Can KU find its footing against Big 12 leader Texas? A breakdown of the Longhorns...
After a blowout loss at Iowa State on Saturday, the Kansas men’s basketball team looks to bounce back against Big 12 conference leader Texas on Monday at Allen Fieldhouse.
The two teams met last March, with the Jayhawks winning 73-63 at Allen Fieldhouse.
Texas is coming off a 69-66 win at K-State on Saturday. The Longhorns have won four straight conference games.
Texas’ game against K-State marked its third double-digit comeback win in conference play. The Longhorns are strong on both sides of the ball and have a three-level scoring guard.
Here’s a scouting report and prediction for the game:
Monday’s game: No. 8 Kansas vs. No. 10 Texas (rankings will be updated Monday)
When/where: 8 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse
TV/streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 19-4, 8-2 Big 12
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 9
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
Texas Team Strengths
Offensive savants: Texas ranks 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency (118). Adjusted offensive efficiency is the number of points a team scores per 100 possessions, adjusted for the opponent. The Longhorns also rank 36th in the nation in effective field goal percentage (53.8)
Elite defense: UT ranks 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency (95.5). Adjusted defensive efficiency is the number of points a team allows per 100 possessions, adjusted for the opponent.
Old school play: The Longhorns do an excellent job of scoring inside the arc. They rank 16th in two-point percentage (56%).
Texas Team Weaknesses
Struggle with the long ball: Texas ranks 221st in three-point percentage (33.1%).
Undersized: Like KU, UT isn’t the tallest team. The Longhorns are 266th in average height (76.6”, 6-foot-4.6 on average)
Foul heavy: Though the Longhorns play great defense, they also foul a lot. Texas ranks 265th in opposing team foul rate (34.4%)
Texas Name to Know
6-foot-4 senior guard Marcus Carr
+ Good shooter (38.7% from three)
+ Quick hands (1.6 steals per game)
+ Quality facilitator (four assists per game)
- Not an elite finisher at the rim (59.5%)
- Rough shooting stretch in his last three games, 10-for-32 (31.3%) from the floor
Tale of the Tape
Texas does an excellent job of finding easy buckets — especially inside the arc. Here, Forward Christian Bishop received a pass in the post and immediately drew the double team from West Virginia. Bishop spotted a cutting Dylan Disu and passed him the ball. Disu converted the wide-open dunk.
On Saturday, KU’s interior defense got picked apart by smart passes by ISU and the Jayhawks’ tendency to over-help. Texas does an even better job finding good looks inside, so Kansas must rotate when needed, pay attention to cutters and not overuse double-teams.
The Longhorns love to score on fast breaks off turnovers. In this play, guard Tyrese Hunter rumbled down the court and found Bishop for an alley-oop dunk. The Longhorns are excellent at scoring quickly off turnovers, especially steals. In transition, they shoot 69.2% at the rim. So not only do the Jayhawks need to get back on fast breaks, but they need to keep track of and mark their man. Otherwise, Texas could feast on the open floor.
Game Prediction
After losing at Iowa State on Saturday, Kansas is tied with three other teams (K-State, Baylor and TCU) for third in the conference.
This game against Big 12 leader Texas might be the most crucial game of the season — at least so far.
The matchup of UT’s offense vs. the Jayhawks’ defense is a fascinating one. The key to success for Kansas is to wall off the paint, limit Texas in transition and force the Longhorns to shoot threes. Not only is UT not a great three-point shooting team, but they rank 264th in the nation in three-point attempt percentage (35%). In fact, three-pointers make up just 26.5% of UT’s total points distribution percentage.
On the other end, KU needs Dajuan Harris and Kevin McCullar to play as aggressively as they did against K-State. Kansas could help itself out by opening the game with better energy and causing UT to get into foul trouble.
I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that KU wins this game (especially in Allen), but Texas is more consistent on both ends of the court.
Factor in Kansas’ injury issues and it doesn’t look great for the Jayhawks. I like the Longhorns in this one.
Texas 78, Kansas 72
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Texas (+3.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 9-6
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 8-7
KU Player to Watch: Kevin McCullar
The McCullar experience has been a tad perplexing this season. On the one hand, he’s KU’s best defender, but offensively he’s struggled with his shooting consistency. McCullar has shot 7-for-27 (26%) from the floor in his last three games.
Still, McCullar could significantly help KU offensively against Texas. He needs to be aggressive on offense and get to the free-throw line. The forward shot just 2-for-10 against K-State but finished with 16 points thanks to some free throws. No matter how well he’s shooting, Kansas needs the aggressive version of McCullar to bring energy and open up the floor for his teammates. When open, he cannot hesitate; he needs to let shots fly.
McCullar will also likely guard Carr, so he must bring his A-game. That means forcing his usual 2.4 steals per game (which leads the Big 12) and getting into Carr’s airspace, particularly beyond the arc.
If McCullar can bring energy on offense and play his usual stellar defense, Kansas’ chances of sending the Longhorns home with a loss improve.
This story was originally published February 6, 2023 at 6:00 AM with the headline "Can KU find its footing against Big 12 leader Texas? A breakdown of the Longhorns...."
