Wichita State closes non-conference needing NCAA resume help

If Saturday’s loss to Oklahoma State represented a low for Wichita State, wins over LSU, Colorado State and Oklahoma showed a better look.

How much better? That won’t be clear for another month.

The Shockers need LSU, Colorado State and Oklahoma to win in January and February to help WSU’s NCAA Tournament resume. Unlike in past seasons, the Shockers enter January without a clear-cut, attention-grabbing victory to promote its at-large worthiness. While the Shockers aren’t locked in to having to win the conference tournament for an automatic bid, they also aren’t a favorite of NCAA projections.

“We had done great until the Oklahoma State game,” WSU coach Gregg Marshall said. “I thought we had done probably A, A-minus work. Now I’d say B-minus, C-plus....”

WSU (9-3) finishes its non-conference schedule against South Dakota State (7-7) on Thursday night at Koch Arena. In most ways, it’s a strong run by the Shockers, who replaced five seniors, two now in the NBA, and responded by winning games by an average of 19 points.

Saturday’s 93-76 loss to Oklahoma State, however, spoiled the mood. The Shockers missed a chance to bank what appears to be a quality win and got out-worked in the process.

“We’re either going to move on from this … and rebuild from this and do what we’re supposed to do,” WSU junior Zach Brown said after Saturday’s game. “Or we could lay down and lose three or four more games and put ourselves in a tough position to make the (NCAA) tournament, which is always going to be our goal.”

Saturday’s bad news didn’t stop with an inability to guard OSU’s Jawun Evans or hustle for loose balls.

Oklahoma blew an 11-point lead at home and lost 99-94 in overtime to Memphis. Kansas State thumped Colorado State 89-70 in Denver and the Rams increased the damage with Monday’s 69-66 loss to Loyola Marymount.

LSU, perhaps surprisingly after the Shockers routed it 82-47 in the Battle 4 Atlantis, is a bright spot. The Tigers are 8-2 with an RPI ranked No. 62 and they play at Wake Forest on Thursday. While depending on the Tigers — who failed to make the NCAAs last season with No. 1 NBA pick Ben Simmons — to lead a resume is risky, they are potentially helpful.

When the NCAA selection committee meets in Indianapolis in March, WSU’s at-large resume will likely depend on how well LSU, OU and Colorado State play over the next two months. Road wins are valuable and owning two could place the Shockers in a select group — if the Sooners and Rams perform well. Losses to Louisville, Michigan State and Oklahoma State shouldn’t hurt and will show the committee that WSU tested itself in non-conference play.

RPI rankings and NCAA bracket projections can change quickly as more data arrives. Neither statistical rankings nor seeding predictions are informed by enough games to be taken as gospel in late December. But those numbers are getting closer to meaningful and the Shockers are on notice. Their NCAA resume needs work and the best chances for quality wins are past. In the Missouri Valley Conference, the potential for a damaging loss is almost a nightly danger.

Wichita State’s RPI, according to warrennolan.com, ranks No. 76. The best win is over LSU with two more games — against No. 61 Illinois State — against the top 100.

OU ranks No. 185 in the RPI; Colorado State No. 157. The Sooners play seven straight top-100 opponents and even a few wins could dramatically boost their power ranking. The Rams, much like WSU, need to pile up wins — Wyoming and Nevada are the only Mountain West Conference teams in the top 100.

In some ways, nothing changes for WSU. As in most seasons, it needs to boost its RPI with a strong MVC record, substituting quantity for quality. In past seasons, WSU entered MVC play with a standout non-conference victory. That asset isn’t guaranteed this season.

This story was originally published December 21, 2016 at 4:07 PM with the headline "Wichita State closes non-conference needing NCAA resume help."