shots are going up — he’s taking shots more than a third of the time he’s in the game.

Weaknesses: Missed the first three games of the season and isn’t playing the minutes he did last season. Shooting percentages are way down, as his two-point shooting has dipped from 59 percent to 51 percent and his three-point numbers are down from 44 to just 23 percent. The talent is there after he averaged 17.5 points last season, but he’s just not shooting the ball like he did last season (yet). Likely to draw Zach Brown when he’s in the game.

6-3 guard Kendall Smith (No. 1)

Strengths: Leads with the team with 39. assists per game and also adds a scoring punch with his 10.8 scoring average. Hands out assists on 28 percent of his possessions, a very high rate. He’s an 81 percent foul shooter. Rated as an “excellent” on-ball defender, per Synergy, as he has done well defending in pick-and-roll and isolation situations.

Weaknesses: Aggressive going toward the basket, but has not been efficient inside the arc. He leads the team in two-point shot attempts at nearly seven per game, even though he’s shooting less than 39 percent. He has been decent in transition, but every aspect in the halfcourt Synergy labels him as “below average.”

6-9 forward Mitchell Solomon (No. 41)

Strengths: Has made his last 15 shots from the floor and hasn’t missed a shot since Nov. 21. An above-average rebounder who is leading the team in offensive rebounds with 21 total (or about 13 percent of his possessions). Only takes shots close to the basket and he’s been incredibly accurate so far, making 24 of 30 shots from inside the arc. He is the team’s top post defender and will likely guard Shaquille Morris, who he helped hold to four points in last year’s game.

Weaknesses: He’s starting to shoot more from the outside, but the experiment isn’t going well so far. He’s made just 1 of 11 shots from beyond the arc this season and is a career 14 percent shooter from three. Has struggled with foul trouble in the past, although he has improved his numbers so far this season. Not a threat from the perimeter, so WSU’s bigs can likely slack off and help clog up driving lanes.

Taylor’s Prediction

Oklahoma State absolutely shredded WSU last December at Intrust Bank Arena in a 93-76 victory, as the Cowboys pumped out 1.31 points per possession — the most a Gregg Marshall had given up since Creighton in 2013.

It was an embarrassing performance and proved to be just a blip on the radar, as WSU recovered to win 31 games and finished as the 13th best defense in KenPom’s rankings. While OSU graduated three starters, WSU has everyone (minus Markis McDuffie for the moment) back and revenge will certainly be on its mind.

This is a game that will come down to how many turnovers OSU can force out of Wichita State. Ball handling will be crucial for the Shockers because they will have the advantage in every other aspect of the game.

OSU has played mostly man this season and are a very good man team. But I don’t think you can play strictly man against WSU’s sets and be successful, so I would expect Mike Boynton to throw some zone at the Shockers to at least give them another look.

Landry Shamet and Conner Frankamp rarely commit turnovers, so if WSU’s other players can limit their turnovers then the Shockers will fair well when OSU inevitably tries to crank up its pressure. The Cowboys have feasted this season when they can get in transition off turnovers, so if a team can limit those opportunities then it’s going to limit OSU’s offensive ceiling. In the halfcourt, they are just not making enough outside shots at this point to be considered dangerous.

There’s a reason why WSU has won its last seven road games, the second-longest active streak in the country, and owns the most road wins since the 2013-14 season. The Shockers know what wins on the road (defense and rebounding) and it doesn’t appear they will be up against much of a home-court advantage at Oklahoma State.

Now it is true WSU hasn’t won in Gallagher-Iba Arena since 1957 and hasn’t scored more than 67 points in Stillwater. It’s also true the Cowboys have won four the last five meetings and have won 15 straight non-conference games at home.

But I think it’s time for all of those things to come to an end, as I think WSU will win the rebounding battle for the 14th straight game and the Shockers will pump out better than 1.20 PPP en route to another Big 12 road victory.

Wichita State 88, Oklahoma State 75

Shocker Player to Watch

Darral Willis played his best game of the season last year against Oklahoma State, scoring 24 points (shooting 17 free throws!) and grabbing 13 rebounds. I would expect him to have another nice game on Saturday. I also think Landry Shamet is in store for a big game, as I think he’ll finish with more than 30 points off his made baskets and assists. But for my official pick, I’m going with Shaquille Morris as the player to watch in Saturday’s game. Last season Morris was nearly invisible, playing just 16 minutes and contributing just four points and a single rebound. The Edmond native will have a little motivation playing against the Cowboys and more importantly, I think there was a fire lit underneath him at halftime of the last game. He knows how important he is to this team’s success and if Shaq is playing at a high level, then the Shockers are a very, very difficult team to beat. I think Morris will score 20 points for the third time this season and add a nice chunk of rebounds and a block or two for a big road win.

This story was originally published December 8, 2017 at 6:19 PM with the headline "Quick scout: Limiting turnovers will be key for WSU at Oklahoma State."