Quick scout: Savannah State offers a pace for this Shocker to break out

Savannah State (2-5) at No. 8 Wichita State (4-1)

When: 7:05 p.m. Tuesday

Where: Koch Arena (tickets available)

TV: Cox HD 2122 in Wichita, Spectrum Sports in Kansas City

Streaming: Watch ESPN

Radio: 103.7-FM and GoShockers.com

Live stats: GoShockers.com

Game notes: Savannah State | Wichita State

KenPom Says

WSU ranking: No. 4

SSU ranking: No. 330

Score prediction: Wichita State 103, Savannah State 66

WSU’s winning odds: 99.9%

Projected lineups

Coach: Horace Broadnax, 13th season

Coach: Gregg Marshall, 11th season

3 Strengths

▪ 12 seconds or less: The average offensive possession for Savannah State lasts less than 12 seconds, according to KenPom’s data. That’s led to Savannah State games averaging nearly 86 possessions per game, the third-most in college basketball this season. KenPom’s Adjusted Tempo score has Savannah State playing at the second-fastest pace in the country this season. Don’t expect much time to elapse from the time Savannah State crosses halfcourt to the time it hoists up a shot.

▪ Attack, attack, attack: Savannah State is an above-average team at drawing fouls due to their aggressive playing style. The Tigers average more than 26 free throw attempts per game, a rate that places them in the top-third of the country. Savannah State shoots 68.6 percent from the free-throw line as a team.

▪ Three-point barrage coming: Only two teams in college basketball love taking three-pointers more than Savannah State (Davidson and Belmont, if you’re curious). More than half — 54 percent to be exact — of Savannah State’s shots this season have been beyond the arc and the team is taking on average nearly 38 per game. But that doesn’t mean they’re making them, as the Tigers and their 29-percent accuracy make them one of the worst distance-shooting teams in the country this season.

3 Weakness

▪ Keeping teams off the glass: The Tigers play such an aggressive style that it often leaves their defense vulnerable if they don’t force a turnover. That has translated to opponents grabbing 41 percent of their own misses, which ranks as the fourth-worst mark in the country. WSU enters as the 20th-best offensive rebounding team in the country.

▪ Man offense: Savannah State ranks No. 307 in KenPom’s most efficient offenses this season, but it’s even worse when teams man up. According to Synergy data, Savannah State has scored just 0.79 points per possession in 340 possessions against man defense this season.

▪ Presenting resistance on defense: There’s no way around it: Savannah State is one of the worst defensive teams in the country. The Tigers are allowing almost 95 points per game and rank in the bottom-20 in the nation in KenPom’s efficiency ratings. Opponents are averaging a 58.2 effective field goal percentage and shooting close to 59 percent on two-point shots.

3 Players to Watch

6-5 guard Dexter McClanahan (No. 22)

Strengths: The most likely to catch fire if it’s going to happen against WSU. He’s averaging 16 points in 26 minutes, which translates to a 24.5 per 40 average. He’s at his best when he’s using his length and attacking in transition, where he’s scoring at a better than 1.1 PPP clip. He is drawing nearly five fouls per game on opponents, which has led to an average of free throws per game (both team-highs).

Weaknesses: Not an efficient scorer this season, as he has produced just 0.85 points per possessions on nearly 18 percent of Savannah State’s possessions. He’s shooting just 28 percent on his spot-up opportunities as well. On defense, opponents have feasted on him and are scoring at a clip of 1.15 PPP when he’s in front of them.

6-1 guard Zach Sellers (No. 3)

Strengths: Proficient at setting others up, as he assists on 25 percent of made baskets when he’s on the floor and has 22 assists on the season. Rates out as average, but is by far the team’s best on-ball defender by Synergy’s metrics. In the rare cases Savannah State takes the time to run a pick-and-roll, the team averages 1.15 PPP when Sellers either shoots it or passes it from the play.

Weaknesses: Not a great offfensive player when he’s having to create offense for himself. Synergy rates him as below average as a spot-up shooter, backed up by his 33 percent accuracy from beyond the arc this season. He’s worse in isolation situations. Unless he’s running a pick-and-roll or attacking in transition, not an effective offensive player.

6-3 guard Austin Dasent (No. 1)

Strengths: Leads the team in Offensive Rating and is the most efficient offensive player on the team, scoring at a 0.97 PPP clip on his 11 percent of the team’s possessions. He’s a shooter that will have to be accounted for at all times. Tied for the team lead at 11 threes on the year and is shooting at 39-percent success rate. Synergy rates him in 94th percentile in college basketball as a spot-up shooter, as Dasent is shooting 60 percent and scoring at a 1.45 PPP clip.

Weaknesses: Doesn’t offer much in transition or much else than bombing away from the outside on the offensive end. Loses track of his mark on the perimeter often, which has led to opponents scoring at a 1.11 PPP clip against him this season. Turns the ball on 19 percent of his possessions, which equates to nearly two per game.

Taylor’s Prediction

We’ve already seen what Wichita State can do in a high-tempo game against an overmatched opponent, as Wichita State throttled UMKC for 109 points in 80 possessions in its season-opening win three weeks ago. We may seen an even faster pace and worse defense on Tuesday against Savannah State, as I think this one is going to finish with 82 possessions. If you take an average WSU offensive performance (1.17 PPP), then you’re looking at about a floor of 95 points in this game.

Savannah State is going to take a lot of quick shots, jack a lot of threes, and try to create a frenetic pace against the Shockers. Wichita State should have the ball handlers and the experience to eviscerate this defense, as I suspect this game will build some offensive confidence and bury the Notre Dame loss heading into Saturday’s showdown in Waco.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wichita State hang 60 points by halftime, as this one will be a rout similar to the 52-point win over UMKC. AAC foe Cincinnati dispatched Savannah State 107-77 in its season-opener and I think we’ll see around the same score on Tuesday.

Wichita State 105, Savannah State 62

Shocker Player of the Game

Shaquille Morris and Darral Willis are likely going to have their way inside against a Savannah State team short on size, but we’ve already seen them beat up on lesser opponents this season. Those are the easy picks, so that’s why I’ll go with junior-college transfer Samajae Haynes-Jones for the breakout performance. We haven’t seen Haynes-Jones in transition much this season, but that should change on Tuesday. This is the tempo Haynes-Jones thrived during his years in the City League with his quickness and handles. The East High grad scored 11 points and dished out five assists against UMKC; I think he’ll set a career-high in either one or both of those categories on Tuesday.

This story was originally published November 28, 2017 at 1:36 AM with the headline "Quick scout: Savannah State offers a pace for this Shocker to break out."