Scouting report and prediction for KU basketball vs. Iowa State, plus betting odds
The No. 7-ranked University of Kansas men’s basketball team is set to play No. 23 Iowa State in Ames on Saturday.
The Jayhawks (16-3, 4-2 Big 12) beat Cincinnati on Monday. The Cyclones beat K-State on Wednesday.
Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.
No. 7 Kansas vs. No. 23 Iowa State
When/where: 12:30 p.m., Hilton Coliseum, Ames, Iowa
TV/Streaming: CBS
Opponent’s record: 15-4, 4-2 Big 12
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 12
Betting line: Iowa State is a 3.5-point favorite
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division-I competition.
Iowa State Team Strengths
Elite defense: The Cyclones rank No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency (93.1). Adjusted defensive efficiency is the amount of points given up per 100 possessions. In comparison, Kansas ranks No.25 in the same category.
Turnover creators: Iowa State ranks No. 1 in turnovers forced percentage (26.6)
Two-point makers: The Cyclones rank No. 38 in 2-point percentage (54.8).
Iowa State Team Weaknesses
FT struggles: Iowa State is abysmal at the free-throw line, shooting 69.9%. That ranks No. 246 in the nation.
Don’t attempt many 3-pointers: The Cyclones rank No. 311 in 3-point rate (31.4). Kansas is even worse, ranking No. 323.
Minutes turnover: Iowa State doesn’t bring many familiar faces, with the team ranking No. 202 in minutes continuity percentage (36.4%).
Iowa State Name to Know
6–foot-1 sophomore guard Tamin Lipsey (No. 3)
+ Leading scorer (14.1 points per game)
+ Elite rebounder for his size (5.3 rebounds per game)
+ Facilitator (5.6 assists per game)
+ Good shooter (shooting 37.1% from deep)
+ Quick hands (3.2 steals per game)
- Turnover prone (2.3 per game)
Tale of the Tape
Iowa State ranks No. 55 in offensive rebounding percentage (33.6), so Kansas needs to prioritize boxing out. In recent games, KU has struggled with its rebounding.
In the clip above, the Cyclones player missed the bucket, and K-State didn’t box out, leading to a second-chance dunk for Iowa State.
For Kansas, the goal is simple. Keep this physical and athletic Cyclones team off the glass by boxing out and keeping an eye on each player. That means the Jayhawks need to communicate around the rim and make more effort to go after rebounds.
Game Prediction
This game might be KU’s most challenging road game all season.
The Jayhawks offense needs to take care of the ball against a defense that thrives on creating turnovers. Any KU turnover could generate momentum for the Cyclones, leading to the crowd playing an even bigger role than usual.
The Jayhawks need to come out strong, sustain it, and not let the crowd influence the game.
It’ll be a tough one, but I think Kansas narrowly wins.
Kansas 71, Iowa State 67
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (+3.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 13-4
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 10-7
KU Player to watch: Johnny Furphy
Since Furphy became a starter, he’s been averaging 17 points and eight rebounds in the last three games. He will get tested by an excellent Iowa State defense, so he must play up to his new standard to give the Jayhawks a better chance to come out on top.
This story was originally published January 27, 2024 at 6:00 AM with the headline "Scouting report and prediction for KU basketball vs. Iowa State, plus betting odds."
