Middle class rises up in MVC basketball, which might not be a good thing

Wichita State basketball coach Gregg Marshall wasn’t specific when he said other teams would notice what Oklahoma State did to the Shockers.

Which teams from the Missouri Valley Conference? All of them, perhaps. Illinois State, primarily, probably.

MVC play begins on Wednesday with the Shockers at Indiana State and Missouri State at Northern Iowa. The Shockers (10-3) remain the Valley favorite.

Illinois State, picked second, is capable of dialing up some of the same assets that Oklahoma State did in its win over Wichita State at Intrust Bank Arena. Like OSU with Jawun Evans, the Redbirds will win the contest at point guard in most games with senior Paris Lee. Illinois State plays at a much slower pace and doesn’t force as many turnovers as Oklahoma State. It does play good defense and can go on frenzies, as it did when it forced seven turnovers in 10 minutes against Tulsa to build a 21-4 lead on Sunday in Hawaii, on its way to a 68-56 win.

The Redbirds, like the rest of the MVC, are also capable of a clunker. And that propensity defines November and December for the MVC. The Shockers came the closest to playing well consistently with win streaks of five and four games and a 19.2-point margin of victory. In losses to Louisville, Michigan State and Oklahoma State, however, the Shockers trailed by 16 or more points.

Did those lapses give MVC teams a clue on how to deal with the Shockers? The next two months will answer.

MVC’s march to March

The Valley enters conference play looking very much like a conference that will send its automatic qualifer to the NCAA Tournament and no more.

Changing that picture will depend on schools such as WSU and Illinois State avoiding bad losses, separating from the MVC pack and help from non-conference opponents.

It’s different from recent seasons, when Wichita State and Northern Iowa played well enough in November and December to buff up an at-large resume.

WSU (ranked No. 76) and Illinois State (No. 65) are the only Valley schools in the top 100 of the warrennolan.com RPI. Neither owns a victory over a top-50 opponent.

Ken Pomeroy’s statistical rankings like the Shockers significantly more, and that could be helpful come NCAA selection time. Kenpom.com ranks WSU No. 23. Illinois State is No. 71.

Neither school, however, owns a top-50 win in the kenpom.com rankings.

MVC’s middle class

While the Valley’s upper crust isn’t loaded, the conference shows signs of more balance and a stronger mid-section.

Eight schools rank between No. 65 (Illinois State) and No. 173 (Missouri State) in the RPI.

Only two (No. 206 Bradley, No. 349 Drake) are below 200. Last season, four schools ranked No. 236 or worse.

Pomeroy tells a similar story of parity. Seven schools rank between No. 71 and No. 178.

Up and coming

The surprise of the MVC is Loyola (10-3), which is riding an improved offense and the scoring of transfer Aundre Jackson.

The Ramblers lead the Valley in shooting percentage (51.5), three-point accuracy (38.4) and turnover margin (plus-4.15).

Jackson, a 6-foot-5 forward from McLennan (Texas) Community College, averages 16.8 points and 4.5 rebounds and is shooting an MVC-best 72.6 percent from the field.

The addition of guard Clayton Custer, a transfer from Iowa State, also helps. Custer, who played at Blue Valley Northwest, leads the MVC in three-point shooting at 51 percent (26 of 51).

Up and down

Indiana State owns the Valley’s best win, a 72-71 thriller over Butler (No. 11 in the RPI) at Hulman Center.

The Sycamores followed that with a 77-59 home loss to No. 248 Western Kentucky. They needed two overtimes to defeat No. 210 Eastern Illinois 88-85 at home in their last game before the break.

Who can figure out the Sycamores?

The departure of forward T.J. Bell hurt Indiana State’s inside depth. Bell quit the team after 10 games, despite a return to the starting lineup.

Northern Iowa might be almost as hard to figure.

The Panthers defeated Arizona State and Oklahoma in November. Since then, they are 2-6 against the MVC’s toughest non-conference schedule. If losses to Xavier (twice), Wyoming, Iowa and North Carolina didn’t dent their spirit, expect a rebound from the Panthers. Last season, they weathered a 2-6 MVC start to finish 11-7, win the automatic bid and defeat Texas in the NCAA Tournament.

Names to know

▪  Evansville guard Jaylon Brown leads the MVC in scoring with an average of 21.5 points and minutes played, 35.5. Guard Ryan Taylor, a transfer from Ohio, averages 16 points and the Aces are 9-4 after losing four starters.

▪  Missouri State forward Alize Johnson earned either player or newcomer of the week honors four times this season. Johnson, a 6-9 junior transfer, averaged 17 points and 10.5 rebounds in games against Southern Cal and DePaul in Las Vegas.

▪  Lee leads the MVC with an average of 5.3 assists, in addition to 14.7 points and 50.8-percent three-point shooting.

▪  Northern Iowa’s Jeremy Morgan, the preseason Player of the Year, is holding up against the tough competition. He averages 16.6 points, 7.5 rebounds and 3.2 assists. Klint Carlson, after scoring 19 vs. Arizona State and 22 vs. OU, hasn’t scored more than 11 since. He lost his starting job for two games after he received his second technical foul of the season against Wyoming.

This story was originally published December 26, 2016 at 6:31 PM with the headline "Middle class rises up in MVC basketball, which might not be a good thing."