College football betting odds and expert picks for KU, Mizzou & more in Week 11

No one is getting rich off my college football picks this season, but I am happy to report that my predictions have yielded three straight profitable weeks.

Hopefully a cold start can turn into a hot finish.

Unfortunately, Kansas State is off until November 15. So I can’t recommend another Avery Johnson rushing touchdown until then. And I doubt that bet will remain at plus-money for a road game against Oklahoma State. But there are plenty of other good games and matchups to cover this weekend.

Let’s see if we can find some more winners.

Texas A&M (-6.5) at Missouri

The big story surrounding this game is the absence of injured Missouri quarterback Beau Pribula. Matt Zollers, a freshman will take his place. That is a good break for Texas A&M. It will be hard for the Tigers to keep up with Texas A&M’s high-octane offense, which has scored at least 31 points in its past four SEC games. Missouri has been strong at home all season. Under normal circumstances, the Tigers would not be this large of an underdog. But it’s hard to predict what will happen with a new QB. That uncertainty might make Texas A&M the preferred side.

Kansas (+4.5) at Arizona

The Jayhawks are only 3-6 against the spread this season. And their covers came against Fresno State, West Virginia and UCF. Arizona is a step above all three of those teams. But the Wildcats are from elite in the Big 12. This could be a good opportunity to back Kansas as an underdog, but I like the over more. Both of these teams try to win with offense, and the over/under points total is only 56.5. Jalon Daniels and Noah Fifita should both put up great numbers.

My favorite college football bets for Week 11

1. BYU (+10.5) at Texas Tech: Based on every other competitive game that Texas Tech has played this season, this clash of top-10 teams should be relatively close until the fourth quarter. And then the Red Raiders should pull away. Their physicality in the trenches has a way of wearing opponents down. Let’s bet on it happening again. Pick: Texas Tech -1.5 in the 4th quarter.

2. Georgia (-8.5) at Mississippi State: Mississippi State has already covered this number at home against Arizona State and Texas. And Georgia is in a sandwich spot between Florida and Texas. Give me more cowbell! Pick: Mississippi State.

3. Oregon (-6.5) at Iowa: I must be one of the few people who remembers that Iowa pushed Indiana before losing 20-15 at home earlier this season. Because this spread is giving way too much love to Oregon. The Ducks haven’t beaten a good team all season. This won’t be an easy game for them. Pick: Iowa.

4. Nebraska (pick ‘em) at UCLA: Nebraska was in position to beat USC last week. But that game was played in Lincoln, and starting quarterback Dylan Raiola has since been lost for the season with an injury. The Huskers didn’t look great at full strength on offense. Things won’t get better with a backup QB playing on the West Coast. Pick: UCLA.

5. Iowa State (+6.5) at TCU: The Cyclones strike me as a team that has quit on the season. They have lost four straight games, and their defense keeps getting shredded in Big 12 play. Josh Hoover should have a big day against a depleted ISU secondary. Pick: TCU.

Last week: 3-2.

Season record: 21-29 (-10.2 units).

Other bets worth considering

6. UNLV (-4.5) at Colorado State: Fading the Rebels has been one of our most profitable bets of late. But UNLV is not playing one of the best teams in the Mountain West this weekend. They are much better than a Colorado State squad that fired its head coach weeks ago. Lean: UNLV.

7. Northwestern (+14.5) at USC: The Trojans have scored at least 31 points (and as many as 73) in all of their home games this season. I expect that trend to continue Friday night against one of the weaker teams in the Big Ten. Lean: USC team total over 30.5.

8. Duke (-10.5) at UConn: It may be hard for the Blue Devils to get excited about this game. Duke is coming off a thrilling win over Clemson, and Virginia is next up on schedule, followed by North Carolina. The Huskies are good enough to give Duke a game in a classic sandwich spot. Lean: UConn.

9. Colorado (+6.5) at West Virginia: The Mountaineers seem to have found something in freshman quarterback Scotty Fox. In their past two games, they pushed TCU at home and then pulled off an upset at Houston. Meanwhile, Colorado has looked hapless in blowout losses to Utah and Arizona. The Buffaloes may be on quit watch. Lean: West Virginia.

10. Cal (+21.5) at Louisville: I was really hoping to avoid the Golden Bears after they threw a pick-six to blow a cover in the closing moments against Virginia last week. I have suffered too many bad beats with this team. Unfortunately, this is way too many points. You want to back Louisville as an underdog against a highly ranked opponent. Not as a big favorite. The Cardinals are 0-4 against the spread when favored by more than 10 this season. Lean: Cal.

Last week: 3-2.

Season record: 27-23 (+2.6 units).

Upset pick of the week

11. Oregon at Iowa (+240): The Hawkeyes are no longer hapless on offense. Iowa is averaging 31.3 points per game this season. Not coincidentally, it has won four of its past five games with the only loss coming by five points against mighty Indiana. The Hawkeyes will be ready for this home game against Oregon, which doesn’t have a signature win yet this season. I view this as a coin-flip game. So I will gladly take Iowa at these odds. Pick: Iowa.

Last week: 0-1.

Season record: 4-6 (+1.8 units).

Kellis Robinett

The Wichita Eagle

Kellis Robinett covers Kansas State athletics for The Wichita Eagle and The Kansas City Star. A winner of more than a dozen national writing awards, he lives in Manhattan with his wife and four children.