Bob Lutz: There’s not much indicating an advantage for Kansas or Wichita State

An informal poll of my media cronies here indicates what I’ve been thinking for a while now.

There’s no way to confidently pick the winner of Sunday’s Wichita State-Kansas game in the third round of the NCAA Tournament.

KU is so all over the place. But it’s KU.

Wichita State isn’t supposed to beat teams and programs like Kansas, but the Shockers missed that memo.

I found nine media types who are picking the Jayhawks and seven who think WSU will win. I’m not including myself because I can’t pick a winner.

This game looks that close.

How will the injured right knee of Kansas junior Perry Ellis hold up?

Will Ron Baker find his shooting touch after a sub-par game against Indiana?

Are the Jayhawks now the good three-point shooting team we saw in much of December and January?

Will Shocker big men Darius Carter and Shaq Morris avoid the early foul trouble that often plagues them?

Does Brannen Greene make shots?

Does Zach Brown suddenly realize he’s a freshman?

These are some of the questions that make picking a winner Sunday difficult.

In most games, Kansas gets the edge in coaching because Kansas has Bill Self.

In this one, though, it’s close. Wichita State’s Gregg Marshall is masterful in getting his team prepared in short order.

Self called Baker and fellow junior Fred VanVleet the best backcourt tandem in the country. VanVleet looked like the best player in the country during the Shockers’ 81-76 win over Indiana on Friday with a season-high 27 points and some outstanding defense against the Hoosiers’ quick point guard, Yogi Ferrell.

Marshall was just as complimentary toward Ellis, KU point guard Frank Mason and the rest of the Jayhawks.

Kansas has the young players with the highest upside.

Wichita State has the veteran players with the highest basketball aptitude.

Both teams are close to home and have thousands of fans here.

Basketball fans in Omaha don’t particularly like the Shockers or the Jayhawks, so they won’t show up waving banners for either.

Kansas has an edge in size, but it’s negligible.

Several players on both teams have vast tournament experience but quite a few others are just sticking their feet in the water.

Perhaps the stat sheet will show a glaring difference.

Kansas shoots 44.2 percent from the field; Wichita State 44.5 percent.

The Jayhawks are a better three-point shooting team (38.3 percent to 35.8 percent) and also slightly better at the free-throw line.

Wichita State averages 70.1 points to KU’s 71.3. The Shockers hold opponents to 39.8-percent shooting and 56.4 points; KU’s opponents have shot 39.4 percent and scored 64.4 points.

Kansas averages 37.9 rebounds and is plus-3.8 on the boards. Wichita State averages 35.7 rebounds and is plus-4.2.

Let’s keep looking, shall we?

KU has blocked 174 shots to Wichita State’s 128. Kansas has 229 steals; WSU 234.

The Jayhawks have 467 assists but 449 turnovers. Wichita has 454 assists but only 308 turnovers.

It took a while, but turnovers are the biggest discrepancy in these teams. Will it matter Sunday? It could. Wichita State likes to rattle its opponents with different types of pressure.

The Shockers forced Indiana into 13 turnovers Friday and had seven.

Ellis is such a key. He was obviously protecting the knee he injured against West Virginia almost three weeks ago during the Jayhawks’ easy win over New Mexico State on Friday.

Ellis said Saturday that his leg feels good.

“It’s a mental thing,” he said. “Each day I’m getting better and better. The key thing is just getting out there and just being aggressive and attacking.”

Ellis will be playing against his hometown team and competing against former Heights teammate Evan Wessel. Something tells me Ellis is going to have a big game.

That doesn’t mean Kansas will win.

The more I try to find keys for this game, the more unsure I become about its victor.

I had a strong premonition that Wichita State was going to win. But now it has faded and Kansas has gained an advantage.

I would be shocked if it’s not a close game. I don’t think either team will pull away.

In a game like this, with so much at stake, everybody is picking a winner. I know I must and I’ve put it off long enough.

Kansas 68, Wichita State 65.

Or vice versa.

This story was originally published March 21, 2015 at 6:45 PM with the headline "Bob Lutz: There’s not much indicating an advantage for Kansas or Wichita State."