KU basketball prediction: Can Kansas cover the massive spread vs. Green Bay?
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- KU opens season against Green Bay; Jayhawks listed 28.5-point favorites
- Green Bay returns scorers such as Marcus Hall but suffers on boards and turnovers
- Kansas projects to win and cover; analyst predicts 83-50 final and KU -28.5 covers
The No. 19 Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team opens the 2025-26 season against Green Bay on Monday night at Allen Fieldhouse.
Twenty-third-year KU head coach Bill Self’s roster features eight new players this season, including four upperclassmen transfers: Melvin Council, Jayden Dawson, Nginyu “Gee” Ngala and Tre White.
Much hype surrounds Jayhawks freshman Darryn Peterson. He’s the projected No. 1-overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.
Here is a scouting report and prediction for the game, KU’s first-ever meeting with Green Bay:
No. 19 Kansas vs. Green Bay
When/where: 7 p.m. Monday, Allen Fieldhouse
TV/streaming: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 0-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 324
Betting line: Kansas is a 28.5-point favorite.
All statistics are from KenPom.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition. Specific stats are from last season.
Green Bay Strengths
- Familiar faces: Green Bay brings back a number of key contributors — including, and notably, small forward Marcus Hall, who averaged 13.9 PPG last season.
- Middle-of-pack within the arc: For how bad the Phoenix were offensively last season, they still ranked No. 132 in 2-point percentage (52.2).
- Making the freebies: Green Bay ranked No. 17 in free-throw percentage (78.5)
Green Bay Weaknesses
- Rough last season: Green Bay finished 4-28 in coach Doug Gottlieb’s first season as head coach.
- Can’t generate turnovers: Green Bay ranked No. 330 in opponent turnover percentage (14.6).
- Rebounding struggles: The Phoenix ranked No. 362 in offensive rebound percentage (18.4).
Green Bay Name to Know
6-foot-6 junior forward Marcus Hall (No. 13)/stats from last season
+ Quality scorer (13.9 PPG)
+ Good at the line (shot 82.3% on free throws)
+ Solid rebounder (4.2 RPG )
+ Good 3-point shooter ( shot 36.7% on 3-pointers)
- Not the most efficient scorer (shot 42.4% from the field)
- Turnover prone (2.4 TPG)
Game Prediction
Look, the question isn’t whether Kansas will win this game.
It’s how the Jayhawks will look against Green Bay. Against Fort Hays State (but without star point guard Darryn Peterson), they didn’t look great for most of the game.
The offense was sluggish and the shooting remains a concern. That said, KU’s athleticism and defense were on full display against Fort Hays.
Here are a few things to watch for Monday:
1. How does KU’s shooting look? The Jayhawks, outside of Peterson, struggled to shoot the ball in both exhibition games.
2. Who is the second option on offense? That question is yet to be answered.
3. How does big man Flory Bidunga look? He had a rough game against Fort Hays State and fouled out against Louisville.
Questions aside, the Jayhawks should win this one, and I expect them to cover the gaudy spread.
Kansas 83, Green Bay 50
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (-28.5)
Shreyas’ season record last season: 25-9
KU Player to Watch: Darryn Peterson
The freshman phenom has dealt with cramping issues and a stomach bug, but he returned to practice on Friday.
When he has played, he has looked fantastic. He dropped 24 points in the first half vs. Louisville, but he played just 10 minutes in the second half.
Peterson appears to be good to go for Monday’s opener. Keep an eye on how he’s playing against Green Bay — we should know soon enough if he’s 100% healthy.
This story was originally published November 3, 2025 at 7:00 AM with the headline "KU basketball prediction: Can Kansas cover the massive spread vs. Green Bay?."
