Quick Scout: How Kansas Jayhawks basketball might adjust from last game vs. Texas Tech
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Monday’s game: No. 13 Texas Tech at No. 5 Kansas, 8 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV/Streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 15-4
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 14
Point spread: Kansas by 7.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Creating havoc: Texas Tech’s defense ranks 15th nationally in turnover rate and eighth in non-steal turnovers — so yes, the Red Raiders are still good at taking charges.
• Drawing contact: The Red Raiders get fouled a bunch and are 30th in offensive free throw rate, though that number also has gone way up since Big 12 play began.
• Interior defense: Texas Tech loads up its defense with help to make scoring difficult inside, ranking 18th in two-point percentage defense.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Three-point shooting: Texas Tech shoots fewer threes than an average NCAA team, yet still has poor accuracy on those infrequent attempts; it has made 32% of its outside shots this season and just 26% in conference play.
• Carelessness: The Red Raiders have struggled most of the year with giving it away, ranking 251st in turnover percentage.
• Three-point prevention: Texas Tech has to give up something with its aggressive defensive style, and the most significant concession is allowing threes; opponents have attempted 48% of their field-goal attempts against the Red Raiders from long range, which is the fifth-highest mark for any defense nationally.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-6 guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (No. 1)
Plus: Has played last three games after missing seven straight contests with back injury
Plus: Was Texas Tech’s best player Saturday in home win over West Virginia with 23 points on 12 field-goal attempts
Plus: Excellent finisher in transition
Plus: Gets to free-throw line a decent amount and is 80% career shooter there
Plus: Has to be respected as three-point shooter; attempts nearly five per game and is right around NCAA average at 33%
Minus: Can be turnover prone
Minus: Has mostly been a non-factor on the glass this season, which is surprising considering his size
PREDICTION
KU should be tired.
That was an emotional victory on Saturday for many reasons in the Jayhawks’ desperate come-from-behind road win over K-State. KU’s starters played a lot as well, with the top four guys in the rotation logging 31 minutes or more.
The Jayhawks could certainly use some help from Allen Fieldhouse, and luckily for them, the students are back, meaning an extra jolt should be there. Texas Tech has been a bit foul-happy lately, and it also shouldn’t get the volume of charge calls it typically receives when teams go to Lubbock.
I actually like KU in this spot for another reason, though: threes. KU effectively created and made those in the first matchup against Texas Tech, but it simply couldn’t avoid turnovers. The Jayhawks gave it away on 26% of their possessions while too often hunting interior shots when the easier path often is to take the perimeter ones more readily available.
I think KU coach Bill Self will be fine looking more to this strategy — especially considering how dominant his team was on the offensive glass against K-State. If the Jayhawks can simply get shot volume against the Red Raiders, their efficiency should be fine.
Give me KU for the win and cover.
Kansas 77, Texas Tech 66
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
Sometimes the obvious answer is the correct one. Ochai Agbaji should be hunting threes against Texas Tech’s help-heavy defense, looking to make the Red Raiders pay when their rotations are slow. Fatigue could be a factor for Agbaji after his 36-minute, 29-point effort against K-State. The pace of this one should be slower, though, and in the half-court, Agbaji’s teammates should be doing everything possible to help him peck away at Texas Tech’s defense, three points at a time.
Last game prediction: Kansas 76, K-State 63 (Actual: KU 78-75) ❌
2021-22 record vs. spread: 6-12
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 136-117-3 (54%)
This story was originally published January 24, 2022 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Quick Scout: How Kansas Jayhawks basketball might adjust from last game vs. Texas Tech."
