Need help filling out your bracket? Here are our bold predictions for NCAA Tournament
The NCAA Tournament is back, which means it’s that glorious time of year when basketball fans listen to “One Shining Moment” on repeat and obsess over their brackets as if they are paid experts.
I hope you are as excited about it as we are.
But March Madness isn’t all fun and games. Filling out a bracket and predicting all those games can be difficult.
Is this the year to pick all the No. 12 seeds to win in the first round? How many No. 1 seeds will reach the Final Four? Which teams will capture our imagination and earn the title of “Cinderella?”
These are questions that we’re all asking.
To help you out, we asked our staff of sports writers to share their bold predictions for the NCAA Tournament.
Here are our picks (with brief explanations):
UC San Diego will make the Sweet 16
Undoubtedly, 12th-seeded UC San Diego is the best NCAA team you’ve never heard of — while also featuring one of the best mascots (Tritons) in the tourney as well. UCSD elevated itself from 130th to 39th in Ken Pomeroy’s advanced rankings over the course of the season and features an extreme style where it ranks top 10 in both limiting turnovers and also creating them on the other end.
Coach Eric Olen is analytically savvy too, with the data at ShotQuality.com reflecting that his team is one of the nation’s best at getting “good” shots while avoiding inefficient mid-range jumpers. The Tritons will need those small edges to add up against higher-seeded teams, but the path to the Sweet 16 isn’t overwhelming, either. UC San Diego gets a weary fifth-seeded Michigan team coming off a three-games-in-three-days stretch in the Big Ten Tournament before a potential matchup against fourth-seeded Texas A&M, which has had issues with turning it over.
The Tritons — before the tournament at least — appear to be this year’s best bet at turning into Cinderella.
- Jesse Newell, Chiefs beat writer
Tom Izzo will guide Michigan State to another Final Four
I’ve got Houston over Florida in my national championship game, and I believe this will be a somewhat chalky tournament. But don’t sleep on Michigan State. I know it’s not crazy to put a two-seed in the Final Four, but that would mean heavily favored Auburn doesn’t get there from the South Region. The Spartans aren’t the best shooting team, but they’re physical and they play with the edge needed to win in March. I also think Tom Izzo has another national championship run in him.
- Blair Kerkhoff, Chiefs beat writer
Louisville and BYU will both make the Elite Eight
These are my two favorite sleeper teams in the NCAA Tournament. I could have chosen to write about just one of them. But there’s no fun in that. The “Why not both?” meme exists for a reason.
I think No. 8 seed Louisville will beat No. 9 seed Creighton in the first round and then upset top overall seed Auburn to reach the Sweet 16. The Tigers may have peaked too early. Auburn enters March Madness having lost three of its past four games, and there’s a chance Auburn’s recent struggles will continue.
Louisville is on the other end of the spectrum: The Cardinals have won 21 of their last 23 games. This team profiles more like a No. 4 seed than a No. 8 seed. It will also benefit from playing in its home state this week. I smell an upset in the Round of 32. From there, I think there is a decent chance the bracket will open up for Louisville and it will face UC San Diego or Yale in the Sweet 16, which would leave the door wide open for a deep run.
No. 6 seed BYU should also benefit from playing close to home. The Cougars will open the NCAA Tournament in Denver in a pod that includes VCU, Wisconsin and Montana. They should take advantage of playing at a high altitude. They know how to play basketball in the mountains. Their likely opponents will not.
The Cougars are also just plain good. If not for Houston, they would get my vote for the best team in the Big 12. BYU can easily make it to the Sweet 16, where a must-watch shootout likely awaits against Alabama. And BYU doesn’t lose shootouts. It is 19-1 when scoring 80 or more points this season.
- Kellis Robinett, K-State beat writer
High Point will send Purdue home early
A year ago, the Boilermakers advanced to the NCAA Tournament championship game. This time they could be the first big upset of the tournament. High Point, which is riding a 14-game winning streak, won the Big South and is averaging 82.2 points per game. The Panthers have a balanced attack with guard Kezza Giffa (14.8 ppg) as their leading scorer. Purdue’s defense is ranked 149th in the nation. The Boilermakers, who have lost six of their last nine, will need a big offensive effort to avoid the upset.
- Pete Grathoff, Star sports reporter
No. 1 seeds will dominate
As I went through my bracket on Tuesday, I realized I predicted way fewer first-round upsets than I normally do. Just two in the first round, in fact. Next thing you know, I’m going round by round and, presto, I came up with all four No. 1 seeds reaching the Final Four without having started off thinking that way at all.
No doubt it’s a crazy pick, especially considering the typical chaos of the tournament, the parity and volatility of the game today. It’s only happened once before (2008) since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. But, hey, that’s why the Final Four actually unfolding to seeding is a bold prediction.
- Vahe Gregorian, Star sports columnist