Wichita State shows its experience late in close games

You will hear the theory that guards win NCAA Tournament games many times over the next month. Wichita State and Indiana hope that is the case.

If guards do indeed control the game, that steady hand is never more important than in the final minutes of a close game. Wichita State’s backcourt of Ron Baker, Fred VanVleet and Tekele Cotton are hard to beat in those situations, not because of their spectacular plays or hard-to-quantify crunch-time grittiness or clutch baskets.

They’re hard to beat because of what they don’t do — make mistakes.

“They’ve got a couple of bona fide stars in Baker and VanVleet, and the bottom line is they’ve got a bunch of other guys that really know how to play,” Indiana coach Tom Crean said. “You can see the experience in them because they make so few mistakes, and they don’t turn it over very much, and they’ve got a lot of positive assist‐turnover ratios with their players.”

The calm and control those three exhibit shows up in close games. The seventh-seeded Shockers (28-4) don’t play a lot of tight games, especially in the often overmatched Missouri Valley Conference. When they do, they generally pull away or hold on because they stick to their plan. They played 11 games in which the margin with five minutes remaining was within single digits and ended up 10 or less. WSU won eight of those games with edges in two statistical categories — turnovers and foul shots.

Guards control the pace of the game. Most plays start with the ball in their hands. If they can’t run the offense, well, big men are less effective without the ball in the position. Defenses can make it tough for big men to score with physical play.

“It’s a guards game,” WSU coach Gregg Marshall said. “It’s nice to have a Jahlil Okafor or Karl-Anthony Towns. We don’t have that advantage, so our guards better play well.”

In those 11 games that entered the final five minutes (plus two overtime periods) undecided, the Shockers committed six turnovers to 23 for their opponents.

“Part of that is certainly Fred, but when you look at Evan Wessel, you look at Ron Baker, Tekele Cotton, all those guys and their assist-to-turnover ratios are extremely strong,” said ESPN broadcaster Mark Adams. “Wichita State is very good at not turning the ball over any time in the game, much less in crucial situations.”

Against Utah, WSU trailed 57-48 before rallying to force overtime at 60-all. The Shockers didn’t commit a turnover in the final five minutes of regulation and made 4 of 8 shots. Utah committed three turnovers and missed both its shots before winning 69-68 in the extra period. The Shockers trailed Alabama 51-42 before making six of their final nine shots to win 53-52. The Tide helped with three turnovers in the final five minutes. WSU led Illinois State 53-51 before three Redbirds turnovers helped WSU end the game on a 15-9 run, scoring on six of its final seven possessions, to win 68-62 at Redbird Arena.

Things don’t always go perfectly. Two turnovers and 1-of-7 shooting in the final five minutes doomed WSU in a loss to George Washington. The Shockers missed crucial free throws against Utah. They turned a romp at Bradley into a one-possession game with turnovers and missed shots.

The Shockers can make up for mistakes at the line. In those 11 games, they outscored opponents 53-34 at the line in the final five minutes and attempted 28 more foul shots. While some of that edge comes while protecting leads, VanVleet is often at his best in those moments. He takes the previous 35 minutes worth of knowledge and puts it to use by drawing fouls on big men who get too aggressive guarding screens. He drives into the lane and lets referees do their job, usually to his benefit.

WSU made 39.7 percent of its shots in the final minutes of those 11 games, not much better than their opponents at 35.8. Its edge comes from opportunities.

“Fred is a guy that has learned how to draw contact,” Adams said. “That is a learned technique. When he takes the ball to the rim, he doesn’t just hope for contact. He invites contact and, many times, initiates contact. He gets away with all the time. It’s never called an offensive foul.”

Careful, patient ball-handling isn’t solely a late-game trend for the Shockers. They rank sixth nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.4. Indiana is No. 59 at 1.2.

This story was originally published March 18, 2015 at 9:57 AM with the headline "Wichita State shows its experience late in close games."