5 questions to decide Louisville-Tennessee women’s basketball winner in March Madness
March Madness is coming to Wichita and it’s time to break down the Sweet 16 matchup in the NCAA women’s basketball tournament between No. 1 seed Louisville and No. 4 Tennessee.
The Cardinals (27-4) will take on the Lady Vols (25-8) with a tip time of 3 p.m. Saturday at Intrust Bank Arena with the TV broadcast on ESPN2. Tickets for the Wichita NCAA tournament games can be purchased through Select-A-Seat.
Here are the five burning questions that could determine who advances to the Elite Eight in Wichita.
1. How much can Louisville run on Tennessee in transition?
Trying to score against Tennessee’s set defense every time in a halfcourt game has been a losing proposition for most opponents this season.
Thanks to 6-foot-6 anchor Tamari Key, the Lady Vols rank No. 9 nationally in halfcourt defensive efficiency by giving up just 0.66 points per possessions with opponents shooting 31.4% from the floor.
It’s an entirely different story when teams are able to push the pace against Tennessee, which is vulnerable when Key isn’t camped out in the paint to protect the basket. Get the Lady Vols’ defense back-pedaling and they go from the No. 9 halfcourt defense to the No. 276 transition defense, as their points per possession allowed skyrockets from 0.66 to 0.95 and opponents’ shooting percentages soar from 31.4% to 45.1%.
And bad news for Tennessee is that Louisville likes to run and jump and is one of the nation’s best teams at scoring in transition. The Cardinals score 1.08 points per possession in transition, the 11th-best efficiency in the country; their field goal percentage of 57.5% ranks third. That’s boosted by Louisville’s top-25 national marks in block rate (12.1%) and steal rate (12.3%).
Sophomore guard Hailey Van Lith (14.0 points), senior guard Kianna Smith (11.9 points), senior forward Emily Engstler (11.7 points) and senior guard Chelsie Hall (6.6 points) are all superb at scoring in transition, whether it’s attacking the basket or drifting to the perimeter to take advantage of a scrambled defense for a wide-open three-pointer.
Engstler is the engine that makes the Cardinals go. She ranks sixth nationally in steal rate (5.2%) and 42nd in block rate (7.7%), as the 6-foot-1 senior has superb instincts in analyzing in a split-second where the ball handler is going next. And once she pokes the ball free and starts the fast break, Engstler excels in finishing them with a crafty ability to dish or finish at the rim in transition.
The Cardinals have the chance to capitalize on a glaring weakness of Tennessee by doing something that they love to do. Depending on how much and how efficient it can be, Louisville could win the game with this advantage.
2. Can Tennessee establish its dominance in the post?
Tennessee brings by far the worst offense of the four teams in Wichita, but should hold a distinct advantage over Louisville when it comes to the post.
The Lady Vols run 12.6 post-ups per game, seventh-most nationally, and have scored the sixth-most points from post-ups this season. There’s no way around it for Louisville, Tennessee’s 6-foot-6 junior center Tamari Key presents a massive match-up problem.
Key is scoring 1.16 points per possession on halfcourt post-ups on more than four attempts per game, the 14th-best efficiency nationally for high-volume players. Louisville has one of the nation’s best defenses, but its lone weakness appears to be defending the post, as the team gives up 1.00 points per possession to rank No. 280 nationally.
It’s an impossible ask for the Cardinals to leave starting center, 6-3 sophomore Olivia Cochran, or backup, 6-5 senior Liz Dixon, alone in the post 1-on-1 defending Key. Tennessee loves nothing more than picking apart undersized defenses that choose to front Key by clearing the paint, having Key seal her defender, then find the angle from the perimeter to lob it over for the easy catch and score.
That means Louisville’s back-side help defense will have to be there early and often, consistently. Tennessee isn’t a great outside shooting team and it’s one of the most reluctant three-point shooting teams in the country.
One of the most entertaining games-within-the-game will be to see how much the Lady Vols can capitalize on their advantage inside.
3. How much can Louisville score around the basket?
The Cardinals have been very good at finishing around the basket, scoring 1.10 points per possession and shooting 54.0% on those shots to rank in the 88th percentile nationally.
That’s been where senior forward Emily Engstler (11.7 points) and sophomore center Olivia Cochran (8.6 points) have done a lot of damage, while guards like Hailey Van Lith (14.0 points) and Kianna Smith (11.9 points) are also adept at finishing around the rim.
But Louisville might have to become a jump-shooting team in the halfcourt against Tennessee, a testament to how much 6-foot-6 junior center Tamari Key can single-handedly alter the game.
