Quick Scout: Can Kansas Jayhawks outrun their concerns vs. Michigan State Spartans?
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Tuesday’s game: No. 3 Kansas vs. Michigan State, 6 p.m. Central, Madison Square Garden, New York
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 0-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 22
Point spread: KU by 4 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Extra chances: Though Michigan State took a small step back in this area last season, it’s still been a coach Tom Izzo staple; the Spartans have ranked top 100 in offensive rebounding percentage each of the last four seasons and in the top 40 three of those times.
• Unselfishness: Izzo’s teams have ranked top seven nationally in assist percentage each of the last seven seasons, which has included four years where the Spartans were the nation’s best in the category.
• Rim protection: Again, there was some regression last season, but when it comes to two-point percentage defense, Michigan State has ranked sixth, 18th, first, second, 10th and 108th nationally over the last six years.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Shooting: This could easily improve with new personnel like transfer Tyson Walker, but Michigan struggled to shoot in nearly every area on field goals last season, which included twos (241st nationally), threes (252nd) and shots at the rim (289th).
• Running: Michigan State loves to run under Izzo — the team had an above-average number of attempts in that setting last season — but it just didn’t work a year ago; the Spartans’ fast-break efficiency was in the ninth percentile according to Synergy, while its adjusted shot percentage on the run ranked 310th nationally according to Hoop-Math.
• Defensive pressure: Izzo prefers extreme position defense, which means the Spartans have ranked among the nation’s worst in defensive turnover percentage for seven consecutive seasons.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-9 forward Joey Hauser (No. 10)
Plus: Four-star Rivals recruit out of high school
Plus: Scored nine points for Marquette against KU on 3-for-3 shooting in 77-68 loss to Jayhawks in 2018
Plus: Strong defensive rebounder
Plus: Dangerous three-point range, as he’s a 38% career shooter there with a decent number of attempts
Plus: Choosy from two but made a high percentage last season
Plus: Gets to free throw line often and shoots well from stripe
Minus: Not a shot-blocking threat
Minus: Turnover prone
Minus: Synergy’s logs labeled him as “below average” defender last season who especially struggled to defend in post
PREDICTION
The big question for me in this game is whether KU can outrun its early-season issues.
A rewatch of the Emporia State exhibition showed KU is far from a finished product at this point ... especially when it comes to dynamic point guard Remy Martin.
Here’s an example. Pay attention to the bottom, as after making a pass, Martin is motioned by teammate Ochai Agabji to stay away to keep proper spacing.
Martin doesn’t. So when Joseph Yesufu drives baseline — and Agbaji should be wide open when his man helps to the lane — he’s not because Martin’s defender is in the way. Yesufu has no choice but to go up with a shot.
Emporia State blocks it for de-facto turnover.
That was just one example of many that popped up for KU and was likely the reason Self remained so stone-faced on the sideline even as the Jayhawks had an impressive run in the first half.
Remember, though, KU still beat ESU easily. A lot of that was because of Martin too, as his playmaking in transition and tough shot-making in the half-court overcame what could’ve been a worse effort.
That’s sort of how I see this KU contest shaping up. Will execution miscues be the story? Or will the Jayhawks turn up defensively, get some steals (Michigan State does turn it over some) and turn this into a horse race that is won outside the half-court sets anyway?
It’s worth mentioning that KU is not whole. Jalen Wilson (suspension) is out, and it’d be a pretty big surprise if transfer Jalen Coleman-Lands (toe) logged more than a few minutes. More than likely, Self will stick with guys he trusts, which means a 7-to-8-man rotation could be the play in what should be a competitive opener.
This one seems like it’ll be close to me. I like Michigan State for the cover, even if KU is able to stack up enough easy ones early to squeak its way to 1-0.
Kansas 68, Michigan State 67
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Michigan State
HAWK TO ROCK
Michigan State will start a big lineup, while KU will counter that with a much smaller one. And in a battle of strength against quickness, Christian Braun seems most likely to take advantage. Not only will KU rely on Braun heavily to clear the boards with Wilson out, but the guard also should get an opportunity to go against slower-footed defenders while potentially showing off the summer improvements Self has spoken about often. Let’s go bold and say Braun leads KU in both scoring and rebounding Tuesday, which doesn’t seem like too much of a stretch given these particular circumstances.
Last game prediction: Kansas 65, USC 62 (Actual: USC 85-51) ❌
2020-21 final record vs. spread: 11-18
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 130-105-3 (55%)
This story was originally published November 9, 2021 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Quick Scout: Can Kansas Jayhawks outrun their concerns vs. Michigan State Spartans?."
