MVC basketball: Enjoy February because March might disappoint

The Missouri Valley Conference men’s basketball season is halfway to its grimmest Selection Sunday since 2011.

So let’s save Selection Sunday talk for next month. You know the RPI rankings are not kind to the MVC and its two top-100 teams. You know most NCAA bracket projections see the conference with a double-digit seed for its one bid.

Enjoy this regular-season race, MVC fans. It might be the best part of the season.

It starts with the Illinois State-Wichita State rivalry at the top. At least five teams can target third place.

The MVC Tournament offers the potential for a winner-take-all brawl.

A look at the MVC as it enters its second half of the 18-game round robin schedule.

New team in charge

Illinois State is 9-0 entering Sunday’s game at Evansville. Wichita State is 8-1 and plays at Bradley.

Nobody else is in the picture.

The schedule gives the Shockers at least one important edge — the Feb. 4 rematch at Koch Arena.

Both teams finish with five road games and four at home.

Illinois State’s schedule is tougher at the top with games at Missouri State and Northern Iowa. WSU plays MSU twice and trips to Drake and Loyola might challenge more than expected.

It’s all there for the Shockers, but they have to show they can handle Illinois State’s zone defense. If they don’t defend with more purpose than they did in a 76-62 loss at Redbird Arena, home-court advantage won’t help.

It’s a point guard world

The Player of the Year will come from Illinois State or WSU, as will the bulk of the All-MVC teams.

There is that much separation between those two and the rest.

The way of the Valley says to pick the point guard when the choices are close.

Illinois State senior Paris Lee is the team leader, averaging 12.9 points, an MVC-best 5.3 assists and 2.2 steals. He makes 44.6 percent of his three-pointers.

Teammate Deontae Hawkins leads the Redbirds in scoring (15.2) and rebounds (7.0). Kenpom.com ranks MiKyle McIntosh as the MVC’s best, although his turnovers argue against his candidacy.

A conference that went for Drake’s Adam Emmenecker (2008) and WSU’s Fred VanVleet in 2014 and 2016 will lean guard again, at the halfway point.

More awards for the top

The All-MVC team is loaded with Redbirds and Shockers.

Go with Lee and Hawkins from the Redbirds. Forward Markis McDuffie and guard Landry Shamet are the choices from WSU’s balanced rotation.

For the final spot, Loyola’s Milton Doyle averages 15.7 points and cut down on turnovers that hurt him in the past. The Ramblers, who won for the fourth time in five games on Saturday at Indiana State, are one of many challengers for third place and Doyle is enjoying his best season.

That leaves off McIntosh in a tough choice. The Redbirds can make an argument for three first-teamers if they sweep the Shockers.

Don’t let Doyle’s peformance overshadow teammate Donte Ingram, who averages 17 points and 7.1 rebounds in MVC games. If Northern Iowa continues its surge, senior Jeremy Morgan will continue to get his due as one of the MVC’s best all-around talents. Drake guard Reed Timmer is also a worthy candidate.

Missouri State’s Alize Johnson, with his 13 double-doubles, is the halfway-point Newcomer of the Year. A strong finish by the Bears puts him on the All-MVC team.

Shamet is a strong choice for Freshman of the Year in a weak season for rookies.

Illinois State’s Dan Muller is 9-0 at the midway point, so give him Coach of the Year. It’s unfortunate the Redbirds weren’t healthier in November and December.

Drake’s Jeff Rutter revived a sinking team when he took over for Ray Giacoletti in December. WSU’s Gregg Marshall? All he did was lose two NBA players and three other seniors, yet keep his team near the top of the MVC.

Where did this come from?

Drake is the feel-good story of the first half. When Giacoletti quit in December, he left a team with a 1-7 record and no NCAA Division I wins.

The Bulldogs are 6-8 under Rutter, 5-5 in the MVC after Saturday’s home loss to UNI.

Instead of falling apart, the Bulldogs started playing faster and found an identity that works. They are confident at home and face Illinois State, Wichita State and Missouri State at the Knapp Center in February. Tuesday, they won at Missouri State for the first time since 2001.

Entering the weekend, Drake led the MVC in tempo, according to kenpom.com, and percentage of three-pointers taken. It’s hard to win at Drake. Rutter, for the first month, found a way to make the Bulldogs interesting.

On the flip side, Indiana State still owns the Valley’s lone non-conference win over a top-50 RPI opponent — No. 3 Butler.

The Sycamores are buried at the bottom of the MVC, in danger of their worst Valley record since the 2007 team went 5-13.

The best to come

▪  Loyola at Missouri State, Tuesday (no TV; ESPN3.com) — The Bears can’t lose another home game if they want to finish third.

▪  Northern Iowa at Illinois State, Wednesday (FSKC) — UNI rebounded from a seven-game losing streak with a five-game win streak. It gets two shots at the Redbirds in February. If big men Bennett Koch and Klint Carlson continue to play well, the Panthers can shake up the standings.

▪  Illinois State at Wichita State, Feb. 4 (ESPN2) — The Redbirds made 13 of 21 shots in the second half of the first meeting.

▪  Illinois State at Drake, Feb. 7 (no TV; ESPN3.com) — Beware the Knapp Center, where a visitor might need to score 90 points.

▪  Illinois State at Missouri State, Feb. 15 (FSKC) — The Redbirds outscored MSU 23-5 at the foul line in a 74-71 overtime win at Redbird Arena.

▪  Wichita State at Missouri State, Feb. 25 (TBA) — Shockers finish MVC play on the road for the first time since 2013.

This story was originally published January 28, 2017 at 5:10 PM with the headline "MVC basketball: Enjoy February because March might disappoint."