Did the Kansas Jayhawks get lucky (or unlucky) with their NCAA Tournament draw?
The Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team learned its assignment for the NCAA Tournament on Sunday evening: No. 7 seed in the West Regional.
Florida is the No. 1 seed, followed by St. John’s at No. 2, Texas Tech at No. 3, Maryland at No. 4, Memphis at No. 5 and Missouri at No. 6.
This is the first time in the Bill Self era that the Jayhawks are not a top-4 seed. This is the Jayhawks’ lowest seed since 2000 when KU was a No. 8 seed.
Here’s a look at the Jayhawks’ potential path to the 2025 Final Four and whether they received lucky or unlucky draws along the way:
Round of 64
KU’s first-round opponent: No. 10 seed Arkansas
Lucky or unlucky draw? Mostly unlucky
Arkansas ranks No. 40 nationally in KenPom and looks to be the second-best of this year’s 10-seeds.
BartTorvik ranks Arkansas slightly lower than KenPom, with a ranking of 43. KenPom ranks KU 21st, and BartTorvik ranks KU 20th.
The Jayhawks played Arkansas in an exhibition game before the start of the season, and KU lost badly. Still, KU players Hunter Dickinson and Rylan Griffen didn’t play in that game.
There’s a chance of an upset here. The Razorbacks rank No. 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing 95.2 points per 100 possessions. KU’s offense has had an up-and-down season overall but ranks No. 48 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
The Jayhawks’ offense will be tested against a physical Arkansas defense.
KU opens as a 5.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel.
Round of 32
Potential opponent (if Vegas odds hold): No. 2-seed St. John’s
Lucky or unlucky draw? Lucky
If this is the matchup, Kansas draws this year’s easiest 2-seed. KenPom ranks St. Johns No. 11 and BartTorvik rates the Red Storm No. 15.
Despite that, St. John’s could pose some problems for KU.
The Red Storm have the best defense in the nation, ranking No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency (87.5). Former KU player Zuby Ejiofor anchors the defense.
In addition, the Red Storm ranks No. 9 in offensive rebounding rate (37.3) — KU has struggled on the boards in recent games.
That said, KU’s defense matches up well against St. Johns, which struggles to get quality shots and ranks No. 244 in effective field goal percentage (30.4).
The Red Storm are a terrible 3-point shooting team, ranking No. 338 in 3-point percentage (30.4%). This bodes well for Kansas, as KU has struggled to guard the perimeter in recent games.
Still, St. John’s will be favored and have the crowd advantage.
Sweet 16
Potential opponent (if Vegas odds hold): No. 3 seed Texas Tech
Lucky or unlucky draw? Unlucky
Texas Tech is the highest-ranked 3-seed. KenPom and BartTorvik have the Red Raiders at No. 7. Kansas lost to Texas Tech in Allen Fieldhouse in March.
The Red Raiders are a balanced team, ranking No. 6 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 37 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Texas Tech, which ranks 19th in 3-point percentage (37.9%), would test the Jayhawks’ defense. The Red Raiders have few flaws, but they rank No. 280 in free-throw rate (29.7).
If the Jayhawks make it this far, KU has a chance. That said — it’ll require one of the best games KU’s played all season.
Elite Eight
Potential opponent (if Vegas odds hold): No. 1 seed Florida
Lucky or unlucky draw? Slightly Unlucky
If the Jayhawks make it this far, there’s a good chance they’d face the second-easiest No. 1 seed.
But some of the metrics love them nonetheless.
KenPom ranks Florida No. 2, while BartTorvik ranks UF No. 4. Florida ranks top-10 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Florida ranks No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency (128.6).
For Kansas, the key will be to keep Florida off the boards, as the Gators rank No. 8 in offensive rebounding percentage (38.1).
On the offensive end, KU will have to hit 3-point shots at the rate it has done the last two games. KU hit double-digit 3-pointers in its previous two games for the first time all season.
Florida ranks No. 15 in opposing team 2-point percentage (45.9%), so KU will need to create offense by getting to the line — KU ranks No. 355 in free-throw rate — or from beyond the arc.
KU has a slight shot for an upset, but KU hasn’t beaten a team this good since defeating a young Duke squad in November.
KU’s NCAA Tournament path
Kansas coach Bill Self said it best: There’s no such thing as an easy draw as the No. 7 seed.
That said, the Jayhawks have a favorable path to the Final Four, relatively speaking.
If Kansas can win its first-round matchup, KU faces the easiest No. 2 seed in St. John’s. They won’t be shot out of the gym in that matchup, and a return trip to the Sweet 16 could get them rolling.
From Arkansas on, KU will likely be an underdog. That’s a new spot for KU. Florida and Texas Tech are the biggest tests in the bracket, too.
If Kansas reaches the Final Four this year, two things will undoubtedly be true: Kansas finally found the consistency it lacked all season and KU will be as battle-tested as any top-7 seed could hope to be.
This story was originally published March 16, 2025 at 7:01 PM with the headline "Did the Kansas Jayhawks get lucky (or unlucky) with their NCAA Tournament draw?."