Much like how Rudy Gobert anchors the defense of the Utah Jazz in the NBA, Key anchors the UT’s team defense that takes pride in ranking fifth nationally in two-point shooting percentage defense (37.7%). That’s because teams struggle to find a clean look inside the arc when Key, who averages 26.0 minutes, is on the floor.
She likes to camp out underneath the rim and operate as one of the biggest deterrents in women’s college basketball. And if teams try to draw her away from the basket and put her in pick-and-roll action near the perimeter, Key is very much capable of sliding her feet and blocking pull-up jumpers by the ball handler or using her length and anticipation to make up lost ground and smother attempts at the rim.
Key has a strong claim for the most disruptive defensive force in women’s college basketball, as she averages 3.6 blocks per game with the No. 1 block rate (14.0%) in the country. She recently passed WNBA superstar and Lady Vols legend Candace Parker as the program’s all-time career blocks leader (276) in just three seasons of work and was named a finalist for the Lisa Leslie award, which recognizes the nation’s best center.
Louisville doesn’t overly rely on the three-ball, but it is more than capable: the trio of Van Lith, Smith and Engstler alone cash in on 4.2 three-pointers per game on 38% accuracy. The Cardinals rank 15th nationally as a team with their 36.3% three-point shooting percentage, a big reason why Louisville has the No. 20 offense in the country with the 26th-best effective shooting percentage.
But without its usual advantage on the offensive glass and Key likely persuading would-be drivers to pull up for jumpers instead of attacking the basket, Louisville might need a good jump-shooting game to win if it struggles to score in transition.
4. How many turnovers can Louisville force?
As detailed in the first point, Louisville loves to run and a lot of those fast-break attempts are created from run-outs following turnovers.
The Cardinals force 19.3 turnovers per game and are 14-0 when they force at least 19 turnovers. Opponents are surrendering 24.1% of their possessions without a shot — good for the 19th-highest turnover rate in the country. That rate swells to 29.3% when Louisville slaps on its full-court press defense, which it does on a full quarter of possessions.
Tennessee has struggled taking care of the ball at times this season, committing at least 19 turnovers in 12 different games. The Lady Vols have a slightly better-than-average turnover rate, but that can be a dangerous game to play with Louisville. It’s sure to be a focus for Tennessee to avoid being sped up by the press and throwing the atomic bombs in the halfcourt the Cardinals love to feast on.
Few are better at ending opponent possessions than Louisville’s 6-foot-1 senior forward Emily Engstler, who averages 2.7 steals and 1.8 blocks. Her steal rate of 5.2% ranks sixth nationally and her block rate of 7.7% ranks 42nd. Engstler, an All-ACC first team and defensive team selection who earned honorable mention All-American status, currently leads the NCAA tournament field with 12 steals in two games.
Engstler can’t affect games in the same way as Tennessee’s 6-foot-6 center Tamari Key, but her instincts make her a true difference-maker on the defensive end. She is someone who Tennessee must always account for and could be vital to Louisville’s weak-side defense against Key.
Louisville is on pace for its best scoring defense (55.0 points) in program history and ranks No. 8 nationally in defensive efficiency. If the Cardinals can juice their numbers even more with turnovers on Saturday, then they could be dancing through Monday.
5. Who will win the rebounding battle?
Louisville is a team that is used to winning the battle for the boards, but Tennessee is a team that almost absolutely depends on it.
The Cardinals are a very good rebounding team, ranking 30th nationally in total rebounding rate. But they are up against one of the nation’s very best: the Lady Vols rank fourth in total rebounding rate and fourth in offensive rebounding rate — they collect an astounding 41.7% of their misses for 16.5 second chances per game.
Alexus Dye, a 6-foot Tennessee senior forward known as “Snoop” in the program, has been on a tear recently, averaging 20.0 points and 11.5 rebounds in the last four games, quite the hot streak for a player who averaged 8.9 points in the regular season. That’s been crucial since the Volunteers are likely to be without leading scorer and All-American Jordan Horston, who had one of the highest usage rates in the country and has been out since mid-February with a knee injury.
If Tennessee struggles shooting from the field like it has for much of this season, second-chance opportunities will become vital against one of the nation’s top teams. Sometimes the Lady Vols’ best offense might be just a shot hitting the rim to give 6-foot-6 center Tamari Key (3.7 offensive rebounds per game) and 6-foot forward Alexus Dye (2.7 per game) a chance to go grab the rebound closer to the rim and score on a put-back.
Louisville has shown the ability to win games in other ways without dominating the glass; Tennessee has not. The Lady Vols are 25-3 this season when out-rebounding opponents and 0-5 when they don’t, which makes that battle a vital one in this matchup.
This story was originally published March 25, 2022 at 5:12 AM.
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