University of Kansas

Betting on the NCAA Tournament? Oddsmakers and selection committee don’t always agree

Kentucky guard Sahvir Wheeler (2) goes up against Tennessee guard Zakai Zeigler (5) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in the semifinal round at the Southeastern Conference tournament, Saturday, March 12, 2022, in Tampa, Fla.
Kentucky guard Sahvir Wheeler (2) goes up against Tennessee guard Zakai Zeigler (5) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in the semifinal round at the Southeastern Conference tournament, Saturday, March 12, 2022, in Tampa, Fla.

The other NCAA Tournament seeding process happened after the selection committee packed up and went home.

This one is supplied by oddsmakers and the money didn’t always agree with the NCAA, starting with a No. 1 seed.

BetOnline, an online gambling company, make Gonzaga (5/8), Arizona (9/5) and Kansas (2/1) favorites to win their regions in the men’s tournament. But where the committee selected Baylor (13/4) as the fourth top seed, the oddsmaker favors second-seeded Kentucky (11/6).

Also among top four seeds, the gambling site likes Iowa, Tennessee and Houston more than the committee.

The team most over-seeded? Providence, the fourth-seeded in the Midwest is the seventh choice by BetOnline.

Why the difference? The selection committee looks for competitive fairness. With opening lines, oddsmakers look to get equal action on both sides of the wager.

According to TheLines.com, a service that tracks odds in the U.S. betting market with a consensus of the nation’s legal online sportsbooks, Gonzaga is the pick to win it all, followed by Arizona, Kentucky, Kansas and Duke. The Jayhawks and Blue Devils have the same odds. Baylor is the sixth choice.

South Carolina (7/4) is the women’s tournament favorite, according to BetOnline, followed by Connecticut (7/2). Kansas, Kansas State and Missouri State are listed at 200/1.

Here are the top four men’s seeds by the committee and BetOnline:

NCAA selection committee

West: Gonzaga, Duke, Texas Tech, Arkansas

South: Arizona, Villanova, Tennessee, Illinois

Midwest: Kansas, Auburn, Wisconsin, Providence

East: Baylor, Kentucky, Purdue, UCLA

BetOnline

West: Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Duke Arkansas

South: Arizona, Tennessee, Villanova, Houston

Midwest: Kansas, Auburn/Iowa, Wisconsin

East: Kentucky, Baylor, UCLA, Purdue

This story was originally published March 14, 2022 at 2:04 PM with the headline "Betting on the NCAA Tournament? Oddsmakers and selection committee don’t always agree."

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Blair Kerkhoff
The Kansas City Star
Blair Kerkhoff has covered sports for The Kansas City Star since 1989. He was elected to the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023.
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